Quality guards should be available at No. 20
The Heat may not need to draft a guard in the first round Wednesday, but if a quality backcourt player falls to No. 20, it might make sense.
With Wednesday’s NBA Draft just days away, it’s time to take a closer look at the options the Miami Heat will have with the 20th pick in the first round.
The Miami Herald’s three-part NBA Draft preview begins with a look at the guards who are expected to be selected in the Heat’s range.
The guard candidates include North Carolina’s Cole Anthony, San Diego State’s Malachi Flynn, Duke’s Tre Jones, Alabama’s Kira Lewis, Arizona’s Nico Mannion, Kentucky’s Tyrese Maxey, Stanford’s Tyrell Terry and Michigan State’s Cassius Winston. RJ Hampton, who skipped college basketball to play overseas for the New Zealand Breakers, is also on the list.
That’s a long list of nine guards. A few will surely already be off the board when it’s the Heat’s turn to pick at No. 20, but the point is there should still be quality guard options for Miami to choose from if it goes that route.
LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton and Killian Hayes are widely considered the best guards in the 2020 draft class, and they will almost definitely be selected before it’s Miami’s turn to pick if it doesn’t trade up.
WHAT TO KNOW
While it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see any of these nine guards drop to the Heat, it seems like Lewis and Maxey have shot up draft boards in recent weeks. Most mock drafts project Lewis and Maxey to be taken ahead of Miami’s selection.
Lewis is a 6-3 combo guard who averaged 18.5 points on 45.9 percent shooting from the field and 36.6 percent shooting on threes, 4.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists as a sophomore
at Alabama last season.
The 19-year-old is a speedy attacker who can get to the rim, but also projects to be a solid outside shooter as he made 80.2 percent of his free throws last season (usually a quality long-term indicator of a player’s shooting potential). But at 165 pounds, Lewis will need to add weight to his frame to reach his full NBA potential.
Maxey (6-3, 198), who turned 20 on Nov. 4, averaged 14 points while shooting 42.7 percent from the field, 29.2 percent from three-point range and 83.3 percent from the foul line, 4.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists as a freshman at Kentucky last season. He enters the draft with the scouting report of a versatile guard who can score around the basket and is expected to be a solid defender at the NBA level. The big question regarding Maxey’s game has to do with his outside shooting, as he shot just below 30 percent on threes last season at Kentucky. But there’s some optimism that he’ll improve in that area, as he made an adjustment in his shooting form in recent months and has proven to be an efficient free-throw shooter.
It’s worth noting that Heat president Pat Riley was among NBA executives, scouts and coaches who watched Kentucky’s virtual pro day Thursday. Along with Maxey, the
Heat has also shown interest in Kentucky guards Immanuel Quickley and Ashton Hagans during the pre-draft process.
The other seven candidates on the list are more realistic options for the Heat at No. 20.
Anthony (6-3, 190) averaged 18.5 points while shooting 38 percent from the field and 34.8 percent on threes, 5.7 rebounds and four assists as a freshman at North Carolina last season. He was forced to miss time after undergoing December surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus in his right knee, but he returned to game action in
February. The 20-yearold’s biggest strength is his ability to score points at all three levels of the court, and he also flashed the potential to be a quality perimeter defender. The potential is there for Anthony, who is among those who worked out privately for the Heat in advance of the draft, to become a professional bucket-getter.
Flynn (6-1, 185) is one of the more NBA-ready prospects in this group of guards. As a 22-year-old who averaged 17.6 points on 44.1 percent shooting from the field and 37.3 percent on threes, 4.5 rebounds and 5.1 assists as a redshirt junior at San Diego State last season, Flynn features a relatively polished offensive game. The downside is these types of prospects usually don’t have as much upside as younger ones with more potential to grow.
Jones, 20, averaged 16.2 points while shooting 42.3 percent from the field and 36.1 percent on threes, 4.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists as a sophomore at Duke last season. Pick No. 20 is probably a little high for Jones, as most mock drafts have him going in the second round. But he’s on the list of potential first-round guard options because the Heat interviewed him during the pre-draft process, according to a league source, and Jimmy Butler named Jones (6-3, 185) as one of his two favorite players to watch — along with Tyler Herro — last season.
Mannion (6-3, 190) averaged 14 points while shooting 39.2 percent from the field and 32.7 percent from three-point range, 2.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists as a freshman at Arizona last season. He’s not the most NBA-ready prospect in this group, but the 19-year-old has an interesting combination of creative ballhandling ability, playmaking skills and shooting potential. This would be an upside pick for whichever team takes him.
One of the most intriguing prospects in this group of guards is Terry, who averaged 14.6 points while shooting 44.1 percent from the field and 40.8 percent on threes, 4.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists as a freshman at Stanford last season. The 20-year-old is considered one of the best shooters in the draft, and he can also score and create off the dribble. Terry is undersized at 6-2 and 174 pounds, which will concern some teams. But there’s definitely untapped potential here.
Like Flynn, Winston is another NBA-ready prospect. Winston, 22, averaged 18.6 points while shooting 44.8 percent from the field and 43.2 percent on threes, 2.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists as a senior at Michigan State last season. While there may not be too much upside with this type of prospect, Winston (6-1, 185) is probably a player who can immediately slide in and log solid minutes as a backup point guard as an NBA rookie.
But Hampton is a pure upside pick after bypassing the college route and spending last season overseas with the New Zealand Breakers, where he averaged 8.8 points on 40.7 percent shooting, 3.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists in 15 games. At 6-5 and 188 pounds, Hampton is one of the most physically gifted guard prospects in this year’s draft. But it may take some time to unlock his full potential, as his outside shooting remains a work in progress.
WHAT ARE
OTHERS SAYING?
ESPN’s latest mock draft has Maxey (10th to Phoenix Suns), Hampton (16th to Portland Trail Blazers) and Lewis (18th to Dallas Mavericks) being picked before the Heat’s turn at No. 20.
The Ringer’s latest mock draft has Lewis (10th to Suns), Hampton (14th to Boston Celtics), Maxey (15th to Orlando Magic) and Terry (19th to Brooklyn Nets) being selected ahead of Miami.
But The Athletic’s latest mock draft, which was put together in October, has Maxey falling to the Heat at No. 20.
“If you buy into Maxey being a secondary ballhandler who can shoot, this pick makes sense,” The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie wrote as part of his mock draft that has Maxey going to Miami. “Kendrick Nunn has not been reliable in the playoffs, and Goran Dragic is a free agent this year. Maxey is a tough kid with a terrific, powerful frame that looks like that of a free safety. He’s 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-6 wingspan. That often fits in Miami. He also has a real personality to him and is thought to be a great kid and a tremendous worker. More than the non-basketball stuff, though, Maxey is a real threat as an on-ball scoring guard with great craft. He finishes well at the basket, has a terrific floater game and does a great job getting downhill to get into the paint. He’s also a strong on-ball defender.
“Ultimately, the big question here is the jumper and what level it gets to. Everyone around the industry is agreed that he is a better shooter than his 29 percent mark from three showed last year. But is he a 35 percent shooter? Does he have a chance to get up to 39 percent in the right circumstance? That number is going to tell the tale of how far Maxey goes in his career as a useful player.”
BOTTOM LINE
FOR HEAT
If the Heat wants to add another guard to the roster via the draft, there will be options to choose from at No. 20. The question is: Does Miami really need another guard or is it time to fill a bigger need in the first round?
The Heat is expected to make re-signing Dragic a top priority this offseason, and it’s going to have to find more playing time for rising star Herro. Nunn is also under contract with Miami for this upcoming season. Throw in the fact that Butler plays with the ball in his hands a lot as a wing and the Heat also runs much of its offense through All-Star center Bam Adebayo, and a guard is probably not what Miami needs most this offseason.
However, if a guard prospect with perceived upside, like Lewis, Maxey, Terry or Hampton, drops to the Heat, that might be hard to pass up on. With Dragic entering his 13th NBA season, adding a first-round talent at guard could give Miami some degree of insurance even if Dragic re-signs with the Heat.