Marlins’ test: Show success not a 1-year anomaly
Don Mattingly doesn’t want to under sell the challenges that dominated the 2020 Major League Baseball season for the league as a whole and his Marlins club specifically.
The league played a 60-game slate and an expanded postseason under the shadow of the coronavirus pandemic. Mattingly’s Marlins were hit hard by COVID-19 early in the season, with 18 players testing positive three games into the season that gave his team hurdle after hurdle to overcome over the ensuing two months.
But Mattingly, fresh off being named the National League’s manager of the year after guiding the Marlins to a winning record and a playoff berth despite the obstacles they faced, chose to take the glasshalf-full approach to the weirdest season he’s been part of during his nearly four decades in the major leagues.
The Marlins, for the first time since 2009, had a winning record. The Marlins, for the first time since 2003, were a playoff team. The Marlins, for the first time in a long time and the first time since the rebuild began, are showing signs that the franchise could be on the upswing.
So even with all the challenges on the field (like juggling a roster that used 61 players, including 25 rookies, and playing seven doubleheaders to make up for a week’s worth of lost games) and off (like spending four months away his family, including wife Lori and 5-year-old son Louie, to limit any potential COVID-19 exposure), Mattingly started to see the returns of a rebuild three years in the making.
It ended with celebrating at Yankee Stadium after clinching a playoff spot and more celebration at Wrigley Field a week later after sweeping the Chicago Cubs in the wild-card round before exiting in the National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves.
It ended with hope that this was the just the first of what the club hopes is many more trips to the postseason.
“This year was nothing compared to losing 100something games last year,” Mattingly said, referring to Miami’s NLworst 57-105 record in 2019. “Last year was rough. And so, you know, it feels good, and I talked to our players about turning the corner, we needed to turn it, it was time to turn the corner as far as what we what we’ve been through, it’s time to move forward.
“And those over hundred losses, that’s the tough part. It just feels good that we’re moving in the right direction.”
BUILDING ON SUCCESS
But challenges still lie ahead. Namely, the challenge to prove this wasn’t a one-year fluke, a facade of success created by a shortened season and an expanded playoff field.
Can the Marlins replicate their success in a full season?
Mattingly thinks so. As does CEO Derek Jeter, who credits Mattingly for helping navigate the club to its first winning record in 11 years.
“
His leadership and teamwork with staff and players were on display day in and day out in one of the most challenging seasons this sport has seen,” Jeter said. “... He continues to believe in our vision and invests in our young, talented players to help us work toward our goal of sustained success.”
But outside the Marlins organization, the jury is still out.
MLB.com ranked the Marlins’ roster as the thirdworst in baseball going solely off Wins Above Replacement rankings.
“It’s true that they made the expanded playoffs and beat the Cubs, it’s true that their young pitching is enviable and it’s also true their needle finally seems pointed in the right direction. But there was some evidence of over-performing in 2020, and the offense still seems to be a concern,” Mike Petriello wrote.
The Athletic ranked the Marlins 23rd in its offseason power rankings.
“Meh, let’s be honest. The Marlins small-sampled their way to the playoffs. C’mon. They had an even worse bullpen than the
Phillies, which is kind of incredible, and hitting home runs was a rare feat,” Nick Groke wrote, stating that what could make them plummet is “realizing they’re the Marlins.” “... They need work and a bunch more growth to get back to the postseason.”
PROSPECTS NEED TO STEP UP
Some of that growth will come from the continued development of cornerstones such as Miguel Rojas, Brian Anderson and Sandy Alcantara as well as the veteran presence provided by Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte and Jesus Aguilar.
But the Marlins also need their prospects, the backbone of this rebuild, to start pulling their weight too. Miami’s minor-league system ranked fifth in baseball according to MLB Pipeline following the MLB draft. They have five prospects ranked among the top 76 in baseball.
“The Marlins have the youngest team and easily the best collection of prospect talent in the NL East,” writes MLB.com’s Jim
Callis. “Their surprising performance this season could be the start of the longest run of sustained winning in franchise history.
Seven of the Marlins’ top-10 prospects made their MLB debuts in 2020 mostly to mixed success. Pitchers Sixto Sanchez and Trevor Rogers showed they can be part of a big-league rotation, but the position players mostly struggled in their first taste of the majors.
Miami’s top four hitting prospects to debut in 2020 — middle infielder Jazz Chisholm, outfielders Jesus Sanchez and Monte Harrison, and first baseman Lewin Diaz — hit a combined .144 (24 for 167) with three home runs, five doubles, a triple, 14 RBI, 20 runs scored and 67 strikeouts to 15 walks.
“It’s going to be an important year for us,” Mattingly said. “Our success with the position players was not as good as we’d like. Those guys have to get ready a little quicker. They’re going to be very important.”