Elites are struggling as inexperience, no fans steal home-court advantage
This college basketball season, the madness set in long before March.
Kentucky, Duke and Michigan State — who have combined for 15 national titles — are in danger of not making the NCAA Tournament. Other traditional powers also struggled as the mystique of their home courts diminished during the fan-limited pandemic and their freshmanheavy rosters grappled with unprecedented challenges.
Only one of the top 13 winningest programs in history is ranked in the AP Top 25 this week — Kansas at No. 23, back in after dropping out for the first time in 12 years. Conspicuously absent from the Top 25 are bluebloods Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, Michigan State, Syracuse and UCLA.
Last week was the first time in 60 years that Kentucky, Duke, Kansas and North Carolina were all missing from the Top 25.
Despite the top recruiting class in the nation, Kentucky is 7-13 and in eighth place in the SEC. Michigan State ranks 11th in the Big 10 and might not be invited to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 23 years.
Duke is 9-8, in eighth place in the ACC and a tournament long shot after 24 consecutive trips to The Dance. The Blue Devils, who had an NCAA-record 150-game nonconference home winning streak until last season, lost two nonconference games at empty Cameron Indoor Stadium in December.
This season, with arenas operating without fans or at extremely limited capacities, Division I teams have won
just 57.4 percent of their home conference games. That is the lowest figure since basketball stats archive KenPom began tracking the statistic in 1996-97, when home teams won 64.3 percent of the time. During the 24 seasons the stat has been kept, home teams have won 61.3 percent of their games.
Kansas lost by 25 at home to Texas this season, the largest margin of defeat at Allen Fieldhouse since 1989. Then-No. 10 Kentucky lost a home game by 12 to Richmond, the most-lopsided nonconference home loss under coach John Calipari.
CALIPARI MISSES FANS AT RUPP ARENA
“Without fans in Rupp, we’re just playing a basketball game on a court,” Calipari said after that loss. “It’s not the same. The lift we get from 24,000 people when we need a stop, we don’t have.”
What is the best explanation for the struggles of the bluebloods this season?
Is it that top programs known for big crowds no longer have a home-court advantage during the pandemic? Is it that teams which rely on freshmen — talented as they might be — suffered more from limited preseason training? Is it that freshmen lack the maturity to deal with the isolation and unpredictable schedule that COVID-19 has caused?
“All of the above,” said University of Miami coach Jim Larrañaga.
“All of that is on target, but if you start saying it, it comes out as excuses and you don’t want to make excuses,” Duke coach
Mike Krzyzewski said. “There’s probably a cumulative effect for each program. In saying that, what you’re trying to do is not let that be the reason not to be successful. You’re trying to control your environment in the best possible way to produce positive results. The environment is unlike it has ever been. We have to keep working and getting better.”
Notre Dame coach Mike Brey, whose team won at Kentucky and at Duke this season, conceded that the absence of rabid crowds certainly helped, but felt the biggest difference was that his team is not as reliant on freshmen.
“No question it was different,” Brey said of the game atmosphere. “We played Rupp Arena, there weren’t 20,000 people. We played at Cameron last week, they weren’t hanging out over the railings on you when you’re taking a ball out of bounds, so that certainly changes it.
“Youth is youth, and we’re a little older. In both of those wins in both of those buildings, our experience probably was the advantage. No program has been able to get into a consistent rhythm, and when young guys can’t get reps and rhythm, it’s really going to show. Old guys can miss some practices, miss some exhibition games and maybe even miss the summer reps. Young guys can’t, especially if you’re going to rely on four of your eight in the rotation to be key guys. That is a big, big part of it.”
UNC, KENTUCKY,
DUKE AMONG YOUNGEST TEAMS
According to KenPom’s rankings, among the leastexperienced of 348 Division I teams this season are North Carolina
(ranked No. 324), Kentucky (No. 341) and Duke (No. 344).
Pitt coach Jeff Capel feels a combination of youth and empty arenas have hurt the blueblood programs.
“I haven’t done a deep dive on this, but if I had to guess, the teams that are doing really well the one thing they have in common is that they’re old,” Capel said. “They’re not relying on a lot of new people and they have older players that have played together and had some sort of success together.
“If you’re talking about the Kentuckys, the Dukes, the Kansas’, those places, I do think the home-court thing is a big deal. You can add Michigan State, too. These places that have an aura at their home court that doesn’t exist for anyone anymore.”
Luke Hancock, an ACC Network analyst who played at George Mason and Louisville, predicted before the season that Duke would drop without the energy of the Cameron Crazies and the packed stands at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
“Duke’s going down,” Hancock said in a lateNovember preseason conference call. “Don’t downplay the Duke advantage. They don’t have it this year. It’s going to be such a weird year, not having fans in a venue like that. I think it’s substantial. I think teams are going to go in there with an extra level of confidence knowing the Cameron Crazies are not there.”
Duke’s history and its famed student section made it a daunting venue for opponents.
“The fraternity that comes back for those games in the ACC when they have it rolling,” Hancock said. “When we went back for Duke-UNC, I’m sitting next to Carlos Boozer, and he’s small potatoes, because I’m behind Christian Laettner, Grant Hill, Shane Battier and 25 other Duke legends. When you’re playing against that, and you’re trying to throw the ball in, and all those fingers are waving at you, it’s an absolutely incredible environment.”
“I guarantee you, not having that fan base there, not having it be that loud, it’s going to be substantial,” he said. “Teams are going to go in there with a chip on their shoulders, saying, ‘This is the year we need to give it to Duke.’ It’s going to be a different environment.”
Dalen Cuff, another
ACC Network analyst, added that fan-free arenas make it easier for opponents to prepare.
“The amount of energy coaches go into talking about the crowd, the hand signals, there’s so much time spent talking about, thinking about how to handle different really difficult environments,” he said. “When you take that away, it’s just about scouting reports, knowing personnel, playing the game. That just makes it way easier.”
BIG 12 HOME TEAMS WINNING LESS IN 2021
The Big 12 has been particularly affected.
Home winning percentage dropped from 64.4 percent last season to 49.2 percent this season.
University of North Carolina coach Roy Williams dismissed the theory that lack of home-court advantage is to blame for teams’ troubles, pointing out that as a whole ACC teams have a higher-thannormal home-court records this season.
“You still have a home court advantage because you get to shoot at your baskets that you look at all the time, the same backdrop you have all the time, sleep in your bed, eat food you’re familiar with,” he said.
What makes this season different, Williams said, is that freshmen did not have the opportunity to adjust to the college game during the summer and fall.
“When you have young players, whether it’s North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, they go through summer and fall and play pickups with some of your former players who are NBA guys, so they get some guidance there,” Williams said. “Then you play some exhibitions and scrimmages before you jump into conference games. Freshmen benefit from all those exhibitions, scrimmages, pickup games more than anybody else.”
Larrañaga agreed that younger teams are at a disadvantage this season: “Young players need practice time, you need to develop a chemistry on your team. Freshmen, particularly these kids who come in with very high expectations, they think they’re already ready for college, but they haven’t learned to play college defense. And defense is really what determines whether your program will be successful.”
The lack of fans has also had an effect, Larrañaga said.
“If you get on a run, it normally lasts a little longer because of the adrenaline the fans bring,” he said. “It also means with the fans not there, if you go into a lull, you miss some shots, there’s no crowd to juice you back up and carry you for a little while.”
Coaches across the country have struggled to get their teams in a comfortable rhythm during the pandemic due to the topsyturvy schedule. That has proven especially detrimental to inexperienced players. Veterans can adapt. Freshmen, even if they were McDonald’s All-Americans coming out of high school, needed more time to adjust.
“The teams playing really well are probably the older teams,’ said North Carolina State coach Kevin Keatts. “If you’re playing one or two freshmen in your rotation, your team typically has struggled at some point. Some teams are figuring it out, but most haven’t. Everyone took the nonconference for granted, meaning some of those guys need to get in a groove. Coaches find out rotations early in the year and it’s February and people are still searching for the right rotation.”
In a season of so many unknowns, one thing is certain: The NCAA Tournament bracket will have a different look this March.