INTEL’S BIG BET

CEO says 18A is the “biggest bet we have ever made”

INTEL’S CEO PAT GELSINGER had a big plan in 2021—that the company would produce five process nodes in four years, giving it process leadership. That time is nearly up, with Intel 7 appearing in Alder Lake and then Raptor Lake, and Intel 4 appearing at the end of last year in the processor tiles on the Meteor Lake. Intel 20A has yet to appear, but is due to debut with Arrow Lake later this year. That leaves the final piece, Intel 18A, due next year.

It was an ambitious and risky plan, so risky that Gelsinger has admitted that “this is the biggest bet we have ever made as a company, because it also puts incredible stress on the financials of the company.” Yikes, sounds serious, although it seems unlikely. 18A is the process that Gelsinger hopes will make Intel the second biggest customer foundry in the world, usurping Samsung.

Intel has just held its inaugural Foundry Services event, where it revealed that it had signed a deal with Microsoft on a future processor project (our guess is AI) that will use 18A. Intel also raised its estimate for the foundry business earnings from $10 billion to $15 billion, probably not unconnected. It also updated its roadmap, the first significant update since 2021. It introduced the 14A process, due in 2026, and beyond that, Intel 10A for 2027. If these see the light, then Intel will have surpassed TSMC—in process nodes, anyway. It’s due to hit 2nm next year, or possibly the year after, with 1.4nm to follow.

All this magic is thanks to new ASML high-NA lithography machines (165 tons and $380 million each), which have just had what is termed ‘first light’, proving it is functionally operational, and the optics are working properly. Intel is famously the first customer for these.