Herro is in line for big extension, payday
As Tyler Herro continues to blossom in this breakout season for the Heat, a couple of things have become clear: 1. The Heat wasn’t nuts when a team official told Dan Le Batard that the organization viewed Herro as having an upside higher than Phoenix Suns two-time All-Star guard Devin Booker’s.
2. Herro is going to get paid big this offseason, a contract that likely will send Miami well past the luxury tax line by 2023.
Herro — under contract through next season — will become eligible to sign an extension anytime between the start of the new league year next July and the day before the regular season opener next October. If he surprisingly doesn’t sign an extension, he would be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2023.
Let’s start with the on-court play. Herro’s numbers are comparable to those of Booker and, in some ways, to the Hawks’ Trae Young — whom Herro said he wanted to be compared to eventually.
Herro this season, entering the weekend, is averaging 21.8 points per game, 5.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists while shooting 45.4 percent from the field and 39.8 percent on threes, in 33.6 minutes per game.
Booker is averaging 23.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists while shooting 45.1 percent from the field and 39.3 percent on threes, in 32.9 minutes per game.
Young is averaging 25.3 points, 3.7 rebounds and 9.1 assists while shooting 45.3 percent from the field and 37.5 on threes, in 33.8 minutes.
“We all laughed when Tyler
Herro said that he wanted to be bunched in the same group with young stars Trae Young and Luka Doncic,” ESPN analyst and former NBA guard JJ Redick said.
Herro — who said he hopes to win the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player awards this season — later clarified that those are the players whose level he hopes to get to.
Herro has backed it up beyond what anyone could have envisioned.
“Give the guy some credit for making a big leap in Year Three,” Redick said. “Tyler has made a big jump in usage percentage, from about 22 percent in his first two years to [28] percent this year. For reference, Nikola Jokic last year — the MVP — had about that usage.
“The other thing is he’s been such a good pick-and-roll operator getting to those spots. He’s shooting 62 percent from the mid-range, which probably isn’t sustainable. But his ability to get to his spots and elevate [is impressive].
“And the third thing is his passing. He’s made a little bit of a leap each year with his passing. For him to be in the category of a Trae Young or Luka Doncic, it’s the playmaking part that has to continue to improve.”
Herro’s 21.8 per game average ranks 20th in the league and is tops among bench players. His 157 points off the bench were the most ever by an NBA player in the first seven games to start a season.
And defensively, even though teams go at him a lot, keep in mind that the player Herro is guarding is shooting only 40.6 percent against him this season, which ranks Herro 25th best among all guards in that metric.
“Great player; he’s always knocking tough shots down,” Lakers guard Malik Monk said.
As for the contract, Herro will make $5.7 million in 2022-23 under any circumstances. But he’s eligible — after this season — to sign a deal worth as much as $181 million over five seasons, with a first-year salary (2023-24) of $31.2 million.
ESPN’s Bobby Marks, the former Nets front-office executive, noted that Herro can sign for five years — instead of four — only if he gets a max contract.
“I don’t think he’s getting that [a max deal] from Miami next offseason,” Marks said, via text message.
So what could Herro command if he plays at this level all season?
“Shooting is certainly a premium right now,” Marks said. “Average shooters are getting $17 [million]-18 million right now. I think he’s north of $20 million. Different player but likely in that Mikal Bridgestype territory — four years, $90 million. Might be a little more.”
If Herro got the full max (highly unlikely), the Heat would be committed to pay $156.7 million to five players in 202324: Jimmy Butler ($45.2 million), Bam Adebayo ($32.6 million), Kyle Lowry ($29.7 million), Duncan Robinson ($18.2 million) and Herro ($31.2 million).
If Herro got a deal starting at $22 million, that would be $147.7 million committed to five players in 2023-24. Even if the remainder of the Heat roster signed minimum deals, that would still equate to a payroll topping $156 million.
ESPN reported that the projected 2023-24 cap is $119.2 million and tax is $144.9 million.
So even if the Heat surrounded those five players with mostly minimum deals, Miami still would pay a substantial luxury tax.
Paying Victor Oladipo a sizable amount in a multiyear deal next summer would take the Heat into an enormous level of tax payment (in 2023-24) — a level that only a handful of teams are willing to stomach. The Warriors are facing a $160 million tax bill this season.
The Heat, over its history, has paid the luxury tax seven times, for a total of $52.9 million. Miami paid $14.4 million in luxury taxes in the final season of the LeBron James era, but just $2.5 million in seven years since. It stands $400,000 below the tax this season.
The NBA utilizes a progressive tax system that becomes particularly onerous if your team is $10 million or more above the tax line or if you are a tax team three times in four years.
So the question becomes whether the Heat would be comfortable paying the type of tax bill — tens of millions of dollars — that it never has had to pay before. Regardless, it’s highly likely that Herro will be offered an extension.
So be prepared for a bunch of minimum deals around the Heat’s core in two years. Lowry’s deal expires after 2023-24. The Butler, Adebayo and Robinson contracts run through 2025-26, though only $9.8 million — half of Robinson’s $19.9 million — is guaranteed in 2025-26.
CHATTER
I asked NBC analyst Drew Brees if he has seen enough from Tua Tagovailoa that the Dolphins should move forward with him next year and not trade for Houston’s Deshaun Watson.
“There are times where I watch Tua and he plays really, really well with the exception of maybe one or two plays in the game,” Brees said. “Unfortunately, one or two of those plays was a pick or a negative play or something that impacted the game where man, it was a close game and all of a sudden, that became detrimental. Every young quarterback goes through that.
“It’s too soon to make any judgments on Tua. It’s unfortunate all that’s been swirling around him. … There was all the talk about how Miami was going to be making a trade for Deshaun Watson. For a quarterback to have that going on on the periphery at all times, it’s tough when you don’t feel like you have got everybody buying into you and trying to build it around you.”
We’re told UM has decided to allocate significantly more money — well over $10 million and potentially more than $20 million — for football, to be used at the new athletic director’s discretion.
Where specifically does UM need more elite players on defense? “We need more depth at linebacker,” UM defensive analyst Bob Shoop said. “Corey Flagg and Keontra Smith have played too many snaps.”
AAABarry Jackson: 305-376-3491, @flasportsbuzz