Survey finds strong political support for Trump among Cuban-Americans
A majority of CubanAmericans in Miami-Dade County approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, health and Cuba policy, and will vote for him in November, according to the latest edition of the Cuba poll from Florida International University.
Fifty-nine percent of Cuban-Americans interviewed said they would vote to reelect Trump. Only 25% said they would vote for Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
Trump won an estimated 54% of the Cuban-American vote in 2016.
The telephone survey, which was released on Friday, included 1,002 participants who were interviewed between July 7 and Aug. 17. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The results indicate that the majority of Cuban-American voters support the administration’s policies toward Cuba on issues such as maintaining the embargo (54%), the sanctions campaign to force a regime change on the island (68%), and the elimination of cruise ships (55%).
There is only one issue that Cuban Americans disagree on with Trump’s Cuba policies: immigration. Fiftyeight percent of respondents oppose the suspension of visa issuing at the U.S. Embassy in Havana and the family-reunification program.
The study, carried out by FIU every two years since the 1990s, also shows the paradoxes and mixed views in the community. For example, although the majority favors maintaining the embargo, 66% of those surveyed also believe that it has not worked or has not worked very well. And 57% support suspending the sanctions during the coronavirus pandemic.
The contrasting opinions regarding Cuba policy, including support of engagement policies under President Barack Obama and then the strong backing of Trump’s hardline measures, suggest “Cubans are just part of American politics and follow the leadership in issues that relate to them,” said Guillermo Grenier, the study’s director and head of FIU’s Department of Global and Sociocultural Studies.
Despite the popularity of Trump’s policies, the study shows that the Cuban-American
community also supports some of Obama’s measures, such as maintaining diplomatic relations with Cuba and implementing policies supporting the Cuban people. But in general, Cuba policy is not a priority issue for Cuban-American voters, with the economy and healthcare topping the list.
“It is not surprising that the poll measures a certain amount of ambivalence in the population,” Grenier said. “Most Cubans desire change in Cuba and in the U.S. Cuba policy. They are unclear, even after 60 years of experience, whether isolation or engagement will bring about change, so they are leaving the door open to more engagement while signaling that, perhaps due to the leadership provided by Trump and his administration, they are willing to give isolation policies their support. Still, both tendencies are evident in the community.”
RECENT ARRIVALS BECOME REPUBLICANS
The biggest surprise in the results is the inroads that the Republican Party has made in the community, especially among Cubans who recently arrived, Grenier said. Seventy-six percent of those surveyed who came to the U.S. between 2010 and 2015 said they are Republicans.
Possible explanations for such Republican “rejuvenation” are the party’s and the Trump administration’s strong presence in MiamiDade, Grenier said. “It is a natural attraction for those people who come and want to feel part of the community, who want to feel empowered. Historically, the Republican Party has been better at talking to Cubans than the Democratic Party.”
But attitudes toward the Cuban government might also be at work in recent arrivals’ strong support for hard-line policies and the GOP more generally. The trend had been picked up in a 2019 survey by Democratic pollster Equis Research.
“Those who arrived between 2010 to 2015 aren’t
They are a direct product of the Revolution. The Cuban government’s policies and resistance to reforms continue to create generational waves of opposition,” said Ric Herrero, the Cuba Study Group’s executive director. “But instead of granting them representation at home, the system casts its aggrieved citizens off to Florida, where they do vote.”