Forecaster helping avalanche center in Idaho expand
SPOKANE, WASH.
Backcountry winter recreation, that is, going off-road and trail into the mountains, was once an offbeat activity, one practiced by a few dedicated adventurers. That was particularly true in a place like North Idaho, a region not nationally known for its snow or mountains.
But that’s changing, a shift that was highlighted on a recent Monday while skiing up Willow Peak south of Mullan, Idaho.
Ryan Matz, the avalanche forecaster for the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center, was examining the snowpack in the area, looking for weaknesses and signs of avalanche activity, in preparation for his Tuesday forecast. During the four or so hours he was there, he ran into two different groups of backcountry skiers. Matz stopped and talked to each group, asking how the day had been and what they’d seen. Did the snow seem stable? Any signs of slides?
While the number of people surprised him, outreach and discussion is part of Matz’s job and the interactions underscored an important fact: Backcountry winter recreation is increasing and the area’s only local avalanche center is pushing to keep up.
Matz, the first-full time U.S. Forest Service employed avalanche forecaster the center has had, is part of that effort to grow. A native of California and a skiing and mountaineering guide, he learned how to avalanche forecast back east. Most recently, he worked at Mount
Hood, before temporarily moving to Idaho in the winter of 2021. He’s IPAC’s only full-time forecaster.
His task? To lead the avalanche center and help it grow.
On Monday’s outing,
Matz dug several snow pits (a technique used to check how different layers of snow have bonded together and familiar to any moderately experienced backcountry traveler) and looked for signs of avalanches, instabilities or other anomalies in the snowpack. He then considered those observations alongside data collected throughout the season. On
that Tuesday, he published an avalanche forecast for the Silver Valley. IPAC publishes three forecasts a week, each dealing with a different geographic zone.
IPAC also investigates the causes of avalanches and publishes reports, as it did following the deadly inbounds avalanche at Silver Mountain in 2020.
Snow science is a notoriously complex subject. How much snow falls, its consistency and how it bonds with other older layers of snow is influenced by a dizzying array of factors, temperature, humidity, elevation and wind to name a few.
While there is certainly a science to avalanche forecasting, it’s also part skill. Forecasters like Matz have to make subjective calls based on their own experiences. And with users depending on these judgments, accuracy is the name of the game.
IPAC, like the vast majority of avalanche forecast centers in the United States, is run by the U.S. Forest Service and relies heavily on donations.
IPAC is a Type 2 avalanche center, meaning that it releases avalanche forecast reports less than seven days a week. The center provides forecasts for 2.7 million acres in North Idaho, including the Selkirks, Cabinets, Purcells and the Coeur d’Alene/St. Joe Divide. The center is funded partially by the Forest Service and through donations from the Friends of the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center.
As of the 2021-22 season the center has 10 part-time forecasters.
The organization started informally in the 1980s in Coeur d’Alene when Forest Service hydrologists Bob “Bones” Kasun and Al Isaacson began issuing snow advisories during winter storms, according to a brief program history written by forecaster Kevin Davis.
“By the late 1980s,
Bones had established an avalanche hotline in Coeur d’Alene where the public could call in and get the avalanche conditions for the weekend,” Davis wrote. “Bob would get the information from the local area during the week and post it on the hotline Friday morning.”
In the late ‘90s, the forecast area expanded into the Cabinet and Selkirk mountains, and IPAC started offering some avalanche education courses. In the 2000s, the center started to do some forecasting in the Lookout Pass area on the Idaho/Montana border.
That organic program development mirrors how avalanche centers have grown and evolved throughout the U.S.
The modern study and control of avalanches started in Washington state during a brutal winter in 1910. That’s when an avalanche in the Cascade Mountains swept a passenger train off its tracks near Stevens Pass, hurling it 110 feet into a ravine. Ninety-six people died, making it the worst avalanche accident in the history of the U.S. An intense winter – 40 inches of snow in Cle Elum, Wash. – led to more deadly avalanches, including ones in Burke and Mace, Idaho.
Those tragedies planted the seeds for modern snow science and avalanche forecasting.
“The roots of our scientific research into avalanches in North America began in 1910,” Blase Reardon, an avalanche forecaster in Montana told the magazine Atlas Obscura in 2020. “The research that began back then continues today.”
The Forest Service now runs the majority of avalanche centers in the U.S., which makes sense because the roughly 30 or so people who die each year in avalanches are almost all on Forest Service lands.
“Avalanches kill more people on National Forests Service land than any other single natural hazard,”
Matz said.
In higher-use areas, like the Cascades or Utah’s Wasatch Range, avalanche centers provide daily forecasts, as do avalanche centers in Canada. This provides backcountry users with day-of information. In general, avalanche experts recommend skiers and snowmobilers don’t solely rely on the forecast, instead using it as just one bit of information.
In the North Idaho region, understanding that the forecast is not updated day-to-day is an important distinction, Matz said.
“We always encourage people to use the forecast as a starting point,” Matz said.” It should give people an idea of what types of avalanche problems they should look for when they go into the backcountry and where they should look for them.”
Although Matz’ appointment as IPAC’s forecaster is temporary, he hopes it becomes permanent.
IPAC has already started to expand what it offers, including avalanche education courses. At some point, Matz and others hope IPAC can provide daily forecasts.
“If we grow too fast or if we try to provide too many forecasts basically for the amount of staff we have, we run the risk of compromising the quality of information,” he said. “If and when we can provide more avalanche forecast coverage, we want that to be sustainable.”