Pandemic creates new challenge for Dolphins’ rebuild

Some unsolicited advice to Dolphins players Davon Godchaux, Raekwon McMillan, Ted Karras, Vince Biegel and the rest of Miami’s group of potential 2021 unrestricted free agents:

You better be really, really impactful in your roles this season, because money is going to be tight next spring.

And if you’re a player with no 2021 dead money — such as Jordan Howard or Emmanuel Ogbah — you better live up to your contracts over the next five months.

Before a worldwide pandemic, the Dolphins were positioned to make another big free agent spending splash next spring, to add pricey players to augment the current core and Miami’s collection of nine 2021 draft picks, including two first-rounders and two second-rounders.

But the spending spree part of that blueprint appears less likely. It’s not out of the question and could still be achieved with a lot of heavy lifting, but it’s less likely than it was six months ago.

The NFL has announced that the cap will be at least $175 million next season, potentially more if health conditions shockingly allow for full stadiums at some point this fall.

But if it’s $175 million, that would be far less than the

$215 million to $230 million projected before COVID-19 changed everything. And that means the Dolphins will need to be judicious with their money next spring.

Here’s where things stand: The Dolphins currently have $25 million in 2020 cap space, per the NFL players association website. About $3 million will be needed for a 16-man practice squad. If the Dolphins get lucky with COVID and injuries and don’t need to use any of their remaining cap space this season, then they can carry over that $22 million to use next spring.

Problem is, Miami stands less than $7 million below the 2021 cap if it comes in at $175 million. The Dolphins have $168.5 million in 2021 cap commitments to their top 51 players under contract for 2021. Only the top 51 count against the cap.

So if Miami can carry over

$22 million (and it will probably end up less than that), and combine it with the $7 million in current 2021 space if the 2021 cap is $175 million, that would leave the Dolphins with about $29 million in cap room next spring.

And while $29 million in 2021 space would put Miami in better position than a lot of other teams (that’s tied for the NFL’s ninthmost projected 2021 cap space), it’s not a ton, considering that the cost of signing a 2021 draft class and a 2021 practice squad will eat up a chunk of that, leaving Miami with perhaps $16 million.

Most of that space would disappear if Miami simply re-signs Godchaux and McMillan and signs Karras or another center.

But it won’t be as simple as that. Even if this season goes splendidly, it’s impossible to conceive of the Dolphins not wanting to add a handful of new free agents next spring. And those players will consume cap space.

So how does Miami create that space? By restructuring some players or jettisoning others. Miami could save $9.3 million against the 2021 cap next spring by releasing Xavien Howard and $5.7 million by cutting Bobby McCain.

Also, the 2021 cap hits of Ogbah ($7.5 million) and Jordan Howard ($5 million) and Clayton Fejedelem ($2.5 million) could be completely erased by simply cutting them next offseason. To be clear, cutting Howard would only be worth considering if he’s injured much of this season or plays poorly. Otherwise, you keep him in 2021.

Miami also could work to reduce the 2021 cap numbers of some among Byron Jones

($16.1 million), ($13.9 million), Howard ($13.5 million), DeVante Parker ($11 million),

Ereck Flowers ($10 million),

Shaq Lawson ($9.3 million) and McCain ($7.1 million).

Moving on from Jakeem

Grant after this season would save $2.9 million, which isn’t worth it if he plays well this season. Cutting Allen Hurns would erase just $700,000 of his $2.9 million 2021 cap hit. Cutting Wilson would erase $2.9 million of his $5.2 million hit. Hurns’ and Wilson’s 2020 contracts become their 2021 contracts because they opted out of playing this season.

So there are ways to make it work as the Dolphins enter year three of the rebuild, a year when there shouldn’t be excuses. But it’s going to be far more challenging than they expected.

CHATTER

UF beat out UM for two key Miami Palmetto High recruits this week: five-star safety Corey Collier and four-star cornerback Jason Marshall. But of the five high-end Palmetto prospects, Miami has commitments from three: defensive lineman Leonard Taylor, receiver Brashard Smith and four-star defensive tackle Savion Collins.

One UM player conveyed that this is UM’s best freshman class in a while and they will make a significant impact if there’s a season. And that extends well beyond running back

Jaylon Knighton, whose impressive spring work has carried over to the first three spring practices. … Freshman linebacker Tirek Austin-Cave is getting work at striker, where he will compete with Gilbert Frierson and Keontra Smith. … An early standout of camp: defensive end

Quincy Roche, who “has been really, really good these five days of practice,” coach Manny Diaz said.

Are more people watching the Heat and Marlins since the return of sports? For the Heat,

2.9 percent of Miami-Fort Lauderdale homes tuned in, on average, to the first six Heat games — same as before the pandemic — but this 2.9 is stronger because two games were on weekday afternoons, when viewership is traditionally low. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ first 10 games averaged a 1.2 rating in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale market, equal to 1.2 percent of Dade/Broward homes with TV sets. That’s up 43 percent over their TV ratings last season. One local ratings point equals 16,522 homes.

The Florida Panthers received permission to speak with former Panthers player Scott Mellanby for their general manager job, vacated when Florida parted ways with Dale Tallon. Mellanby is Montreal’s assistant general manager and played for Panthers coach Joel Quenneville in St. Louis.