Seeking fresh start with Iraq, Biden avoids setting red line with Iran
After a rocket attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad late last year, the Trump administration renewed its threats of withdrawing diplomats from Iraq. A military retaliation against Iran was discussed, and the White House warned of a drastic response “if one American is killed.” None was.
Nor were any Americans killed in a similar strike last week on a U.S. military base at the airport in Irbil, in northern Iraq, that officials blame on an Iranian-backed militia. One foreign contractor died, and a U.S. service member and several contractors were wounded, prompting Secretary of State Antony Blinken to describe the United States as “outraged” and another official to sternly promise “consequences for any group responsible.”
But the Biden administration’s otherwise measured response to the rocket fusillade stood in sharp contrast with former President Donald Trump’s pitched campaign against Iran – one that often caught Iraq in the crossfire.
And it raised a question both in Washington and in Baghdad: What are President Joe Biden’s red lines when it comes to responding to attacks from Iranian-backed militias that target Americans in Iraq?
Diplomatic and military officials said Biden’s larger goal was to lower hostilities between the United States and Iran and its proxies in the region, including in Iraq, and to look for a path back to diplomacy with Iran. This past week, the United States extended an opening to new negotiations with Iran to limit its nuclear program.
The effort for rapprochement comes as the Biden administration simultaneously stares down deadly militias in Iraq that officials believe are acting with Iran’s help and, perhaps, orders. Attacks against Americans by Iran or its proxies could scuttle the broader diplomatic goal, the officials said.
They also could upend a fresh attempt by the United States to persuade Iraq to lean away from Iran — without expecting to sever their spiritual, economic and cultural ties — by offering incentives instead of threats.
“In order for America to pursue our values and to pursue our interests around the world, we have to be engaged in the world,” Ned Price, the State Department’s spokesperson, said after the Irbil attack. “And, of course, engagement in some corners of the world carries added risks.”
So far, two senior Defense Department officials said, there has been no detailed discussion at the Pentagon’s Central Command about a specific military response to the strike in Irbil on Monday as U.S. and Iraqi authorities investigate who launched the attack. Both Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III, who served three combat tours in Iraq, have spoken with their Iraqi counterparts to offer assistance with the inquiry.
Officials blame the Irbil rockets on Iranian-backed militias, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, which had been held responsible for similar previous strikes. But representatives at the White House, State Department and Pentagon have stopped short of making any specific accusations.
“What an important test for the new administration,” Simone Ledeen, the Pentagon’s top Middle East policy official until last month, said on Twitter on Monday. “Will be interested to see if there is a response.”
Iraqis have long been suspicious of U.S. officials who, after ordering a military invasion in 2003 and deposing Saddam Hussein, are still blamed for the security vacuum that followed after U.S. occupation authorities disbanded the Iraqi army. Anger toward the United States flared again last month when the Trump administration pardoned four American security contractors for their roles in a 2007 massacre of 17 Iraqi civilians in Nisour Square in Baghdad.
Blinken has begun what one senior State Department official described Friday as a review of U.S. policy in Iraq that allows for a shift in approach. The review will include feedback from the Pentagon before it is presented to the White House, possibly as soon as next month.
The administration is considering returning hundreds of diplomats, security personnel and contractors to the embassy in Baghdad; the numbers were reduced in May 2019 during a period of heightened tensions with Iran, touching off fluctuating staffing levels ever since.