Dolphins have options to boost offense in draft
As the Dolphins reach the midway point of their season on Sunday, a look at where the rebuild stands on offense, by position:
Quarterback: Every
A one hopes and expects Tua Tagovailoa will be Miami’s long-term QB and face of the franchise.
That’s the plan. But what if Tagovailoa struggles over the next nine weeks (or is badly injured) and the Houston Texans’ firstround pick that’s due the Dolphins lands in the top five?
It’s difficult to envision the Texans being bad enough to snag the first overall pick (assuredly Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence) or the second (likely Ohio State’s Justin Fields). And the worst teams (Jets, Giants, Jaguars) seemingly wouldn’t let Fields slip past them if they pick No. 2.
There are two other quarterbacks considered potential top 10 picks: North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and BYU’s Zach Wilson.
Lance is playing in only one game this season, a win over Central Arkansas in which he finished 15 for 30 for 149 yards and two touchdowns and one interception (the first of his career) and ran for 143 yards and 2 TDs on 14 carries.
Lance’s career stats are ridiculous: 30 touchdown passes and that one interception. He ran for 1,100 yards in 2019.
“Great prospect and a potential top-10 pick,” ESPN’s Mel Kiper said of the 6-4 Lance.
Wilson has seen his stock skyrocket this season and now has 21 touchdowns passes and two interceptions.
Unless the Texans surprisingly out-stink the Jets, Giants, Falcons and others to land a top-two pick, here’s the best realistic scenario for Miami: Lance or Wilson is on the board when Houston’s pick arises, and a team in love with either offers Miami its firstrounder and a second round pick to move down very slightly to draft Lance or Wilson. Such a scenario could give Miami two firstrounders and three secondrounders in April’s draft.
Coach Brian Flores this week denied an ESPN report that Miami is starting Tagovailoa to make a determination if he’s their future at the position, aware that Houston will have a high pick. “We brought Tua here because we believe in him,” Flores said.
Tagovailoa is the Dolphins’ guy unless surprising circumstances lead them on an unexpected path. If he struggles badly, perhaps Miami would consider Wilson or Lance in the first round or UF’s Kyle Trask in the second round. But the odds are against that, just as the odds are against Houston being bad enough to land a two-top pick (Lawrence or Fields).
A Running back: Three things appear clear: 1) Jordan Howard almost assuredly won’t be back; his $5 million 2021 salary and cap hit both disappear by releasing him. 2) Myles Gaskin will be back and should return as a rotational back. He’s due just $850,000 in the third year of his rookie deal. 3) This position will be addressed in the draft, probably during the first two days.
The Dolphins should have a choice of very good backs in next year’s draft: Clemson’s Travis
Etienne, Oklahoma State’s Chubba Hubbard, Alabama’s Najee Harris, Penn State’s Journey Brown, Memphis’ Kenneth Gainwell and Oregon’s CJ Verdell.
Kiper had Etienne 23rd among all prospects in his preseason rankings.
ESPN’s Todd McShay has him 19th: “Etienne has above-average speed with an explosive second gear when he hits daylight.”
McShay says Hubbard
“is a home-run hitter with the burst to take it to the house any time he touches the football.”
Miami hasn’t broached a contract extension with Matt Breida, who likely needs a very strong finish to elicit a contract offer from the team.
A Wide receiver: At this point, there’s a good chance Miami invests one of its five picks in the first two days (two first-rounders, two second-rounders and a third) on a receiver, unless Preston Williams can somehow transform himself from inconsistent to consistently excellent over these next two months.
Unless DeVante Parker has a serious injury, Miami figures to keep him in 2021 on his current contract, which carries a $7.8 million base salary and $11 million cap number. Williams will still be cheap in 2021, at $850,000, but is looking more like a No. 3 or No. 4 than a starter.
The 2021 NFL Draft class is again loaded at receiver, topped by LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase, Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith, Purdue’s Rondae Moore, Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman and Ohio State’s Chris Olave. All are projected for the first round.
Chase opted out of playing this season, but Kiper said: “He has two full seasons of awesome film that NFL teams can study. He’s stellar after the catch, breaking tackles and running away from defenders.” Kiper said Waddle is “electrifying with the ball in his hands and always appeared to be two or three yards open last season.”
Slot receiver must be addressed long term, with five internal options: Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns (both of whom opted out of this season), Antonio Callaway (six career catches from the slot), Lynn Bowden Jr. and Malcolm Perry.
Wilson and Hurns saw their 2020 contracts role over to 2021 after they opted out. Wilson has a $5.2 million cap hit if he’s on the team in 2021 and $2.8 million in dead money is he’s cut. Hurns has a
$2.9 million cap hit if he’s on the team in 2021 and $2.1 million in dead money if he’s cut.
Bowden and Perry are signed for this and three additional seasons, at low money, but must prove they’re more than gimmick guys. Callaway — on the practice squad — can be retained easily for 2021 if he impresses in the weeks ahead.
Jakeem Grant, who can play slot and boundary, must continue to play well to assure his return. He’s due $3.6 million in 2021, with a $4.8 million cap hit. There’s still a $1.8 million cap hit for Grant if he’s cut next year. His excellent work on returns makes his return more likely than not.
Tight end: No Pro
A Bowlers but three competent players in Mike Gesicki (ranked top 8 in tight end receiving yards over the past year until he had limited targets the past two games), Durham Smythe (solid blocker and improved receiver) and
Adam Shaheen (skilled receiver and a competent blocker, signed through 2022).
Could the Dolphins use a well-rounded All-Pro? Sure. But this group is good enough to win with.
Gesicki will be entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2021 ($1.4 million base salary). Gesicki has improved as a blocker, but teams still suspect Miami will be passing when Gesicki is on the field. Smythe, valued by this coaching staff, will earn $920,000 next season in the final year of his contract.
If the Dolphins take the best-available-player route on the first two days, there would be tight end options from a group including Penn State’s Pat Freiemuth and UF’s Kyle Pitts (both are possible firstrounders), UM’s Brevin Jordan, Iowa State’s Charlie Kolar and Washington’s Cade Otton.
Offensive line: All
A three of their rookie draft picks (left tackle Austin Jackson, right tackle Robert Hunt and guard Solomon Kindley) have been very competent, with potential to be long-term starters. All have been very good in pass protection but need work in the run game; that’s better than the reverse.
If Houston’s pick falls in a top-five range where elite Oregon left tackle prospect Peni Sewell is available, that could be worth a discussion because of his dominance. That’s why it will be helpful to see how Jackson plays when he returns from a foot injury.
The biggest looming questions: 1) Will Hunt or Jesse Davis be the right tackle in 2021?
2) Does Ted Karras, on a one-year, $3 million deal, do enough to warrant a return in 2021 and potentially beyond? Pro Football Focus rates Karras just
25th among all centers but his pass blocking has been very good (no sacks, five pressures). Coaches have praised Michael Deiter’s work in his move to center, but he hasn’t played the position in an NFL game.