What history tells us about how to judge Tagovailoa
Because Dolphins legend
Dan Marino was immediately elite from the start, and because Chargers rookie Justin Herbert (the quarterback drafted immediately after Tua Tagovailoa) has been very good (12 touchdown passes, three interceptions), you might get discouraged if Tagovailoa’s first NFL start on Sunday — or if some of his first few starts — aren’t spectacular.
Some advice: Don’t be! Do not make any grand conclusions from Sunday or, for that matter, if the results are a mix of good and bad in the next month.
History shows a handful of
Hall of Fame QBs were mediocre to awful as rookie starters.
To get a sense of how the most prolific quarterbacks of the modern era played in their debut — and their first five NFL starts — I analyzed the top 10 QBs on the NFL’s all-time yardage list who started as rookies. I also looked at six Pro Bowl quarterbacks drafted in the past decade who had at least one start as a rookie
( Andrew Luck, Pat Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson).
I considered only rookies, not elite QBs ( Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Aaron
Rodgers) who didn’t start at all as rookies.
Here’s what I determined:
Of these 16 quarterbacks who
A started at least one game as rookie, only four (Marino, Matt
Ryan, Carson Palmer and Newton) had a great first game and one other (Jackson) was pretty good, posting only a 70 passer rating but rushing 26 times for 119 yards in a win over Cincinnati.
Mahomes, in his only start as a rookie, wasn’t bad (22 for 35 for 284 yards, no touchdowns, one pick, 76.4 rating) in a season finale against Denver.
Ben Roethlisberger (12-22163-1 TD, 1 pick) wasn’t great in his debut as a rookie starter but Pittsburgh won a defensive struggle against the Dolphins anyway.
The other nine? Pretty underwhelming. Peyton Manning threw three picks (58.6 rating) in his first start as a rookie, a loss to the Dolphins. His brother, Eli, was 17 for 37 with a 45.1 rating in a loss to Atlanta in his first start.
John Elway went 1 for 8 for 14 yards with a 0.00 passer rating in his rookie starting debut and yet his team somehow won. Matt Stafford was dismal in his debut (27.4 passer rating in a loss).
Luck (52.9 passer rating), Watson (60.4), Wilson (62.5), Drew Bledsoe (14-for-30-148) and Vinnie Testaverde (22-47-two TDs, two picks) were underwhelming. All lost except Watson, who won in a defensive struggle.
The quality of the defense that the QB is facing obviously is a big factor. Tagovailoa will face a Rams defense that is second in points allowed per game.
A Two quick asides: The average NFL passer rating has jumped from 77.3 in 1990 to 78.1 in 2000 to 84.1 in 2010 to 94.1 this year, so I’m not using passer rating as the determinant of “quality” starts.
And rules changes in the past decade have generally benefited NFL passing games, which has translated to more early success for quarterbacks, as we’re seeing with Herbert, whose 308 passing yards per game are most ever by a rookie and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, whose 289 are secondmost. But other high picks in recent years — such as Josh Allen and Sam Darnold — struggled initially as rookies.
What’s realistic to expect in Tagovailoa’s first five games as a starter?
Among these QBs in our survey, only two (Marino and Roethlisberger) were exceptional in their first five starts as rookies. (Mahomes was, too, but four of those starts were in his second season.)
Marino was 4-1, with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions in his first five rookie starts. Roethlisberger also was 4-1, with seven TDs, two picks and passer ratings that rose every week, to 125 and 126 in starts four and five.
Jackson was 4-1 and very good because of the rushing element.
Ryan, Wilson and Watson were above average, with three very good games and two subpar ones.
Newton, Luck and Bledsoe were 2-3 and pretty average, not awful but far from great.
Here’s who was awful in their first five starts: Peyton Manning (4 TDs, 12 picks) and Eli Manning (3 TDs, 7 picks, 0-5 record, 4 for 18 for 27 yards in one game against Baltimore), Elway (1 TD, 5 picks), Palmer (4 TDs, 8 picks) and Stafford (3 TDs, 7 picks).
Here’s the takeaway: The majority of the quarterbacks of recent vintage who became Pro Bowlers (Jackson, Ryan, Wilson, Watson) had at least three good games in their first five starts as rookies.
I was also curious about this: Have any high draft picks who were busts fooled everybody with a great first start as a rookie?
Of the eight biggest disappointments this century among quarterbacks selected in the top 10 (minimum one start as a rookie, which disqualified Jake Locker), only Marcus Mariota was great in his first game, posting a perfect 158.3 passer rating against Tampa.
Joey Harrington and Vince Young were dismal in their first rookie starts; Blaine Gabbert and David Carr were below average; Blake Bortles was decent; and JaMarcus Russell and Matt Lineart were pretty good in losses.
My conclusions from all of this:
A) If Tagovailoa isn’t very good Sunday, don’t worry. Plenty of great QBs have struggled in their debuts.
B) If Tagovailoa doesn’t show anything over the next five games or struggles in four of them, be concerned, because all of the very good QBs who started as rookies in this past decade had at least one very good game in their first five and most had more than that.
The defenses he will face, after the Rams, are rated 20th (Arizona), 19th (Chargers), ninth (Denver) and 23rd (Jets).
C) If Tagovailoa is extraordinary Sunday, the odds are slim that he will be a big disappointment based on recent history, though Mariota is the outlier.
Regardless of how the next few games go, starting him now “is the right thing to do because every snap Tua takes for the rest of the season is going to make the Miami Dolphins better in 2021,” NFL Network analyst and former Baltimore Ravens coach Brian Billick said.
CHATTER
Coach Manny Diaz believes his locker-room problem has been fixed. He said this UM team has more team-first players and past ones had “guys more concerned about themselves. Getting better people, more likeminded people we figured would help our level of success. That has proven to be true.”… UM receivers coach Rob Likens said he doubts highly regarded fourstar freshmen Daz Worsham will play much this year barring an injury; he must get stronger in the weight room.
Pat Riley will always be appreciative to Dwyane Wade for his role in the Jimmy Butler pickup; Wade recommended the Heat to Butler: “I want to throw out kudos to Dwyane Wade, obviously, Father Prime and a dear, dear, dear player, always very close to my heart that sort of helped us in selling Jimmy on that.”
Before parting ways with the Marlins over a big proposed pay cut, Michael Hill told me that he was the one who “held the line” on demanding outfielder Griffin Conine from Toronto for Jonathan Villar in July.
“We were ecstatic to think we got a top-10 prospect in return for an expiring contract. Griffin is a very good athlete,” Hill said.