PANDEMIC BABY BOOM? NOT QUITE,

The babies aren’t coming. The baby boom we expected at the beginning of the pandemic has gone bust. No, the babies aren’t coming anytime soon.

Last year, when the world first locked down, stories about a boom in births spread as quickly as the novel coronavirus. Stuck together at home, bored out of their minds, couples were expected to … well (wink, wink) make babies. What could be more life-affirming than that, right?

I remember reading one particular piece early in this looooooong slog that quoted relationship experts predicting a surge in births in 2021 as couples sought solace and distraction in intimacy. These predictions carried a certain giddiness, an everything-will-eventually-beall-right feeling that offset the despair of those days.

But months passed, and I didn’t get invited to a single baby shower, Zoom or otherwise. Not a one. I can’t begin to explain how unusual this is. As a member of a large family supplemented by a blessed circle of friends, I’m often a guest at such life-marking celebrations. I enjoy unscrambling layette words and competing in games that require chugging baby food blindfolded while sitting in front of giggling guests. Lately I’ve not had an opportunity to exercise that expertise, though.

Because here we are, a good 11 months into a surreal existence of masks and hand sanitizers, and the predicted arrival of a squalling new generation of pandemic infants has not materialized. In fact, births are actually down and the trend will likely continue into 2021. A December report by the Brookings Institution, projected 300,000 fewer births this year. The authors warned that “the longer the pandemic lasts, and the deeper the economic and social anxiety runs, it is feasible that we will see an even larger reduction in births with an increasing share of them averted permanently.”

A survey by Modern Fertility, a fertility-test maker, appeared to confirm this. About 30% of nearly 4,000 people expressed that they were changing their fertility/ family planning timelines this year. Top reasons for the change were hardly surprising: uncertainty about finances, challenges of parenting during this time, and worry about access to safe prenatal care.

We can’t blame the pandemic alone for the downward trend, of course. The number of U.S. births in 2019 was the lowest recorded since 1985, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. In fact, the number of babies born has been falling since 2015, when it reached a peak of 4 million.

Let me put the pandemic baby bust into perspective: If there are indeed 300,000 fewer births, this will mean eight times the drop in the yearly birthrate that occurred between 2018 and 2019. Not even the best wipes can erase that startling fact.

While the makers of Desitin and Pampers are probably eyeing those numbers with concern, so are others who say the trend will affect more than companies and babyshower veterans. People who count money while staring into crystal balls — aka economists — say a growing population is essential for economic growth. Hence, lower birthrates will hurt everyone’s wallets. With fewer future working bees, Social Security will be affected and younger people will have to work longer and save more to retire.

And yet, in my relentless pursuit of seeing the glass half-full, I’ve decided to turn such dire predictions into something else, something more. Delaying children in pandemic times is entirely justifiable — perhaps the most responsible action a prospective parent might take in times of trouble. After all, raising a child is expensive backbreaking work. A pandemic has only made it that much worse.

For those who are happily pregnant, though, I tip my hat. Choosing to get pregnant is an act of faith in the future, a belief that we will get through this, as we have other catastrophes. Some might call it magical thinking, but I prefer to label it for what it is: unbridled optimism that most things will be better on the other side.