Nearly half of COVID variant cases in U.S. are in Florida as experts warn of surge
Experts say not enough is being done in Florida or in the U.S. to detect the strain, which is likely more contagious.
The mutated and likely more contagious strain of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is growing in Florida, with 22 cases now in the state, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The variant in Florida was first detected in Martin County last week.
The 22 cases account for about 42% of the 52 known to the CDC in the
United States, and experts say the new strain is likely to continue to spread as cases rise across the state and in
South Florida.
“We know it’s here now. Even though it’s
Martin County, we have to assume it’s in Miami
Dade as well,” said Mary
Jo Trepka, an infectiousdisease epidemiologist and professor at Florida
International University.
The variant, known as
B.1.1.7, caught the attention of scientists in early December based on a surge in cases in Southeast England. It’s not clear whether the new strain originated in England. It’s possible it was first detected there because the United Kingdom’s efforts to analyze cases are relatively advanced. The strain has since been detected in at least 40 other countries, including the United States.
Last week, the Florida Department of Health reported that it “had evidence” of Florida’s first identified case: a Martin County man in his 20s with no recent history of travel.
The state Department of Health has not offered any new information about cases outside the one in Martin County.
“The state continues to work closely with the
‘‘
WE HAVE TO ASSUME IT’S IN MIAMI-DADE AS WELL.
Mary Jo Trepka, an infectious-disease epidemiologist and professor at FIU
CDC to support sequencing. Through these robust efforts, 22 cases of the UK variant have been detected in Florida,” said Department of Health interim Communications Director Jason Mahon in an email Thursday night.
A variant is detected by “genomic sequencing,” or studying the virus as it changes. A person with the new strain of the virus would still test positive on most COVID-19 tests. It’s only after studying the sample that an expert can determine whether it’s a variant of SARS-CoV-2.
WHAT WE KNOW
The new strain found in Florida carries at least 22 “spike protein” mutations. The spike protein is what enables the virus to enter and infect cells. Studies out of the U.K. have suggested the variant could be up to 70% more transmissible.
Though the variant hasn’t been shown to be more severe, more spread will almost certainly cause more strain on the healthcare system, said Dr. Tim Schacker, an infectiousdisease specialist and vice dean of research at the University of Minnesota’s medical school.
“With more people spreading it ... it’s what’s causing the real concern that public-health officials are expressing right now over this new variant,” he said.
Other experts, such as Mary Petrone, a researcher at the Yale School of Public Health, noted that since the U.S. has struggled from the beginning to get control of the COVID-19 pandemic, this new variant “could exacerbate the issue.”
“I think the top concern is that the new variant B.1.1.7 will fuel even larger surges in cases across the [U.S.],” she wrote in an email.
IS FLORIDA DOING ENOUGH?
Some experts argue that Florida hasn’t done enough sequencing to determine whether it is spreading in the state. As of last week, the health department had studied nearly 3,000 samples of the virus, while the United Kingdom has sequenced at least 125,000 samples. Other states have been doing their own sequencing. In the U.S., about 51,000 samples have been sequenced.
Gigi Gronvall, an immunology expert and professor at John Hopkins University’s Center for Health Security, said the U.S. isn’t doing enough sequencing
and is lagging compared to other developed nations. This is worrisome, she said, because the U.S. might be missing other variants that could be more dangerous than the most prevalent strain of SARS-CoV-2.
“We have plenty of scientists here with the capability of sequencing and analyzing what’s going on out there,” she said. “We need to do what we failed to do at the beginning of the pandemic, in terms of contact tracing, and try to track it down so that it doesn’t become the dominant strain.”
She added that with limited resources, she’s doubtful it’ll happen.
The CDC hopes to more than double the number of samples sequenced over the next two weeks from
3,000 samples a week to about 6,000, according to a CNN report.
Dr. Eric Topol, head of Scripps Research Translational Institute in California, echoed Gronvall’s point that the U.S. is behind. He said sequencing is resource intensive. He wrote in an email that while the variant is at “a very low rate now,” there will be an “exponential increase” in coming weeks.
However, he added that many of the chemical compounds used to test for the coronavirus will detect the variant anyway. At Yale, public health researchers are already developing a specific screening test to detect the B.1.1.7 variant without using sequencing.
Trepka said that Florida certainly has the capacity
to do more sequencing, but that won’t change the preventative measures that need to be taken in order to stop the spread of the virus.
“We just need to act right now as if it’s already all over Florida, and we just have to keep drumming the message on ... that we should be stepping up our prevention,” she said.
RISE IN CASES IS THE ‘PERFECT STORM’
Trepka said it wouldn’t be surprising if cases of the new strain increase rapidly in the wake of holiday gatherings.
The state has seen record-breaking new case numbers over the last couple of weeks. On Friday, the Florida Department of Health added 19,530 new cases, 24 hours after reporting a record high single-day number of COVID-19 cases of 19,816 on Thursday.
Over the last two weeks, Miami-Dade has added around 101 additional cases daily, according to a Miami Herald analysis of the data.
“That is worrisome because it’s likely more people are going to end up in the hospitals,” she said. Trepka called the latest trends “only the beginning.”
According to the latest numbers from Miami-Dade County, there are almost 1,200 individuals in the hospital with COVID-19, 216 of them in intensivecare units.
Experts are concerned that in four to six weeks, the new variant could become the dominant strain in the U.S., Topol, of
Scripps Research Translational Institute, said. But with the lack of sequencing being done in the U.S., some fear public-health officials might not even know if it happens. Some studies suggest that 60% of COVID cases being identified in London are B.1.1.7 variants.
Dr. Rachel West, an expert on emerging infectious diseases at Johns Hopkins, said the small number of cases discovered so far in the U.S. is likely due to little sequencing being done.
“It definitely doesn’t seem that there are that many cases right now but that’s also because we just aren’t sequencing enough,” she said.