Dolphins have options with Texans’ first-round pick
Never in history has there been a final day of the regular season with a combo platter of two delicious Dolphins subplots in tandem: Miami trying to make the playoffs early in the day and then hoping to secure a top-three draft pick later in the day.
If Houston loses at home to Tennessee on Sunday, that Texans’ first-round pick — owned by Miami because of the Laremy Tunsil trade — will be third overall.
But if the Texans upset the Titans, the pick could end up as high as third or as low as ninth — or in between. The worst scenario for Miami: Houston wins and Atlanta, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Detroit, the Giants and Carolina all lose. Then Miami’s pick from Houston falls to ninth.
Miami also possesses its own first and second-round picks (the first stands 23nd at the moment) and Houston’s second-round pick, which will be in the midto-late 30s.
An early look at the top considerations at No. 3 for Miami if the Texans lose Sunday, with Jacksonville expected to select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence first overall and the Jets facing a tough decision at No. 2.
A Hope that a team picking in the top 15 of the draft covets a quarterback available at No. 3 (BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields or less likely, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance) and offers the Dolphins a treasure trove to move up.
The Jets could take one of those quarterbacks at No. 2 or could stick with Sam Darnold, trade down themselves, or possibly take elite Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell.
Only the Dolphins, Jets and Jaguars have two firstrounders in April’s draft, so the Dolphins moving down to acquire a third firstrounder in 2021 is unrealistic. But Miami — by moving down — could pick up another first-round pick in 2022 or, say, a secondand third-rounder in 2021.
The depth at receiver in this draft is strong enough that the Dolphins could afford to drop several spots and still land help there.
Pro Football Focus’ Austin Gayle said if the Dolphins pick third, “staying put should be a last resort …The value of the pick with Wilson/Fields available is too high to take a nonQB.”
So what teams who will or could pick in the first half of the first round need a quarterback? Perhaps Detroit, Carolina, the Giants, Philadelphia and Denver and definitely Washington and New England. But it would take one of those teams desperately wanting a QB left on the board at No. 3 and fearing a team picking soon after Miami could beat them to the punch.
Kiper has Fields third, Wilson 13th, Alabama quarterback Mac Jones 14th and Lance 16th.
Longtime draft analyst Dane Brugler, now with The Athletic, rates him the second-best prospect in this draft (he has Fields seventh and Lance ninth), adding: “There is no consensus No. 2 quarterback in this class, but Wilson emerged as the favorite for many around the league this season.”
Selecting Fields or Wilson: Miami picking another quarterback would be surprising — one Dolphins official laughed at the idea when I asked about it — but nothing can be completely ruled out with this regime. Keep in mind that while Fields and Wilson are good prospects, they aren’t better prospects than Tua Tagovailoa last year.
Pro Football Focus said this week: “There’s nothing forcing the Dolphins to move on from Tagovailoa if they draft another quarterback, as the team has ample other draft assets, talented young players and cap space to build around both quarterbacks without needing to trade one in.” Still, this would be an unexpected course for Miami; neither Fields nor Wilson is viewed as can’t miss.
Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith: Reuniting Tagovailoa with one of his playmakers — and filling Miami’s biggest need — would be a popular choice, and Smith has the résumé to validate a top-three pick: 98 catches for 1,511 yards and 17 touchdowns heading into Friday’s playoff game. He has 35 catches of 15-plus yards — seven more than anyone else in college football.
Kiper rates him fourth overall, behind Lawrence, Sewell and Fields.
Brugler rates Smith sixth, behind two other playmakers (LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase and UF tight end Kyle Pitts). “Aside from his unimpressive body type at 175 pounds, what is there not to love about Smith?” Brugler said. “He is dynamic and instinctive as a route runner. His ball skills are elite. And his natural polish at the position will make him an immediate playmaker in the NFL.”
A LSU receiver Chase:
If Miami opts for a receiver with Houston’s pick, this likely will be a Smith/ Chase choice, unless Houston beats Tennessee and both players are off the board when Miami picks or unless Miami trades into the 10-to-20 range. Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle — whom Kiper slots eighth overall — then would come into play if Miami picks, say, eighth to 15th.
Chase, 6-0, opted out of playing this season, but Kiper said: “He has two full seasons of awesome film that NFL teams can study. Chase, who caught 84 passes last season, leading the FBS with 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns, makes everything look easy. He’s stellar after the catch, breaking tackles and running away from defenders.”
Brugler mocks Chase third to Miami: “With his gear-changing acceleration and elite finishing skills, Chase would give the Dolphins’ offense an immediate weapon that should accelerate the development of Tua Tagovailoa.”
Sewell if the Jets don’t take him at No. 2: Though Austin Jackson started his rookie season strong and has been generally competent, no tackle in football has allowed as many quarterback pressures (35) in as few pass blocking snaps (478).
Those 35 pressures are
10th most among all NFL tackles. He has allowed only four sacks in 12 games, which isn’t atrocious for a rookie starter who was considered somewhat raw.
Among 83 qualifying offensive tackles, PFF rates Jackson 75th overall and 78th as a run-blocker.
If Sewell is the pick, Jackson could be moved to either guard or to right tackle (with Rob Hunt then moving to guard).
If Sewell is on the board, that likely means getting a receiver with Miami’s firstround pick (perhaps Minnesota’s Rashod Batemon, Mississippi’s Elijah Moore, LSU’s Terrace Marshall, Ohio State’s Chris Olave or UF’s Kadarius Toney) and waiting until the second round for a running back and defensive help.
Kiper rates Sewell the second best player in the draft behind Lawrence, noting “he dominated last season, winning the Outland Trophy as the college football’s best lineman. Sewell has everything NFL teams look for in a left tackle prospect.”
He allowed one sack combined in 2018 and ’19 and opted out of playing in 2020.
Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons: Kiper rates him sixth and Todd McShay third overall in this draft class; he opted out of playing this season. He had a combined 191 tackles — 19 for loss — 6.5 sacks and six forced fumbles in 2018 and 2019. “He has rare talent, though he has room to grow into the defense that picks him,” Kiper said. “Could end up as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense at the next level. It’s the versatility that makes him valuable, as he could also play inside linebacker in a 4-3.”
Other scenarios: If the pick falls between six and nine by virtue of Houston winning on Sunday or the Dolphins trading down, other options would include Pitts (Kiper has him seventh, but a skilled pseudo-receiver at tight end would be overlap with Mike Gesicki) and Alabama’s Waddle (was averaging 22.3 yards per catch with four TDs in four games before a high ankle sprain and fracture ended his season).
If Miami finds a QBneedy team and trades down to the nine to 15 range, names in play three would potentially include Waddle, Parsons if still available (Brugler slots him 10th), Notre Dame inside/ outside linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, cornerbacks Patrick Surtain Jr. (Alabama) and Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech) and UM defensive end Jaelan Phillips and an aforementioned receiver (perhaps Waddle if still available).