Dolphins, Marlins, Heat face toughest schedules of teams in their leagues
Not only is restarting sports in a pandemic daunting, but South Florida’s pro teams might have the most daunting slate of games of any market in the country.
Per a formula devised by former Memphis Grizzlies executive and ex-ESPN analytics guru John Hollinger, who now writes for The Athletic, the Heat has the most difficult schedule of eight seeding games of the 22 teams invited to participate in the Orlandoarea NBAre-start.
Miami will face seven teams that have clinched playoff berths (Denver, Milwaukee, Boston, Indiana twice, Oklahoma City and Toronto), plus Phoenix, which is a playoff long shot.
This is especially irksome for Heat fans because Miami had arguably the NBA’s easiest remaining schedule wiped out because of the pandemic, with eight games against the Hornets, Bulls, Knicks and Pistons.
Meanwhile, fangraphs.com — using their MLB formula — said the Marlins have the second-most difficult schedule in baseball this season, behind only the Baltimore Orioles.
The Marlins will play all of their games against the
National League East, which is loaded with pricey players, and the American League East, where the Yankees won 103 games last season, Tampa Bay 96 and Boston 84.
And the Dolphins schedule is third-toughest in football this season, behind the Patriots and Jets, based on 2019 winning percentage.
Miami gets the difficult double West whammy draw (AFC West and NFC West), faces an improved Cincinnati team and must play perhaps its worst opponent (Jacksonville) on the road, on a short week (Thursday road games historically give Miami trouble).
All AFC East teams play the AFC West and NFC West in a schedule rotation formulation that was set years ago.
So we’re fortunate to have sports back. But South Florida teams weren’t remotely fortunate with their schedule draws.
THIS AND THAT
A word from oddsmakers: Betonline.com is listing the Heat’s odds of winning a championship at 40 to 1, tied with Dallas and Utah and behind the Lakers, Bucks, Clippers, Rockets, Celtics, 76ers, Raptors, Nuggets…
Fangraphs predicts the Marlins will finish 24-36 and last in the National League East...
VegasInsider.com lists the Dolphins’ over/under for wins at 6; only Carolina, Cincinnati, Washington and Jacksonville have lower odds.
Among the three teams competing for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference (Miami, Indiana, Philadelphia), the 76ers have the easiest schedule.
The 76ers have only three games against teams definitely headed to postseason (Indiana, Toronto, Houston) and five games against teams that are competing to get in (San Antonio, Washington, Orlando, Portland and Phoenix).
The Pacers’ seeding schedule also is easier than Miami’s — featuring five sure-fire playoff teams (the Heat twice, Houston, Lakers, and Philadelphia) — plus three trying to make the postseason (Orlando, Washington, Phoenix). Indiana will be hurt by not having guard Victor Oladipo, who has opted to sit out the re-start.
Miami enters the restart fourth in the East, two games ahead of Indiana and Philadelphia.
Quick Marlins stuff: While the most prominent name left off the Marlins’ 60-man available 2020 player pool list was outfielder Victor Victor Mesa (a disappointment last season and not close to big-league ready), the most questionable exclusion from the 60 was outfielder Peyton Burdick.
A case could be made that Burdick was the Marlins’ most impressive minor league hitter last season, batting .308 with 11 homers, 65 RBI, 20 doubles and 7 for 7 in steals in 69 games in two levels of lower A ball. A 2019 third-round pick out of Wright State, he’s 23, mature and a polished hitter….
It’s not a surprise that pitchers Alex Vesia and Nick Neidert and outfielder Monte Harrison were invited to the Marlins Park workouts, since all three have a chance to stick on the opening day roster.
But shortstop Jazz Chisholm’s
inclusion in that Marlins Park camp — as opposed to the alternate Jupiter camp where JJ Bleday, Jesus Sanchez, Sixto Sanchez and other top prospects will be training — was eyebrow-raising because he’s not considered quite big-league ready.
Ideally, the Marlins wouldn’t start the bigleague service-time clock on Chisholm or Bleday this year; both Jesus and Sixto Sanchez are considered closer and could be needed at some point this season.
UM athletic director Blake James said on the Packer & Durham Show on the ACC Network that he remains cautiously optimistic there will be college football this fall.
“If we want to have college football this fall, which my plan is that we will and
I believe that the other leaders in the league believe that is the case as we sit here today, but I think everyone is getting more nervous and we will have continued conversations,” James said Tuesday. “If we all do our part the odds of us having a fall sports season are a lot higher than if that wasn’t the case, if we don’t do what we need to do...
“I think the key is the next five or six weeks. It is important for all of us to continue to follow the guidelines that our leaders are putting in place. Reminding everyone we need to wear the masks to make sure we have a fall sports season. That is something where we all have a responsibility individually and as leaders to communicate that out.”