Miami-Dade’s ‘Republican Cuban establishment’ regains power in Florida, Washington
After 2018 losses, Cuban-American Republicans in Miami-Dade County won races for Congress, state House and state Senate in the Nov. 3 elections.
About three months before Election Day, Miami Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell — an Ecuadorian immigrant who in 2018 defeated a Cuban-American Republican in one of the nation’s most competitive swing districts — was caught on video marveling at her breakthrough.
“No one thought we’d be able to take the Republican Cuban establishment that has taken ahold of Florida politics for more than 20 years,” Mucarsel-Powell told a group of supporters.
It didn’t last long.
After two short years in office, Mucarsel-Powell lost her seat on Nov. 3 to Carlos Gimenez, Miami-Dade County’s Republican Cuban-American mayor. Democrats also lost control of another Miami-Dade congressional district they’d won just two years earlier as U.S. Rep. Donna Shalala fell to Cuban-American Republican Maria Elvira Salazar.
The losses — which replenished conservative Cuban-Americans’ presence in Washington — were two of the biggest for a diverse crop of newly elected Miami-Dade Democrats in what some strategists are calling a “bloodbath” election. Instead of affirming recent victories by the left, Miami-Dade voters this year reversed years of Democratic gains and restored Cuban-American Republican hegemony in Florida’s most populous county.
“It was the Cuban-American, super-voter bloc that just came out in high numbers, that was fiercely loyal to President [Donald] Trump, and delivered a win for Cuban Americans in those congressional districts,” said Michael Hernández, an analyst at Miami’s Spanish-language Telemundo 51 TV station.
Not only did conservative Cuban Americans win back the congressional districts they lost in 2018 — including the seat Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the first Cuban American elected to Congress, had held for nearly 30 years — they came out ahead in two crucial Florida Senate races against Cuban-American Democrats.
Conservative Cuban-American candidates also did well in state House races. Four incumbents easily beat back challengers, two candidates won competitive races for open seats, and one challenger beat a Colombian-American Democrat to take back a seat that
flipped blue in 2018.
That is not to say that the grip Cuban Republicans have held for decades on Miami-Dade politics was greatly diminished before Tuesday’s election. Nor were all Republican victories in Miami-Dade County by Cuban Americans, or all Cuban-American Republicans successful.
“This was not just a Cuban-American victory,” said Miami-Dade Republican Party Chairman Nelson Diaz, noting that the party’s candidates also received support from a diverse group of voters. “It was everybody: A broad coalition of Hispanics from all parties voting Republican and voting to prevent socialism from reaching our shores.”
Likewise, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, who like Diaz is Cuban American, told the Miami Herald that while “it’s an amazing thing to see so many Cuban-Americans in Congress,” the results of the election were a reflection of a diverse blue-collar electorate flexing its muscle.
“Elections in South Florida are a clear indicator that the future of the Republican Party is a multi-ethnic, working class party,” Rubio said.
But the strengthening of Miami-Dade’s Cuban-American GOP political class followed a campaign dominated by talk of socialism and identity politics, with Mucarsel-Powell’s opponents using that isolated, 19-second clip of her comments about the “Republican Cuban establishment” to attack her. And that new muscle has political implications for the Florida Legislature, particularly the Florida Senate, where a stronger Republican majority will convene this legislative session should Cuban-American Republican Ileana Garcia hold onto her tiny lead in Florida’s 37th Senate District during an ongoing recount.
The results also may indicate complications for Democratic Presidentelect Joe Biden, who has said he plans to restore former President Barack Obama’s Cuba policies “in large part” after Trump restricted travel to the island and ended remittances. Though Republicans are in the minority in the U.S. House, the new Cuban-American Republican coalition in Miami-Dade County is sure to put up more resistance than one that would have included Mucarsel-Powell and Shalala.
One more wrinkle: Hernández, the Telemundo 51 analyst, noted that redistricting is expected to yield two additional congressional districts for Florida, one of which is expected in Miami-Dade County. He said a lasting shift to the right, politically, could create even more power for Republicans.
“I would hope that the election results in South Florida show the Biden administration that the Obama-era Cuba policy doesn’t work,” said Cesar Gonzalez, chief of staff to Republican U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who since early 2019 has been Miami-Dade’s only Cuban-American representative in the House. “I would think the administration would say, ‘We just got a wholesale 22-point freaking turnaround’ ” when deciding to make policy changes that matter to South Florida voters.
Former Miami Congressman Joe Garcia, a Democrat who led the Cuban American National Foundation lobby before a twoyear stint in Congress from 2013 to 2015, disagreed that Obama’s Cuba policy hurt Democrats. He said if that were true, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton wouldn’t have beaten Trump by 290,000 votes in Miami-Dade County four years ago, winning half the voters in the heavily Cuban city of Hialeah in the first election after Obama normalized relations with the island’s Communist government.
Garcia said Biden can still pursue a new agenda with Cuba, but will need to bring Cuban Americans to the table. If not, Garcia said Biden could force Democratic congressional candidates in Miami to take more conservative positions on Cuba policy.
“If Cuba policy is not engaged and done in an effective way early, then the people who run for those seats are going to learn from the lessons of the polling and will inevitably go to the right on this policy to neutralize [Republicans],” Garcia said. “Which would be unfortunate.”