Realistically, Fins don’t have to worry about high expectations for 2020
The folks who run the Dolphins are the luckiest people in the NFL. Seriously.
These folks last year delivered one of the five worst seasons in team history and, well, everyone was happy. At the very least, everyone was satisfied.
“I found my coach,” owner Stephen Ross said of Brian Flores.
We cleared out a bunch of salary cap space, everyone within the organization pointed out.
We gained high draft picks and a bunch of them, fans sang.
The 2019 season in which the Dolphins delivered a 5-11 record was a rousing success!
Onward!
So here we are in the onward stage and what are the Dolphins doing now? They are forgetting about last year. And probably getting a pass on this season, too.
“I think 2019 is in the past and every year is a little bit different,” Flores said. “This year is no different from that standpoint. The things that happened a year ago — good or bad — we’re just kind of focused on getting better each and every day.
“Last year is last year. [We’re] just trying to improve and get better, build some team chemistry and learn and grow as a team right now. I’m not really worried about anything that happened a year ago.”
Flores, his players and assistants are focused on 2020 now. They’re trying to do everything they can to make this looming season a success, and the next stage in that is the current OTA portion of training camp before the start of padded practices on Monday.
But reality doesn’t see the 2020 season that way.
This is the realistic view of the upcoming Dolphins season: It’s a getting-toknow-you season. If the team wins, that will be a pleasant surprise. But we all know
it’s not about this year.
That’s what fans believe. This year is about laying a foundation.
(Everyone thought last year was about laying a foundation, but the Dolphins are getting two foundations!)
And these are the reasons it’s hard to argue with that point of view:
The Dolphins drafted 11 rookies, with three of those coming in the first round and five coming in the first two rounds. Normally players drafted that high are expected to play quickly and succeed fairly soon.
Not this group.
Because a pandemic wiped out the NFL offseason conditioning program, OTA practices, rookie and veteran minicamps, the preseason and the usual approach to the start of training camp. The league’s 2020 class of rookies are generally expected to struggle this season.
Smart NFL people believe this season’s successful rookies will be the exception and not the norm.
So Dolphins rookies, like all rookies, get a break on expectations.
The thing that makes the Miami situation different is that Dolphins rookies are about 20 percent of the roster. And the Dolphins were supposed to rely on them to improve the product for 2020. So we are already rationalizing why 20 percent of the roster might not be good this season.
This draft class, by the way, includes first pick
Tua Tagovailoa.
Normally, when a team drafts a quarterback in the top 10 of the draft, that player is expected to contribute very soon if not right away. Example: Joe Burrow, the first overall pick, is already the starting quarterback for the
Cincinnati Bengals.
But Tagovailoa is getting something of a redshirt in 2020.
He didn’t request it. He’s not expecting it. It is none of his doing.
But, remember, fate and reality are giving these Dolphins a break. So all the rationalizations about rookies not producing right away apply to this rookie quarterback. And then other things apply to this rookie quarterback …
… Tagovailoa is currently in a competition with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen for the starting quarterback job. That’s good. He’s competing. But hook up a lie detector to anyone within the organization with a say and you will understand Tagovailoa isn’t winning this competition, barring strange circumstances.
Neither is Rosen, by the way.
Fitzpatrick will be the starting quarterback for the Dolphins in the regular-season opener at the New England Patriots on Sept. 13. Fitzpatrick is running with the starting offense now and he will have to lose the job, or get injured or kidnapped to not be running the starting offense that first game day in September.
And will anyone be disappointed in Tagovailoa for not winning the competition? No one.
And will anyone be disappointed if Tagovailoa doesn’t play the first month of the season? No one.
The highest expectation on Tagovailoa right now is to merely learn the offense. And the highest expectation on him for the 2020 season is to possibly play later on in the season. That’s it.
And I’m not saying this is wrong. I’m saying this simply is the situation.
A similar dynamic is at play with the Dolphins’ set of new free agents. Yes, they need to contribute early and often because the Dolphins spent more money on free agent contracts in the offseason than any other team.
But, here we go, it takes a while to integrate new guys. And there’s no preseason. And no veteran minicamp. And meetings had to be in Zoom rather than in person. And finding team chemistry with so many additions is tricky.
All true.
All setting your high expectations beyond the 2020 season rather than for the 2020 season.
The competitors (coaches and players) will deny these are expectations. But no one expects Tagovailoa to be Dan Marino, Austin Jackson to be Richmond Webb, Robert Hunt to be Todd Wade and Noah Igbinoghene to be Sam Madison in 2020.
And no one expects Flores to turn this team from a loser in 2019 to a playoff team in 2020 — like Don Shula did with the Dolphins in 1970 after they had a 3-10-1 record in 1969.
Don’t believe me about this. Believe the people who make a living setting expectations.
Las Vegas bookies (they know something) have hung a 6.5 over-under win total on the Dolphins this season.
So if the Dolphins win seven games, holy moly, they overachieved! Just like last season when they overachieved in winning five games.
No high expectations. This is not a criticism. This is simply how it is. And you can test that.
Go ahead and search your heart and raise you hand if you the Dolphins to make the playoffs? Raise you hand if you Tagovailoa to be the opening-day starter? Raise your hand if you
this class of rookies to lead the charge toward turning things around this very season?
More likely, if you’re honest, you expect more foundation laying in 2020 because you expect a playoff push in 2021.
So, yes, the Dolphins get something of a pass from the public again this season. That’s just how things are now.