Dolphins have edge, make playoffs if Bills rest QB Allen
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
DOLPHINS (10-5) at BILLS (12-3)
Line: BUF by 3.
Cote’s pick: MIA 20-17. TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
Buffalo. Early January. Temps in the 30s. Snow showers likely. That’s the Dolphins’ opponent Sunday. Oh, and the Bills, too. The point spread, given the weather, should be favoring Buffalo by maybe double the 3 points it is. Heck, Bills were only favored by a mere 1 1⁄ before Miami
2 lost insurance-QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to a COVID test-positive Thursday and the bet-line doubled. So what gives? 1) Bills are locked into AFC’s No. 2 or 3 seed, with no clear advantage to either. Makes it likely Buffs will rest key starters. As a template for what we might expect: When Week 17 didn’t matter much one year ago, QB Josh Allen played only seven snaps. 2) Dolphins make playoffs with a win,
or if either the Ravens, Browns or Colts lose. No guarantees there, though, so Fins looking at this as must-win. Buffs at full strength, in this climate, are clear faves. But Bills’ big edge is on the attack, and fall from Josh Allen to backup Matt Barkley is steep, so that’s a difference-maker if indeed Allen plays little or even not at all. Having said that, it’s all-or-nothing with Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday, because the backup goes now from super-reliable Fitzpatrick to thoroughly untested Jake Rudock. It’s an all-Sunday, all-division games schedule to wrap this NFL regular season, and the slate is a minefield of games like this where the pick is at the mercy of who starts and who plays how much. Bottom line? If Sean McDermott goes all-out and Allen is slinging 40 passes, I may be in trouble. If it plays out as I imagine, the weather will limit the score and play into Miami’s defense-first
modus operandi. The league’s most improved D has gotten the Fins this far. Time to bring it home.
Upset!
(P.S., please do take the day off Josh Allen. You earned the rest!)
GAME OF THE WEEK WASHINGTON (6-9) at EAGLES (4-10-1)
Line:
Cote’s pick:
TV:
WAS by 2.
WAS 23-20. 8:20 p.m., NBC.
This might be a first. In our 30 years of NFL picks in the Miami Herald, this has to be the first Game of the Week pitting two teams with losing records. Oh the drama, though! It’s perfect. Prime-time match. The very last of 256 regularseason games in a pandemic season, determining the very last playoff spot. Pressure much? The Washington No-Names, the team playing its first season defrocked of its racist nickname, claim the NFC Least crown and make the playoffs by winning. Period. And dastardly rival Philadelphia and Jalen Hurts loom as spoilers, poised for the upset that would send the Cowboys-Giants winner to the postseason instead. But I see WAS in a good place entering this game after cleansing itself of Dwayne Haskins, a good (and popular) move by Ron Rivera. No-Names are solid on defense, and Indications also are that QB Alex Smith (calf) will be ready to go and put the cherry on a Comeback Player of the Year season.
Might’ve leaned Birds if Smith weren’t starting. Now give us a break, Eagles, and don’t go ruining everything!
UPSET OF THEWEEK CARDINALS (8-7) at RAMS (9-6)
Line: ARI by 3.
Cote’s pick: LAR 19-16.
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.
“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “John Wolford!? Who? What! Whaawwk!” Nope, I’d never heard of John Wolford, either, until this week. Undrafted out of Wake Forest in 2018, 5-11 1⁄2, now about to make his first NFL start — and take his first professional snap — in a game that will shape the NFC playoffs. Rams QB Jared Goff is out injured, so welcome, John Whoford! Huge game. L.A. makes playoffs with a win or a Bears loss. Arizona makes playoffs with a win — period. No other way in. Kyler Murray is expected to be a go for must-win Cards, although his leg issues figure to limit the mobility and run-option that makes him such a threat. This pick counts on a very good Rams defense (for me the best in the league) asserting itself in a way that will ease the pressure on this greenest possible QB.
“’John Wolford’ sounds like the name of a community college vice president,” notes U-Bird. “Los Angeles Raaawwwk!”
REST OF WEEK 17 Ravens (10-5, -13) over @Bengals (4-10-1), 31-16:
Baltimore clinches playoffs with a win or with a loss by Browns or Colts. In other words, Ravens will be locked in must-win mode. Though Bengals have won two in a row, BAL is 13-2 in December under Lamar Jackson and really percolating on offense in its four-game win streak. Cincy’s overwhelmed defense will be no match.
@Brown (0-15, -9) over Steelers (12-3), 23-20:
Pittsburgh has clinched its division title and is comfy enough moving forward to sit some starters including Ben Roethlisberger here; Mason Rudolph will start at QB. Hence the otherwise lunatic betting line. Cleveland will cinch its first playoff ticket since 2002 by winning. Browns could back-door it with other results, but are treating this as must-win. I’m nervous for Clevelanders. Team has been hit with COVID issues this week, and an upset by JV Steelers would only mildly surprise.
Vikings (6-9, -7) over @Lions (5-10), 27-23: One of only three games (NYJNE, LV-DEN) with both teams out of any and all playoff hope. Both have lost three in a row. Vikes RB Dalvin Cook is expected to miss game over recent death of his father, while an ankle injury may sideline Lions QB Mathew Stafford. Lean better team,
but homies with points.
@Patriots (6-9, -3) over Jets (2-13), 19-13: Not sure which should please a Dolphins fans more: NYJ winning two in a row to blow its future by giving up the No. 1 draft pick and Trevor Lawrence. Or the idea of Bill Belichick slumped on his couch in a gray hoodie watching the playoffs on TV. Pats have beaten Planes nine straight. Old habits die hard.
Cowboys (6-9, -2) over @Giants (5-10), 24-16:
The winner here will have its hands on a playoff ticket ... for a few hours, at least. Winner is NFC Least champ— unless Washington wins Sunday night and snatches the title. Though an upset by Biggies tempts, teams have gone in opposite directions past few games, and Andy Dalton outscoring a weak NYG offense isn’t a ton to ask.
@Buccaneers (10-5, -7) over Falcons (4-11),
31-26: Bruce Arians assures his Bucs will be playing to win. Which means Tom Brady starts. No wonder. A win secures No. 5 NFC seed, which would mean Tampa opens its first playoffs since 2007 vs. a losing-record NFC East champ. Be wary, though: Falcons are a nemesis foe for Bucs and still fighting.
Packers (12-3, -5 1⁄2)
over @Bears (8-7), 30-23:
High stakes. Green Bay gets a playoff bye with a win (or a Seahawks loss), so will be gunning to earn a week off. Chicago makes the playoffs by winning, or
if Cardinals lose. Pack has won five straight and Bears three in a row. Gee Bees have owned this series lately, including a 9-1 run at Soldier Field — but Chitown has scored 30-plus in four straight games for first time since Gale Sayers’ 1965. Home-’dog cover tempts, but trust new MVP front-runner Aaron Rodgers.
@Broncos (5-10, +2 1⁄2)
over Raiders (7-8), 20-17:
Two teams prat-falling to the finish line. Vegas joined Denver on the playoff sideline with last week’s loss to Miami. Pure hunch ere, but Broncos’ D enjoys a stout outing and Drew Lock (for a change) is turnover-free. Upset!
@Colts (10-5, -14) over Jaguars (1-14), 31-20:
Indy needs help and a kiss of luck to avoid becoming only the third 11-win team to not make the playoffs. Colts must win and have a loss by either Ravens, Browns or Dolphins. Jax has been mathematically eliminated since the Jimmy Carter administration but at least gets to draft Trevor Lawrence. Fourteen is a lot of points to give a nemesis opponent that has beaten Indy two straight and seven of past 10.
@Chiefs (14-1, +3 1⁄2)
over Chargers (6-9), 20-17: Kansas City has
earned the bye and so is resting some starters including QB Patrick Mahomes. The rusty ghost of Chad Henne will make his first NFL start since 2014; hence the weirdo betting line. But here’s the thing. It isn’t like eliminated-LAC has anything to really play for, right? Chiefs on a 12-1 series roll. Betting the semi-Chiefs keep that going at home. Upset! (Sort of.)
Seahawks (11-4, -5) over @49ers (6-9), 27-16:
Seattle has clinched division but gets the coveted bye with a win if both Packers and Saints lose. That’s unlikely; still, Pete Carroll says he’s in “gofor-it” mode and that Russell Wilson and other starters will play. That’s good enough for me (and this pick). Hawks on a 12-2 run in this series, and Seattle’s defense has been pretty great lately.
Saints (11-4, -6 1⁄2) over @Panthers (5-10), 27-23:
N’Awlins has clinched division but earns bye with a win if Packers lose and Seahawks win. That’s enough of a maybe to expect a full effort from the
Fleur-de-lis. But Carolina is still playing hard and tends to play Saints tough, so leaning to homies with the points.
Titans (10-5, -7 1⁄2) over @Texans (4-11), 37-31:
Tennessee wins division with a win if Colts lose, and gets in playoffs with a win or with a Dolphins loss. Derrick Henry gashed Texans D for 212 rushyards in last meeting, but watch Deshaun Watson go big too vs. a Titans D that’s last in NFL in sacks. See Houston respond to J.J. Watt’s rant against a lack of effort. Outright upset possible. Entertaining shootout likely.
[Point spreads used are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday afternoon.]
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Week 16 holiday-gifted us a nice bounce back from a recent lull. We went 12-4 overall and 10-6 against the spread — solid on both. We bull’s-eyed yet another Upset of the Week with Steelers over Colts (“Aawwk!”), nailed a second outright upset with Cowboys over Eagles, and also hit on a trio of ’dogcovers by 49ers, Falcons and Bengals. This is our 30th season of picks in the Herald and we thank you for following along! Now comes the tough part as Week 17 is wrought with games where it isn’t certain to what degree one team will be resting starters vs. playing to win — Bills-Dolphins one of those. No excuses, though. Let’s finish strong to toast 2021!
Week 16: 12-4, .750 overall; 10-6, .625 vs. spread.
Season: 154-85-1, .644 overall; 121-114-5, .515 vs. spread.
Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.
Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7,
.582 vs. spread.
Greg Cote: 305-376-3492, @gregcote