Recovery around the corner?
Gloria Guevara, president of the World Travel and Tourism Council, is confident that the industry’s comeback will be swift this year because the COVID-19 vaccine is the light at the end of the tunnel of the pandemic.
As CEO of the World Travel and Tourism Council since 2017, Gloria Guevara can’t help but be cautiously optimistic about the tourism industry’s comeback after its worst year in recent memory. Charged with furthering the interests of the global private travel and tourism sector, Guevara sees significant recovery beginning in May.
In the U.S., the depth of COVID-19’s damage to the tourism industry can be seen in shuttered restaurants and hotels, docked cruise ships and discontinued tours, adding up to 5.6 million fewer travel-supported jobs than before COVID-19 hit, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
The light at the end of the tunnel, Guevara said, is the COVID-19 vaccine, which is rolling out successfully in many of the world’s largest tourism feeder markets, including the U.S.
Guevara recently visited Miami to prepare for the upcoming WTTC global summit in Cancun, Mexico, at the end of April.
This Q&A has been edited for clarity.
Q: What do you see as the immediate next step for the tourism industry in this crisis?
A lot of countries are announcing they are opening in May: Greece on May 14, the U.K. on May 17. Countries that have been very successful in their vaccine rollout are defining next steps. Vaccination is crucial, but it’s not the only solution. In the U.K. where I live, they have vaccinated more adults in terms of the population. We have seen a lot of progress in terms of the spread of the virus and mortality rate.
We need to learn to coexist with this virus: playing it smart, doing risk assessment and identifying those who are infected and isolating them. Testing is still an important component. The people who have been vaccinated are given a certification. Countries are going to ask you for the vaccine certificate or negative test result that you don’t have COVID, and that — along with wearing the mask and all the protocols in place — will help mobility to resume.
Before we had different countries, different rules, different mobility rules. We hope the Biden Administration will announce something that will allow mobility between Europe and the U.S.
Q: Do you think that more countries will require visitors to be vaccinated against COVID-19?
We have had a lot of conversations. Countries that represent 14% of the world’s population have bought 50% of the vaccine supply. There are many counties that don’t have a time frame to get their vaccines. The supply is limited at this point, so if you require a vaccine to travel to your country, you might have an issue of discrimination, driving the wrong behavior.
There’s no testing of the vaccine for children. So then what, they’re not allowed? That’s why it’s not one solution. You need to have a combination of things: testing, vaccine, wearing the mask. All of that will help us to have safe travel.
Before COVID, travel and tourism contributed 10% of the global GDP; one in 10 jobs depended on it. I’m not talking about the economy versus public health. Of course public health is priority. We need to have a balance. Public health is paramount, but we also talk about mental health and the other consequences we are seeing because of lack of travel. Increase in domestic abuse, increase in inequality because of the lack of income. How can we resume mobility while maintaining public health?
We see over and over that the vulnerable groups are the elderly. If you are making the vaccination as a requirement to travel because we have limited supply, there might be some developing countries that might not get vaccines until next
year or the year after.
Does that mean they cannot resume some sort of livelihood or travel to and from their countries? We believe the vaccine should be shared; we need to prioritize vulnerable groups around the world. Perhaps the groups who are younger who don’t need the vaccine right now should travel with the test.
WTTC has done a lot of research, and when you look back in the last 20 years, we had 11 outbreaks. It’s interesting how we were able to travel without a vaccine after SARS and Ebola. Why was that? It was because we were able to isolate the people infected. In this case it’s more complicated because we have a lot of asymptomatics. That’s why it’s so key to test, test, test, and include testing in the travel experience.
Regardless of the vaccine, we need to continue testing and wearing the mask.
Q: What do you see the industry’s recovery looking like at the end of this year?
When you look at the last two huge crises we have had, 9/11 and the financial crisis, it took three to four years to recover from 9/11 and 18 months from the financial crisis. We’re hoping to have something equivalent to the financial crisis, a V-shaped recovery. From lessons learned from 9/11, we announced health protocols early, which helped build trust with the traveler. We have a safe travel stamp so 260 destinations have the same protocols. We aren’t making the same mistakes of 9/11. We are moving in the right direction.
We believe we are going to have a strong summer and very strong second half of the year. Bookings in hotels in Europe, North America, Latin America and some portions of Asia are strong — not only domestic bookings but long-haul leisure. I have members telling me their sales forecast is greater than 2019. People are getting their vaccine, feeling more comfortable, planning summer and fall vacations.
Q: When will business travel return? meetings and conventions. Our big hotel chains, Marriott, Hilton, hotels were packed with business meetings.
Regardless of the technology that we have, it is very evident that business travel is still very needed. Are we going to see people traveling for a one-hour meeting to another city? Perhaps not. But we will see conventions.
Q: What is your sense of how South Florida’s tourism market is recovering?
I’m hearing that they are making things seem like a new normal. South Florida is going through this vaccine rollout. We need to be very careful of not jumping ahead. South Florida, especially Miami, is a very important international destination, very successful in checking a few boxes. It’s the largest home port of the world, a great destination for business and for shopping, good for multiple types of travelers. It’s great for entertainment. They need to be careful to follow the protocols. Wearing the mask is still important.
You’ll see that because of the vaccine rollout, by this summer we’re going to be in a very different situation. You might feel you’re still in the middle of the storm, but things are moving in the right direction.
Q: The cruise industry, which is a huge part of our local economy, has been almost totally shut down. When do you think it will be up and running again in the U.S.?
Unfortunately the cruise industry is held to a different standard. For instance, if you get flu in a hotel, in an airport, the supermarket, you don’t have to report that. If you get flu on a cruise, you have to issue a report, a statement.
Cruises have very loyal clients; people love the experience. The industry is going to come back stronger with very high demand from their travelers. It’s unbelievable how many people are asking me, when is the industry coming back? When will it be OK for us to cruise again? I think it will be this year. It’s going to depend on the authorities.
A big portion of cruise clients, they also have an interesting disposable income. My parents travel once a year, now they want to travel two or three times. They are very loyal customers of the cruise industry; they love the experience. I think the cruise industry is going to have a comeback, we just need to wait for the right time. I am confident they will have the best protocols.
Taylor Dolven: 305-376-2052, @taydolven