The reason for hope amid departure of key Dolphins
Monday felt like a punch to the gut, like being on the wrong end of a jarring hit from Christian Wilkins ora punishing pancake block from
Robert Hunt and then watching the Brink’s truck drive around to the side entrance to pick up both of them before you even know what hit you.
Select any devastating word that starts with D to describe how the Dolphins’ defense was decimated the past two weeks: depressing, distressing, demoralizing. Wilkins, Xavien Howard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, DeShon Elliott and Brandon Jones all exited. Hunt departed on offense.
But here’s what this was not, at least in our view: a referendum on the rebuild. Nor was it the close of the Dolphins’ window to compete for something meaningful.
Here’s why: Buffalo has moved on from a bunch of good players in recent days; the New York Jets showed last year that they’re probably not nearly good enough even with a healthy
Aaron Rodgers; and the New England Patriots are immersed in a rebuild. So the AFC East remains for the taking every bit as much as it did a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins still have six very good players on offense (Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane and Terron Armstead), capable offensive line starters in new center Aaron Brewer and Austin Jackson ,a tight end (Jonnu Smith) who led all NFL players at his position in average yards after the catch the past three years and a reliable tight end tag-team partner in Durham Smythe.
On defense, they still have high-end players in Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb (both coming off injuries, with Chubb’s ACL jeopardizing the start of next season); an elite cornerback in Jalen Ramsey and a capable Howard replacement in Kendall Fuller (who allowed 30 or fewer receiving yards in a game 18 times over the past two seasons for Washington).
They have a safety with Pro Bowl skills in
Jevon Holland ;a former Pro Bowl safety alongside him in Jordan Poyer (still effective at 32); a reliable, productive tackle in
Zach Sieler and two high-energy tackle machines at inside linebacker in
David Long Jr. and newcomer
Jordyn Brooks.
$58M IN 2025 CAP SPACE
They also have, at the moment, $58 million in 2025 cap space and the likelihood of having five draft picks in the first three rounds of that April 2025 draft — their own first-, secondand third-round choices and two likely third-round compensatory picks for losing Wilkins and Hunt.
While an extension for Tagovailoa and potential extensions for Waddle, Phillips and Holland will consume a large chunk of that $58 million, remember that the second year on Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts’ new deal had a $21.7 million cap hit. So Year 2 of a proposed Tagovailoa deal shouldn’t be cap-crippling.
And a lot more than the current $58 million in 2025 space can be created; keep in mind that not a single player on the team is currently owed any guaranteed money past 2024, per overthecap.com. (Brooks’ contract is guaranteed to 2025 only if he has a significant injury next season.)
And even more 2025 cap space can be saved by cutting players or extending Hill or, for example, releasing Armstead, which would save $14 million against the cap.
So Miami will have considerable flexibility to add talent next spring.
Remember: Solid starters likely will become available in postdraft cuts, and Miami will be in ideal position to sign most anyone they like, because the $18.5 million in cap space from the release of Howard becomes available after June 1. And players signed after May 1 don’t count among the compensatorypick formula.
As much as Wilkins and Hunt will be missed, keep this in mind: The combined 2025 cap number for Wilkins (with the
Las Vegas Raiders) and Hunt (with the Carolina Panthers) is $56 million.
That would have left Miami with practically no cap space next offseason, with Tagovailoa, Phillips, Waddle and Holland not even accounted for on their books for 2025.
So losing homegrown talent was painful but probably unavoidable if the Dolphins want to retain what’s left of the current core.
Now let’s be clear on three things:
1.) I don’t agree with declining A to match Minnesota’s twoyear, $20 million offer for Van Ginkel and instead signing aging
Shaq Barrett. Van Ginkel is three years younger and was the better player in every measurable metric last season.
2.) I would have gambled on
A
Wilkins by placing the $20.9 million non-exclusive franchise tag on him; an interested team would have had to give Miami a pair of first-round picks to sign Wilkins if the Dolphins didn’t match the offer. That might have had the best potential result for Miami, but it also could have left the Dolphins in a bigger cap crunch this offseason. So I understand why the Dolphins bypassed that option, and Wilkins’ cap space was essentially used to sign five players last week.
3.) The defensive line additions
A so far have been underwhelming. Nose tackle Benito Jones — a starter in Detroit last season — isn’t as good as Raekwon Davis (gone to Indianapolis). Pro Football Focus rated Jones 124th (and Davis 79th) of 129 defensive tackles last season.
The two players signed so far to compete for Wilkins’ job — Dallas’ Neville Gallimore and Denver’s Jonathan Harris — are more backups than starters. More defensive line talent will need to be added alongside Sieler so that the Dolphins’ run defense doesn’t unravel after allowing just 3.8 yards per carry last season, which tied for third in the league.
And guard must still be addressed; several well-regarded guards (and a skilled defensive tackle or two) are expected to be available when Miami picks 21st overall April 25.
DON’T OVERSTATE LOSSES
Let’s not overstate the personnel losses in totality. Howard, while still effective, was no longer the All-Pro cornerback of yesteryear, and injuries were an issue the past two seasons. PFF rated newcomer Fuller the seventh best of 127 cornerbacks last season; Howard was rated 98th.
Baker was replaced by a somewhat better player in Brooks. Poyer is a skilled and pedigreed replacement for Elliott and
Jones.
And no guard is going to have a dramatic impact on wins and losses, and that takes nothing away from Hunt, the Dolphins’ best Day 2 offensive-line draft selection this century.
Let’s be real about this, too: Even with Wilkins, Hunt, Baker and Howard, there was no indication that this team — as currently composed — was good enough to beat the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs.
So if you were going to judge this rebuild by whether they make a Super Bowl, then the blame lies primarily with not finding a generational quarterback. But don’t get me started on how they mishandled the 2019 tank.
Disappointment over last week’s handful of key departures is understandable, but to say this proves the rebuild has failed (two years into the “win now” era) feels premature, because so many key Dolphins are still in their prime — from Hill to Chubb to Phillips to the Long/ Brooks inside-linebacker tandem to Tagovailoa.
Let’s see how general manager Chris Grier fills the roster’s deficiencies over the next four months and what the Dolphins can do when their draft war chest is replenished in 13 months and when more cap flexibility arrives next March.
It’s difficult to ask for patience from the only NFL fan base that hasn’t experienced a playoff win in 23 years. But the fact they were a playoff team the past two years should buy them a bit more time to see this process through.
And if they don’t make enough right decisions in the next year or two, and if there’s still no playoff win to show for any of this, then judging this Dolphins’ rebuild through a harsh prism will be thoroughly justified.