Don’t expect magic from the Fitz-Gailey reunion
You could make a strong case that Ryan Fitzpat
rick has more familiarity with new Dolphins offensive coordinator Chan Gailey than any other active NFL quarterback, considering Fitzpatrick spent three seasons with Gailey in Buffalo (where Gailey was head coach) and two with Gailey on the New York Jets (where Gailey was offensive coordinator).
Of Gailey’s last 80 games calling plays for an NFL team, Fitzpatrick started 72 of them.
That experience — coupled with the lack of an offseason program for Tua Tagovailoa to gain on-field experience in Miami’s system — makes Fitzpatrick the clear favorite to be the Dolphins’ starting quarterback to open the 2020 season.
But there’s a difference between knowing an offensive coordinator’s system and consistently playing well in that system.
And that’s a distinction that must be drawn with Fitzpatrick and Gailey.
Fact is, Fitzpatrick’s body of work under Gailey is comparable to his body work in the years he didn’t work with Gailey.
In some ways, it’s worse. And that often gets overlooked because Fitzpatrick had one (only one) really good season with Gailey.
Some points to consider:
Fitzpatrick has an 80.9 passer rating in five years with Gailey. That’s worse than his passer rating without him. Overall, Fitzpatrick’s career passer rating is 81.6.
Fitzpatrick was Gailey’s starting quarterback for 11 games one year (the 2016 season with the Jets), 13 games once and 16 games in three others. In those five seasons, their teams were 24th, 25th, 10th, 14th and 19th in total offense.
Fitzpatrick has thrown a pass in 13 of his 15 NFL seasons, and in each of those 13 seasons, he threw between 135 and 569 passes.
If you rank those 13 seasons by interceptions thrown, Fitzpatrick’s five seasons with Gailey would rank first through fifth worst in most interceptions thrown, with 23, 17, 16, 15 and 15. That’s the bad news.
The good news: Four of his five seasons with Gailey would rank one through four on his list of TDs thrown in a season: 31,
24, 24 and 23.
In the 13 years in which he has thrown a pass, Fitzpatrick’s five seasons with Gailey would rank third, sixth, eighth, ninth and 12th in passer rating.
In completion percentage, his seasons with Gailey would rank third, sixth, seventh, 10th and 11th.
And then there’s the issue of winning percentage, which is as much a reflection of the team around him as the quarterback.
For what it’s worth, Fitzpatrick was 29-43 in his starts with Gailey (a 40.2 winning percentage). That’s barely ahead of his 39.5 career winning percentage as a starter.
So what should we draw from this?
In a season with no offseason program, it’s helpful that Fitzpatrick is working with a coordinator with whom he has a history. The learning curve will be limited.
But to expect Fitzpatrick to greatly outperform his 2019 Dolphins season alongside offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea isn’t realistic. Keep in mind that his 62 completion percentage and 85.5 passer rating for Miami last season were well above his averages in five years with Gailey.
So here’s the other lesson: When Tagovailoa is ready to start, start him. Don’t be under some wrong impression that Fitzpatrick is suddenly going to become a clearly above-average quarterback now that he’s reunited with Gailey.
He was that (clearly above average) in one of his five seasons with Gailey (a 10-6 season for the Jets in 2015, when he had 31 TD passes and 15 interceptions).
But for the majority of his career with Gailey, Fitzpatrick was a barely average or belowaverage quarterback. To expect more this season would be setting yourself up for disappointment.
CHATTER
The Dolphins, to this point,
A have opted not to aggressively pursue any of the remaining free agents, including cornerback Logan Ryan or Pro Bowl guard
Larry Warford. In exchange for authorizing larger practice squads, the NFL is expected to require teams to bring 75 to 80 players to camp instead of the usual 90 to help slightly control the spread of COVID; Miami has 87 under contact.
Pro Football Focus put to
A gether a team of players who performed best in the fourth quarter of games with a margin of eight points or fewer (and overtime) and named new Dolphins linebacker Kyle Van Noy
(and Tennessee’s Harold Lan
dry) as the edge players on that team.
PFF noted Van Noy had the best year of his career with the Patriots in his first year in a fulltime edge role, and 12 of his career-high 60 pressures came during those clutch plays.
ABC/ESPN lead college
A football analyst Kirk Herbstreit on ex-Alabama defensive tackle
Raekwon Davis, the Dolphins’ pick at No. 56 in the draft: “He gets the award for the most intimidating player in college football. [But] he didn’t produce the way he looks. He’s got to be more of a playmaker when he goes into the NFL and live up to the ability he has.”
Indiana Pacers guard Victor
A
Oladipo’s decision to opt out of the NBA restart is a double-edge sword for the Heat. On one hand, his absence makes it easier for the fourth-seeded Heat to beat Indiana in their two seeding games Aug. 10 and Aug. 14 and stay ahead of the No. 5 Pacers, who are two games back of Miami.
On the other hand, No. 6 Philadelphia now has a better chance of finishing ahead of Indiana — the teams are tied — and setting up a potential No. 4-No. 5 first-round series with Miami. The Pacers would be the more favorable matchup for Miami, especially with the 76ers saying Joel Embiid and Ben
Simmons are fully healthy again and in good shape.
A No surprise: Heat players returned in “world-class shape and fitness level,” coach Erik
Spoelstra said. “If we can use our conditioning level and our depth as an advantage in a sprint like situation, that would play to our strengths for sure.”
Goran Dragic put it this way: “Since we’re home all the time [since mid-March], a lot of players give in to habits of sitting, watching TV. I told myself I am not going to be one of them.”
As of midway through last
A week, UM players were told that the school hadn’t had a single football player test positive for COVID-19, according to three sources. But attendance at workouts has been less than capacity. Clemson, conversely, has had 37 positive COVID results.
The Marlins are eager to see
A how Pablo Lopez responds now that he is further removed from shoulder problems that limited him last season. He was 5-5 with a 4.23 ERA in 14 starts before the injury and 0-3, 7.01 in seven starts after returning last year.
“To me, the whole thing with Lopez is mental,” a big-league scout said. “He needs to get mentally tougher. He’s almost too nice.”