Teams rethink making long-term commitments to unproven QBs
Commit to an unproven quarterback? Even when he has been a high draft pick and the presumptive face of the franchise?
Even when he has played well in spurts? And your team has been to the Super Bowl?
Nope.
The media narrative for the 2021 NFL offseason is about witnessing a quarterback carousel that has already begun spinning with two major trades.
But the less-obvious and probably more-lasting portrayal of what is happening now is that NFL teams are learning a new lesson about their so-called franchise quarterbacks.
The lesson is those young guys shouldn’t be considered forever guys such as Patrick Mahomes until they play at an exceedingly high levels for multiple years.
This lesson is valuable. And it signals a change in the NFL landscape.
It used to be that showing patience with a potential franchise quarterback involved waiting for him to get through his rookie contract. Because the position is hard to play and experience matters. And because it was relatively cheap to wait for something good to happen — or not happen.
Now?
Patience is no longer a virtue.
The Washington Football Team drafted Dwayne Haskins in the first round of the 2019 draft. They cut him during the 2020 season.
Haskins got 13 starts in Washington.
The Denver Broncos drafted Drew Lock to be their franchise quarterback in 2019. They’re going to search for a new guy this offseason, including looking to a possible trade with Houston for Deshaun Watson.
The Chicago Bears drafted Mitch Trubisky with the No. 2 overall selection in 2017. They actually traded up to get Trubisky.
And then they realized their mistake. Chicago traded for former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles to compete with Trubisky last season and are looking to replace Trubisky outright this offseason.
The New York Jets drafted Sam Darnold with the No. 3 overall selection in 2018. They gave up three second-round picks to exchange first-round spots with Indianapolis so they could pick Darnold.
But when Robert Saleh was hired in January, the new coach did not commit to Darnold in any significant way. And, indeed, New York is expected to involve itself in the Watson derby if he becomes available.
The Arizona Cardinals drafted Josh Rosen with the No. 10 overall selection in 2018. They replaced him by drafting Kyler Murray first overall in 2019.
You see a pattern here? Teams are not waiting full length of contracts to figure out if their highly drafted quarterbacks should continue to lead their teams. Because, they’re obviously believing, that path will lead to poor results.
Even when young quarterbacks show some signs of getting it — perhaps by delivering one good season — it might not be wise to reward them with a new contract until they’re fully vetted and proven. Consider:
The Los Angeles Rams invested six draft picks to trade up to the No. 1 overall spot in the 2016 draft so they could select Jared Goff.
And that was acceptable for a minute.
The Rams went to the Super Bowl in February 2019. And the following September the team signed Goff to a massive four-year, $134 million contract.
But Goff’s days with Los Angeles came to an end last month when the Rams agreed to send him to the Detroit Lions. In that trade the Rams agreed to send Goff, two first-round picks, and a third-round pick to Detroit in exchange for Matthew Stafford.
The Rams’ total investment in Goff was nine draft picks, including four firstrounders, and $22 million in dead money against their cap this year.
But they hit the ejection button anyway because coach Sean McVay had lost confidence in their young quarterback after multiple regular-season and postseason failures.
The Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday also agreed to trade Carson Wentz after the relationship between the team and the player soured.
Wentz was the No. 2 overall selection in the 2016 draft right behind Goff. Philly invested five draft picks to acquire Wentz in that draft. They gave him a $128 million contract extension in 2019.
Ten months later they drafted Jalen Hurts and 20 months later they agreed to ship Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts for a thirdround pick in the 2021 draft and a conditional secondrounder in the 2022 draft.
Oh, yes, and the Eagles are absorbing approximately $33.8 million in dead cap space to get out of that big 2019 extension they signed with Wentz.
There’s a lesson in all of this, folks.
The lesson is quarterbacks haven’t arrived when they’re drafted high. In that regard, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert — first-round picks in 2020 — have not arrived.
Quarterbacks haven’t arrived when they show signs of progress — a commendable but unremarkable trait coaches often point to as evidence they have the right guy.
Quarterbacks haven’t arrived when they play well but do it inconsistently. Goff and Trubisky played well in 2018. Wentz played well in 2019. Other seasons, not great.
Quarterbacks haven’t arrived when they play well but get injured — as Wentz, Goff and Darnold did.
Quarterbacks haven’t even arrived when they get their teams to the playoffs one year — as Baker Mayfield did last season.
Quarterbacks arrive when they deliver two or three
great seasons. When their durability is without question. When they consistently perform well in the postseason.
Making a long-term commitment to a quarterback who doesn’t have those credentials is not a thoughtful evaluation but rather a blind hope.
It’s a formula for piling one mistake atop another. That’s what the 2021 offseason is showing us.