After reaching 2020 Finals, Heat has pieces in place to contend for title again
The 2019-20 season was one of the most memorable in Miami Heat history, and not just because it advanced to the NBA Finals for the sixth time in franchise history. It’s the path the fifthseeded Heat took to get there.
Miami is only the third team seeded fifth or lower to play in the NBA Finals since the playoffs expanded to its present 16-team format in 1984. The eighth-seeded New York Knicks represented the Eastern Conference in the 1999 Finals and the sixthseeded Houston Rockets represented the Western Conference in the 1995 Finals.
The Heat also advanced to the Finals with just one top-10 draft pick on its roster — veteran forward Andre Iguodala, who was ninth overall selection in 2004. Miami used three undrafted players in the Finals series: Derrick Jones Jr., Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson.
What do the Heat’s accomplishments this season mean for next season and beyond? Here are some observations and takeaways:
If anyone still had any doubt whether Heat AllStar Jimmy Butler was a true max-level player, just look at his Finals stat line. He averaged 26.2 points while shooting 55.2 percent from the field, 8.3 rebounds and 9.8 assists in 43 minutes in the championship series.
According to Elias Sports, Butler became just the second player in NBA history to lead his team outright in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in a Finals series. The other player is LeBron James, who did it in the 2016 Finals against the Golden State Warriors.
Also, for those worried about the heavy minutes Butler (19,187 regularseason minutes in the
Jimmy Butler proved he’s a top-notch NBA player, Bam Adebayo made the leap to All-Star, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson raised their games, and Goran Dragic stayed healthy. All are signs of progress.
NBA) has played during his career and how it might affect him moving forward, it’s not as bad as it might seem.
Kemba Walker (22,349 minutes) and Klay Thompson (20,338 minutes), who were both in Butler’s 2011 draft class, have each logged more regular-season minutes during their NBA careers. Even Damian Lillard, who was drafted into the NBA one year after Butler, has played more regular-season NBA minutes (22,378) than Butler during his career.
Maybe the most important development for the Heat this season was the huge leap center Bam Adebayo, 23, took in his third NBA season.
In Adebayo’s first season as a full-time starter, he averaged career highs in points (15.9), rebounds (10.2), assists (5.1), steals (1.1), blocks (1.3) and minutes (33.6) on his way to earning his first All-Star Game appearance and the NBA’s All-Defensive second team. Adebayo and NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo were the only two players in the league who averaged at least 15 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, one steal and one block during the regular season.
Adebayo then elevated his game in the playoffs before straining his neck in the NBA Finals, as he averaged 17.8 points on 56.4 percent shooting, 10.3 rebounds and 4.4 assists in the postseason. He’s the eighth player in NBA history to average at least 17 points on 55 percent shooting, 10 rebounds and four assists in a single postseason. That list also includes Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Antetokounmpo, Charles Barkley, Elton Brand, Wilt Chamberlain, James and Shaquille O’Neal.
Adebayo’s offensive game is already expanding, too. He was 17 of 37 (45.9 percent) on midrange shots this postseason after shooting 22.3 percent from midrange in the regular season.
The expectation is Adebayo will also become a reliable three-point shooter in the future, but he has not incorporated that into his game yet. He was 2 of 14 from three-point range in the regular season and 0 of 1 in the playoffs.
Heat rookie Tyler Herro played his best basketball of the season in the playoffs. The 20-year-old averaged 16 points while shooting 43.3 percent from the field and 37.5 percent on threes, 5.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists in 33.6 minutes this postseason.
The only active players who averaged at least 16 points on 43 percent shooting, five rebounds and three assists in the playoffs as a rookie are Ben Simmons and Derrick Rose.
The question entering next season is: Will Herro become a full-time starter after starting just eight of 55 regular-season games and five of 21 postseason games as a rookie? With guard Goran Dragic injured in the Finals, Herro started in his place.
After spending most of his rookie season in the G League, Robinson proved to be one of the NBA’s top shooters and a very important part of the Heat’s offense in his second season.
Robinson, 26, finished the regular season tied with Lillard for the thirdmost made threes in the NBA at 270. Only Houston’s James Harden (299 threes) and Sacramento’s Buddy Hield (271) finished with more.
Robinson is also only the second player in league history to finish a season with 270 or more made threes while shooting better than 44 percent from deep. The other? Golden State’s Stephen Curry.
With Robinson serving as the ultimate floor spacer, he recorded a team-best plus/minus of plus-351 during the regular season, well ahead of second-place Butler at plus-257. The Heat posted a quality offensive rating of 113.8 when Robinson was on the court during the regular season. No current Heat player had a more positive impact in terms of offensive rating.
Robinson did go through some struggles in his first NBA postseason, as opponents made sure to defend him closely and attack his defensive limitations. But he still managed to hit three threes per game on 39.7 percent shooting from deep in the playoffs, and was a plus-25.
One of the Heat’s easiest decisions this offseason will be to guarantee Robinson’s $1.6 million salary for next season. He will be a restricted free agent in 2021.
The Heat’s offense was the biggest reasons for its success, as it finished the regular season with the NBA’s seventh-best offensive rating (scoring 111.9 points per 100 possessions). It’s the most efficient offensive rating Miami has posted since the NBA began recording the stat in the 1996-97 season.
Other numbers that are representative of the
Heat’s offensive explosion: Miami recorded the NBA’s 10th-best team shooting percentage (46.8), secondbest three-point shooting percentage (37.9) and 13thbest free-throw shooting percentage (78.3) while assisting on the third-highest percentage of made shots in the NBA at 65.7 percent.
The Heat was below average in almost every offensive category last season: 22nd in shooting percentage (45), 21st in three-point shooting percentage (34.9), 30th in free-throw percentage (69.5) and 26th in offensive rating (106.7 points per 100 possessions).
This drastic offensive improvement was a big part of the Heat’s turnaround this season, and it will be expected to be a big part of the team’s success next season.
One of the most encouraging aspects of the Heat’s deep playoff run was that it took a step forward in its late-game execution. After posting an 18-18 record in “clutch” games during the regular season, Miami went 11-3 in those situations this postseason.
A “clutch” game is defined as one that has a margin of five points or fewer inside the final five minutes of the fourth quarter.
The Heat absolutely dominated in “clutch” situations during the playoffs, outscoring opponents 38.9 points per 100 possessions.
While that level of “clutch” play is very likely not sustainable, the fact the Heat was so good in those situations is a positive step for the team. Will it carry over into next season? Success in close games is usually the difference between a good team and a very good team.
Not only was Dragic still very effective in his 12th NBA season at age 34, but he also avoided knee issues after playing in a career-low 36 games in 2018-19 because of right knee surgery in December 2018.
Dragic had doubts whether he would ever return to form after lingering pain in his knee during training camp last October forced him to miss multiple practices. But he missed 14 games in the regular season and none were because of his surgically repaired right knee. Dragic missed four games in the playoffs, all coming in the Finals because of a torn plantar fascia in his left foot.
Dragic, who will become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, entered the Finals averaging a teamhigh 20.9 points on 45.2 percent shooting, to go with 4.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists during the playoff run.
The early power rankings are already out for next season, and the Heat is not in the top five despite representing the East in the Finals this season.
ESPN released the “way-too-early edition” of its power rankings, and the Heat is ninth on the list. Miami is behind three East teams — the No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks, No. 7 Celtics and No. 8 Philadelphia 76ers.
The Heat also has been given the fourth-best odds to win the East next season at 6-to-1, according to BetOnline, behind the Bucks (7-to-2), Celtics (15-to-4) and Brooklyn
Nets (15-to-4). Miami also currently has the seventhbest odds to win the NBA championship at 14-to-1.
IN OTHER NEWS
Heat assistant coaches Dan Craig and Chris Quinn have both been linked to the Indiana Pacers’ coaching job, and both would now be able to interview for the opening if granted permission by the Heat organization.
The Pacers dismissed head coach Nate McMillan after they were swept by the Heat in the first round of this year’s playoffs.