Scientists see cause for optimism at summit
With pledges for a United Nations climate conference, the world may be ever so slightly receding from gloomy scenarios of future global warming, according to two new preliminary scientific analyses last week.
The two reports – one by the International Energy Agency and the other by Australian scientists – focused on optimistic scenarios. If all goes right, they said, recent actions will trim 0.3 to 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit from projections made in midOctober. So instead of 3.8 Fahrenheit of warming since preindustrial times, the analyses project warming to plateau at
3.2 to 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit.
Both projections leave the world far from the goal of the 2015 Paris climate deal. The planet has already warmed 2 degrees Fahrenheit.
“We are now in a slightly more positive outlook for the future,” said University of Melbourne climate scientist Malte Meinshausen.
The energy agency analysis factored in India’s announcement of short-term carbon dioxide emission curbs and a netzero pledge by 2070 on Monday, as well as pledges by more than 100 countries Tuesday to reduce the powerful greenhouse gas methane. The intergovernmental agency said it was the first time projections fell below 2 degrees Celsius – a longstanding threshold for tipping points that some scientists say could bring even more dangerous and potentially uncontrolled warming.
“I think this is a very well-celebrated achievement,” agency chief Fatih Birol told leaders at climate negotiations in Glasgow called COP26. “Congratulations.”