Fins’ 2020 picks stack up well in hindsight
A“with the benefit of hindsight” perspective on the Dolphins’ first seven draft picks through three quarters of the season:
● Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at No. 5: You can reasonably debate whether Tagovailoa or sixth overall pick Justin Herbert will be the better quarterback long-term, but at the very least, Tagovailoa looks like a quality NFL starter, with the potential for much more.
In comparing the first five starts for quarterbacks who started multiple games as rookies and have had good careers, Tagovailoa (99.4 passer rating, 7 TDs, 0 picks, 4-1 record) has been just as good as Ben Roethlisberger; similar to Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson (Tua and those three all had three good games and two subpar ones in their first five); better than Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Drew Bledsoe and far better than Peyton Manning (4 TDs, 12 picks), Eli Manning (3 TDs, 7 picks, 0-5 record), John Elway (1 TD, 5 picks), Carson Palmer (4 TDs, 8 picks) and Matt Stafford (3 TDs, 7 picks).
Decision if we knew then what
we know now: I’d stick with Tagovailoa, but I could understand those opting for Herbert (23 TDs, 9 INTs, 94.2 rating, 2-9 record), but has cooled off recently and was shut out by New England last week. Nobody will know for another year.
● Left tackle Austin Jackson at No. 18: Receiver Justin Jefferson — picked 22nd — has produced big numbers in Minnesota (61 catches, 1,039 yards, seven touchdowns), but Jackson was an understandable choice because he might be able fill a need position for years.
Consider that Jackson has permitted only three sacks in nine games, compared with these sacks relinquished by the players picked ahead of him: Andrew Thomas (six), Mekhi Becton (five), Jedrick Wills (four) and Tristan Wirfs (one). Houston’s Laremy Tunsil, traded by Miami for a treasure trove of draft picks, has allowed two.
Among others (besides Jefferson) who were picked shortly after Jackson, Philadelphia receiver Jalen Reagor (20 catches, 256 yards) and Chargers linebacker Kenneth Murray (81 tackles, one sack in 12 starts) have contributed. Two who haven’t done much: Las Vegas cornerback Damon Arnette and Jacksonville linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson.
Decision if we knew then what
we know now: Jefferson would be my pick because he’s a Pro Bowl talent, but I also could justify sticking with Jackson because he plays a premium position that needed to be addressed and he shows promise.
● Cornerback Noah Igbinoghene at No. 30 (Miami originally had the 26th pick but traded down): When Byron Jones missed time with an injury, the rookie struggled badly in two games but played well both against Jacksonville and after Xavien Howard’s ejection against the Bengals. He has a bloated 138.8 passer rating in his coverage area, but the Dolphins believe he has the ball skills and athleticism to become a quality player. It’s too soon to definitively know.
Among players bypassed by Miami at 26 were linebacker Patrick Queen, who has 84 tackles as a Ravens starter.
The skill-position players selected just after Igbihoghene at 30 have performed favorably: running backs Clyde EdwardsHelaire (692 yards rushing on a 4.6 per carry and 30 receptions for Kansas City), D’Andre Swift (331 yards rushing on 4.7 per carry and 31 receptions for Detroit) and receivers Tee Higgins (53 catches for 729 yards and five touchdowns for Cincinnati) and Michael Pittman (31-376-1 TD for Indianapolis).
But cornerback Jeff Gladney, a starter for the Vikings picked at 31 right after Igbinoghene, has struggled, with a 126.4 passer rating in his coverage area and seven touchdowns allowed.
Decision if we knew then what
we know now: The pick likely would be Higgins or EdwardsHelaire if Miami stuck with Jackson over Jefferson at 18. The good news is Miami has the capital to find similar players to Higgins and Edwards-Helaire in a 2021 draft that’s deep in quality receivers and has at least three backs of similar quality.
FYI: Trading down with Green Bay from 26 to 30 netted Miami the 136th pick, which was dealt two days later with pick No. 141 for pick No. 111, which became guard Solomon Kindley.
● Offensive tackle Robert Hunt at 39: The rookie has been solid in seven starts, permitting only one sack in 248 pass blocking chances. And purely as a run blocker, PFF ranks him 40th among 81 qualifying tackles.
Of the players selected shortly after him, Pittsburgh receiver Chase Claypool (47 catches, 649 yards, eight TDs), Baltimore running back J.K. Dobbins (451 yards rushing, 5.4 average) and
Tampa safety Antoine Winfield (starter; 89.2 passer rating against, 69 tackles, two sacks) have been very good, and Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor (609 yards rushing, 4.1 average, 29 catches) and Jacksonville receiver Laviska Shenault (36-292) have been pretty good.
Houston defensive tackle Ross Blacklock (10 tackles in 11 games) has had a negligible impact while Cleveland safety Grant Delpit tore an Achilles tendon in training camp and is out for the year.
Decision if we knew then what we know now: Claypool would be the pick if I didn’t draft Jefferson or Higgins earlier, Hunt the pick otherwise. Either way, Miami should have no regrets on Hunt, who has the look of a multiyear starter.
● Defensive tackle Raekwon Davis at 56: There are very encouraging signs the past month; PFF rates Davis fourth best among all rookie defensive linemen in 2020.
Among players selected directly after Davis, production has been modest for Rams receiver Van Jefferson (15 catches, 170 yards), Jets receiver Denzel Mims (19 catches, 324 yards) and Green Bay running back AJ Dillon (23 carries, 97 yards), Patriots linebacker Josh Uche (one sack, three tackles) and Minnesota guard Ezra Cleveland (five starts).
Decision if we knew then what we know now: I stick with the rapidly improving Davis; he can anchor a premium position (nose tackle) for the Dolphins for many years.
● Safety Brandon Jones at 70: The Dolphins know they have a smart player who can tackle (42 tackles, three for loss) and run. But he took a bad angle on a long Bengals TD last week and has permitted 20 of 23 passes thrown against him to be caught for 175 yards and a TD (a 112.9 passer rating in his coverage area).
Among those selected immediately after: Jacksonville defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton (30 tackles, six starts) and Buffalo running back Zack Moss (292 yards rushing, 4.1 per carry) have played pretty well. Saints linebacker Zack Baun, Tampa Bay running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike and Jets defensive end Jabari Zuniga have done little.
Decision if we knew then what
we know now: A case could still be made for Jones. It’s not like the Dolphins passed up a star.
● Guard Solomon Kindley at 111: As Fox’s Troy Aikman said, “He gets a couple years in the weight room, he’s going to be destroying people. He’s a mauler.”
Decision if we knew then what
we know now: Kindley would be the pick without hesitation.
CHATTER
● CBS’ Phil Simms on the Dolphins: “I think at this time next year we could be talking about them as a Super Bowl contender.
“Very young and very talented. It is a well-designed offense that is easy for a young quarterback to do well” in.
● Well above one quarter of UM’s scholarship football players have had COVID, but only Al Blades Jr. is known to have developed the heart condition (myocarditis) associated with COVID.
James Harden's interest in
A the Heat is mutual, a source said Saturday. But Philadelphia is considered the front-runner if Houston trades the All-NBA guard.