Longtime NFL evaluators mostly positive on Tua
What do longtime NFL evaluators believe Tua Tagovailoa can become after a rookie season in which he threw 11 touchdowns and five interceptions and produced an 87.1 passer rating, which was 26th, while playing alongside a mediocre supporting cast?
I solicited thoughts from four former general managers this past week. Some feedback from them and two former NFL quarterbacks who are now network commentators:
• Former Washington and Houston general manager Charley Casserly, now an analyst for NFL Network:
“Tua has the potential to be a good starter. I thought he was at a disadvantage because of his receivers. At times, he didn’t have any of his top-three guys. Also, his receivers don’t get great separation. He had a lot of tight window throws, which is a compliment to him.
“The best things he did were bootlegs and run-pass options. He got the ball out quick and was accurate in the games I evaluated. He didn’t push it downfield, but you don’t know what he’s supposed to do. When I talked to people who played, they had a positive [impression] and that he was a young guy learning. The question is what [does he become] when they have a full receiving corps and a running game and he takes the next step reading defenses.”
Last year, Casserly asked a bunch of Southeastern Conference coaches whether Joe Burrow (who went first to Cincinnati) or Tagovailoa was the better prospect and “it was dead even. One guy said those are the two best college quarterbacks they’ve seen in 10 years.”
But when he asked college coaches nationally the same question, Burrow got “by far more votes,” Casserly said.
• Former Denver Broncos general manager Ted Sundquist said he believes Tagovailoa can get a team to the playoffs but the unknown is “how far can he carry them once there. He’s a winner. That’s what he has going for him. If you build around this guy in the proper manner he will have a much better opportunity to thrive. Remember, Drew Brees hasn’t been the most athletic guy, but he was mature coming out. And Tua is a very mature young man. He’s going to be fine. He’s able to make the right throws.”
• Ex-general manager number three, who requested anonymity because he’s still involved in the league: “I think he can be a winning quarterback. You need to be patient and you need to get a better supporting cast. He needs a strong, stout offensive line with lots of playmakers. He could be successful with that template. He has the accuracy, anticipation to be a winning quarterback.”
• Ex-general manager number four, who requested anonymity because he’s still involved in the league, said he believes he can be a functional starter but “I’m sort of pessimistic about him being a star. He’s a smaller guy that has to win with his feet and his throwing.
“I don’t see Kyler Murray explosion in running to compensate for his size. He’s no Drew Brees; the accuracy hasn’t carried over from Alabama. When I watched him this year, he was short with some of his throws and late on some of his reads. But we’ll see. You can’t discount what he showed at Alabama. I’d rather have Justin Herbert, but I told you that before the draft.” (Which he did.)
• ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky: “Eleven touchdown passes, five interceptions with a subpar offensive line, subpar skill group, subpar scheme. Tua is not Russell Wilson when it comes to freestyling with the football.
“So build your football team like the Saints did. Tua’s game is accuracy, timing, anticipation, ball out and then the play-action pass. You know who else is?
Drew Brees.
“You got the third pick; don’t fall in love with the receivers. Build the offensive line, allow him to use motion, own the line of scrimmage, dominate the play-action pass, pick people apart with his brain and his arm. Tua will be a great player if you do it the right way, Miami.”
• Former NFL quarterback and No. 1 overall pick David Carr, now an NFL Network analyst: “Josh Allen and Tua aren’t the same type of players. Josh Allen has incredible physical abilities. He can do things most guys can’t do. “Tua is going to have to utilize bootlegs, getting out to the perimeter. He gets the ball out quick. I honestly think Tua is farther along in his first year than Josh Allen was. You’ve got your guy.”
Carr noted how former 49ers coach and NFL Network colleague Steve Mariucci compared Tagovailoa to Hall of Famer Steve Young — also a lefthanded quarterback — earlier this season. And Carr said he believes Miami can get Tagovailoa to produce Young-type production if he’s used correctly.
“You can utilize the same type of offense and get the same type of production, honestly, and you can have this quarterback for two decades slinging the rock in Miami,” Carr said.
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper agrees with the Dolphins sticking with Tagovailoa and not looking at quarterbacks with the third pick.
“I said when he was drafted, I think his body needed to heal,” Kiper said. “He had two major injuries — [including] that hip. To throw the football, you need everything working: legs, hips, rotation. I don’t see that. You knew he had the ability to make every throw at Alabama. He needed a year to figure it out medically and get his body back to where it needs to be.
“He played. He won games. The arm strength will show next year when he’s more time removed from that significant hip injury.”
CHATTER
• An NBA source briefed on the situation said the Rockets wanted more than Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and cap facilitators Andre Iguodala and Kelly Olynyk in a James Harden trade.
Even if the Heat offered Herro, Robinson, Precious Achiuwa, KZ Okpala, Iguodala, Olynyk and first-round picks in 2025 and 2027 (possible if Miami and
OKC agree to unlock protections on the Heat’s 2023 pick due OKC), I’m not sure that would be enough to satisfy the Rockets.
We’re told Heat president Pat Riley holds Harden in high regard, but doesn’t want to give up all of Miami’s top young assets.
• UM offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee is excited by the receiving skills of incoming freshman tight end Elijah Arroyo, who caught 13 touchdowns for a Texas high school last season. “He’s 6-4, plays like a receiver in a tight end’s body, in a lot of ways like Brevin Jordan does. He’s that style of player, which is big for us.”
• Dan Le Batard, who left ESPN last week, is mulling his next move (Sirius XM would be one possibility) and continuing to do a daily podcast.
• Look for the Marlins, in mid-January, to sign Yiddi Cappe, an 18-year-old Cuban shortstop who has been playing in the Dominican Republic and projects to have above-average power. “He’s going to hit,” a scout from another team predicted.
The Marlins are expected to give him $3.5 million, the second-biggest contract given by this ownership to an international player, behind only outfielder Victor Victor Mesa, who has been a disappointment so far. … One AL scout who has watched both Mesa brothers — Victor Victor and Victor Jr. — says “I like the younger Mesa better [Victor Jr.] now. He has a higher ceiling.”