Miami Herald (Sunday)

Best times to book cheap flights for every vacation

- BY NATALIE B. COMPTON

Nailing down the perfect moment to book airfare can be agonizing. Starting your search too late nearly guarantees you’ll pay more.

Book too early and “you actually might be missing out on a future price drop,” says Scott Keyes, founder of the airfare booking site Going.com.

To find the sweet spot, embrace window shopping: not strolling down 5th Avenue peeking into the Saks display, but giving yourself a timeline on when to pursue your airfare. The idea is not too early, but not too late. You’re looking for what Keyes calls the “Goldilocks Window.” This is the period when cheap fares are most likely to pop up.

The Goldilocks Window will vary depending on whether you’re traveling domestic or internatio­nal, and during peak or offpeak times. Use it as a time frame for your shopping, not an immediate pressure to book.

Over the course of your Goldilocks Window, which could be days, weeks or months, Keyes says you should pay extra attention, because that’s the time you have the best odds of spotting a cheap flight.

If you miss the window, you’re doomed (just kidding). “It’s not a zero percent chance [of finding low fares] outside of the Goldilocks

Window, but it’s a lot lower,” Keyes says.

Once you’ve establishe­d when you should be shopping based on your travel dates and correspond­ing Goldilocks Windows, try the set-it-and-forget-it method of signing up for airfare price alerts. You’ll be notified when fares drop, or look reasonable.

If you’re not sure whether you’re getting a good deal, plug the trip into Google Flights. The site will tell you whether a price is high, low or typical compared to past averages.

Without further ado, here’s when to start looking and booking, depending on when and where you want to fly.

MOST POPULAR SPOTS: 3 TO 7 MONTHS OUT

Getting to in-demand destinatio­ns at popular times will be expensive no matter how far in advance you book, so you’re out of luck if you’re flying to Paris for the Olympics or Tokyo for cherry blossom season. You can still keep an eye out for unexpected drops in price, mistake fares or sales. Or opt to visit during shoulder season when crowds are smaller, hotels and car rentals are cheaper, and the weather might even be better. In Spain, Keyes said, “the weather’s way better” in the spring, September or October than in the middle of the summer.

Otherwise, Keyes advises travelers to start shopping for hot spots during the opposite season (so winter for a summer booking), or about three to seven months out for domestic trips, and four to 10 months for internatio­nal.

The same is true for flights around nationally­recognized long weekends, says Hayley Berg, lead economist at the travel booking app Hopper. For the Fourth of July, for example, you should consider booking by “very early April” she says.

A REGULAR GETAWAY: 1 TO 3 MONTHS OUT

For an off-peak, domestic trip – meaning no holiday weekends, no school breaks and no coinciding with a Taylor Swift concert in the same place – “you are most likely to see cheap flights pop up about one to three months in advance,” Keyes says. For an internatio­nal trip, he says “two to eight months in advance is the sweet spot.”

That domestic estimate lines up with Expedia’s 2024 Air Travel Hacks Report, which says travelers can save most by booking domestic flights at least 28 days before departure. The report has different advice for internatio­nal travel, arguing travelers should book tickets abroad between 60 days and four months out for optimal savings.

SPRING BREAK: 1 TO 2 MONTHS OUT

Spring doesn’t technicall­y start until March, but some schools offer breaks as early as February. If you can swing something last-minute, February is one of the cheapest times of the year for airfare, Keyes says, “even if you’re flying to warm-weather destinatio­ns, you know, Florida, Hawaii, the Caribbean, et cetera.”

For breaks in March, April or May, start hunting in early February. Google Flights data shows prices for domestic trips in March and April are typically lowest 23 to 59 days before departure – meaning you’ll soon be seeing an uptick in prices.

SUMMER VACATION: FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL

Brace yourself for another gangbuster­s (read: pricey) summer of travel, and not just for the most popular spots. “Expect even some of the off-the-beaten-path destinatio­ns to be busy and expensive,” Berg says.

With that warning, “if you’re thinking about a trip for this summer, start planning it now,” Berg said.

Keyes agrees. Planning and booking now aligns with his advice for shopping for peak fares during the opposite season. Per Keyes’ Goldilocks estimate, you should have a few more months to mull it over if you’re going domestic, but be ready to book in late winter in case the right airfare lands sooner than later.

FALL TRIPS: LATE SUMMER

Whether you’re looking for an autumnal jaunt through New England, or a shoulder season trip to the beach, “we expect the fall season to be inexpensiv­e as it typically is,” Berg says. “This past year, we saw the lowest prices in fall for domestic trips that we had seen since 2018 at least.” Berg even recommends shifting your big vacation from July or August to September or October, as it could save you up to 30 percent on airfare.

Get the lowest fares by looking for domestic trips one to three months out, and internatio­nal ones two to eight months. If you are heading to some of those particular­ly popular leafpeepin­g destinatio­ns, start a month or two earlier.

THANKSGIVI­NG: MAY THROUGH EARLY OCTOBER

Per Keyes’ Goldilocks prediction­s, get ahead of the Thanksgivi­ng gouge by setting price alerts as early as late May. Google Flights data claims the lowest prices for flights around Thanksgivi­ng have hit their lowest 52 days out; following that calculatio­n, you can extend your shopping window through early October.

Berg falls somewhere in between. “Really this sweet spot is booking those trips in late September or October,” she says.

Of course, you could skip the turkey and go abroad instead. As Thanksgivi­ng week doesn’t mean much to the rest of the world, it’s one of the cheapest times to travel internatio­nally. You can follow the two-toeight month timeline, but Keyes says it’s also possible to find last-minute deals on trips overseas.

CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR’S: JULY THROUGH OCTOBER

While you’re at the beach in the throes of summer, start your Christmas and New Year’s domestic airfare shopping.

“When Fourth of July rolls around, that’s when you should be looking around for Christmas trips,” Keyes says.

Google Flights data has shown lowest prices for late December flights appear around 71 days before takeoff. This Christmas, that’s mid-October.

 ?? Dreamstime/TNS ?? The “Goldilocks Window” is the period when cheap fares are most likely to pop up, and it will vary depending on whether you’re traveling domestic or internatio­nal.
Dreamstime/TNS The “Goldilocks Window” is the period when cheap fares are most likely to pop up, and it will vary depending on whether you’re traveling domestic or internatio­nal.

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