The true virus toll in U.S. has already surpassed 200,000
Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is more than 30,000 higher than the number of deaths counted by Johns Hopkins University.
As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the virus, as people die from the virus as well as by other causes linked to the pandemic.
When the coronavirus took hold in the United States in March, the bulk of deaths above normal levels, or “excess deaths,” were in the Northeast, as New York and New Jersey saw huge surges.
The Northeast still makes up nearly half of all excess deaths in the country, although numbers in the region have drastically declined since the peak in April.
But as the number of hot spots expanded, so has the number of excess deaths across other parts of the country. Many of the recent coronavirus cases and deaths in the South and the West may have been driven largely by reopenings and relaxed social distancing restrictions.
Counting deaths takes time and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. The estimates from the CDC are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. Even with this adjustment, it’s possible there could be an underestimate of the complete death toll if increased mortality is causing states to lag more than they have in the past or if states have changed their reporting systems.
But comparing recent totals of deaths from all causes can provide a more complete picture of the pandemic’s effect than tracking only deaths of people with confirmed diagnoses.
DEATHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH
Nine of the 13 states in the South started seeing excess deaths surge in July, months into the pandemic. A spike in cases in places like Texas put pressure on hospitals, echoing the chaos that ensued in New York months earlier. South Carolina, among the first states to reopen retail stores, saw deaths reach 1.6 times normal levels in midJuly. Unlike other states in this region, Louisiana saw its excess deaths peak in April – when total deaths reached 1.7 times normal levels. Medical experts said Mardi Gras gatherings most likely contributed to this spike.
DEATHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST
In July, coronavirus deaths in Arizona surged, although new daily cases have since decreased. In California, the first state to issue a stay-at-home order this spring, coronavirus deaths climbed up in July, after a reopening that some health officials warned was too fast.
DEATHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDWEST
In the Midwest, states like Michigan and Illinois saw their peaks in April. Detroit was particularly hard hit by the virus.