Florida jobless aid hits another pandemic low — but U.S. increase might spell trouble

New applications for unemployment aid in Florida hit a pandemic low for the second straight week, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday. But the ongoing rate of new claims nationally suggests continued economic distress that could trickle down to the Sunshine State.

For the week ending

Nov. 14, initial unemployment claims in Florida fell from 31,403 to 21,538. So-called continuing claims, or applications from individuals filing for unemployment for at least two consecutive weeks, also fell, from 205,800 to 165,388. Some of the decline in continuing claims was likely due to the expiration of an individual’s 12 weeks of state benefits.

Florida’s drop bucked the national trend. For the U.S., the number of new applications for unemployment climbed from 711,000 to 742,000, the Labor Department reported.

Much of this increase was driven by a surge in new claims in Louisiana, which saw 32,000 new filings. Without that figure, claims would have come in about in line with The Wall Street Journal’s economist survey consensus forecast of 710,000.

Even that estimate signaled a downbeat look for the U.S. economy.

“Our analysis of Google searches for ‘file for unemployment’ ... suggests that the third COVID wave is taking a toll,” said Pantheon Macroeconomics research group chief economist Ian Shepherdson in a note to clients Wednesday.

Last month, data showed U.S. retail sales grew at their slowest pace since spring, climbing just 0.3% compared with a 1.6% increase in September.

“The fact that more than 20 million people are still seeking continuing jobless benefits in one form or another points to lost momentum in the labor market rebound,” Wells Fargo Securities economists wrote in a note on Friday.