Throwing deep is not the main issue with Tagovailoa
As national TV analysts keep discussing whether Tua Tagovailoa can maximize six-time Pro Bowl receiver Tyreek Hill, they keep going back to the same concern: Tagovailoa’s deep ball.
But of the concerns about Tagovailoa — and we’ll get to those in a minute — that shouldn’t be in the top two, if it’s a concern at all.
Anybody who watched Tagovailoa complete bomb after bomb at Alabama knows he can throw deep. Is he one of the best in the league at that? No. But is he at least adequate? Yes.
His trainer, Nick Hicks, posted video of Tagovailoa launching a pass 70 yards this offseason.
Last season, Tagovailoa completed 14 of 29 passes that traveled at least 20 air yards; that 48 percent accuracy ranked second in the league, narrowly behind Justin Herbert.
As a rookie, if Tagovailoa hadn’t seen his receivers drop three well thrown deep balls, he would have completed 13 of 29 such passes (20 or more air yards), which is 45 percent.
So if you eliminate drops, Tagovailoa would have completed 46.5 percent of his deep throws in his first two seasons. That accuracy is top five in the league.
As NBC’s Cris Collinsworth told me recently: “Tua can throw the ball plenty far enough to bring in Tyreek Hill and all the speedsters he has on that team.”
Collinsworth said it drives him nuts when people talk about the need for quarterbacks to throw it as far as they possibly can, insisting that doesn’t frequently come into play during games.
Does Tagovailoa have the cannon of a Herbert? Of course not. The arm was a concern coming off the hip injury at Alabama, but it shouldn’t be now because he has regained power in his base.
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky, a voice of reason on Tagovailoa, pointed out: “Tua can throw the ball past 40 yards, America. He can do that. It’s going to be OK.”
Tagovailoa didn’t throw deep more often last season not because he lacks the ability, but because coaches didn’t trust the offensive line to give him enough time for those routes to develop. And his midseason rib injury made it difficult to throw deep for a few weeks.
Yet the deep ball question keeps being asked.
“Can Tua push the ball down the field?” former NFL safety and ESPN analyst Ryan Clark said. “Does he have an arm big enough that when we are getting opportunities in play action that we can take the top off the defense?”
ESPN’s Tedy Bruschi said: “Tyreek is the type of receiver that makes reckless look calculated,” mentioning how Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes would throw the ball deep downfield and let Hill make a play.
“Can Tua be aggressive like that? Or is he so conservative with catch-and-run passes that that’s all he can do? You need to be reckless at times because when this guy is down there, he will win it the majority of times. He’s that good. I don’t know if Tua has that. I haven’t seen it at this level.”
But that was because of the shortcomings of the line and the conservative nature of the offense, not because of any evidence that Tagovailoa cannot throw deep.
Tagovailoa is tied with Cam Newton for the lowest percent
“It started out front at the line of scrimmage. It started with finding ways to keep the sticks moving, overcoming penalties, overcoming situations. And then getting downhill. Got downhill in the running game and made some really big plays in the passing game. And everybody did — the tight ends, running backs, wide receivers.
“And then credit to the defense, for finding a way after the first drive to find a way to stop the offense in the red zone and force field goals and then eventually win the two-minute drills. So, pretty good back and forth, but overall the day belonged to the offense.’’
Cristobal said he appreciated that players “hung in there.’’ age of deep passing attempts since 2020, at 7.1 percent. That’s behind only the 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo, who threw deep only 6.2 percent of the time.
And with coach Mike McDaniel coming from San Francisco, “expect an offense based around short to intermediate throws,” NFL Network analyst Maurice Jones-Drew said. “They will take deep shots but it’s not a big part of the offense.”
So if you’re going to worry about Tagovailoa, don’t worry about the deep ball. Instead, worry about these two things:
1) His durability. He’s had 10 different injuries the past five years. He missed four games last season, and he must prove he can stay healthy.
2) The decisions he makes sometimes in the face of a heavy pass rush. Tagovailoa had a 54.8 percent passer rating under pressure last season, with three touchdowns and seven interceptions. That was among the league’s worst.
He’s nimble avoiding sacks but too often throws regrettable passes in the face of a pass rush. If he can fix that and stay healthy, there’s no reason he cannot be a very good quarterback.
“We just gotta learn that we gotta create our own juice. A big play shouldn’t deflate us. … I think it was a 15-play drive to start off before the offense scored should not deflate us. We gotta learn to rally around each other. We can’t be a front-running team. And you gotta practice that.”
Defensive-wise, the coach said that “tackling has got to improve. We gotta be knock-back tacklers. We’re not there yet.”
But Cristobal lauded the play of sophomore defensive tackle Leonard Taylor, a 6-3, 305-pound former 5-star recruit out of Miami Palmetto High.
“There were some flashes of physicality,’’ the coach said. “I thought up front, Leonard Taylor really popped today with a couple of negative plays.
What Tagovailoa should do well is what he already does well but needs to do at an elite level: Deliver the ball quickly to receivers at precisely the time — and in the spot — that he needs to.
ESPN’s Orlovsky explained it well:
“I think people need to understand that Tua is not going to be asked to be a Patrick Mahomes ora Josh Allen. He’s going to be asked to be precise in all of the little details when it comes to operating this offense. I think the most important stuff for Tua and it’s not easy for everybody at home; when Mike McDaniel calls these plays, you’ve got to be precise with your snap-point motion. It has to go to the right guy at the right time.
“So a 4-yard catch becomes an 8-yard catch. It’s going to be a new age West Coast offense that is all about the speed and how well they can do all the little things.”
CHATTER
One Dolphins player relayed positive feedback about the first week of the team’s offseason program, noting players like the offense and the terminology is simpler. McDaniel strikes players as smart and likable.
Xavien Howard, on the
AAWe need to play a better technique up front. [Defensive end] Jahfari Harvey just goes 100-milesper-hour all the time, always forcing plays.
“[Fellow defensive end] Thomas Davis is a guy that has to be singled out as well. He has made a lot of plays this spring.” Cristobal said Davis, a 6-2, 220-pound redshirt freshman out of Valdosta, Georgia, Lowndes High, plays “with relentless effort, technique and toughness.
How did Cristobal end his message?
“Go Canes.”
UM’s spring game is at noon April 16 at DRV
PNK Stadium in Fort Lauderdale.
Susan Miller Degnan: 305-376-3366, @smillerdegnan
Dolphins adding former Pro Bowl cornerbacks Sam Madison (cornerbacks coach) and
Patrick Surtain (pass game coordinator): “I love that. They’re Miami Dolphins greats. Just picking from those guys’ brains, they can help me take my game to another level.”
What positions are the Canes targeting in the transfer portal? “Everything,” coach
Mario Cristobal said. “The level of physicality in the front seven and the offensive line and tight end box have got to be elevated. … We’re looking for explosive guys that play with a ton of physicality and have an edge to them.”
UM on Saturday hosted coveted West Virginia defensive lineman Akheem Mesidor, who had five sacks as a freshman in 2020 and 4.5 in 2021.
Who has impressed Cristobal beyond quarterbacks? He said defensive end Chantz Williams has had a “great spring” and praised defensive end Jahfari Harvey (“plays so hard”), cornerback Al Blades Jr., safety/linebacker Gilbert Frierson and linebackers Corey Flagg Jr., Waymon Steed and Wesley Bissainthe.
Of the Heat’s four potential first-round opponents, three are deficient defensively: Brooklyn (20th in points allowed per 100 possessions), Charlotte (24th) and Atlanta (26th). That’s one reason why the Nets — for all their offensive firepower — aren’t a total nightmare matchup for Miami. Keep in mind that Brooklyn — without Ben Simmons — is 25-17 with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving both playing.
Cleveland, another potential first-round opponent, is sixth in defensive rating. But key pieces Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley have been injured and
Colin Sexton is out for the year.
AAABarry Jackson: 305-376-3491, @flasportsbuzz