Miami has options in potential trade of No. 3 selection
The Dolphins might be interested in Alabama’s Heisman Trophy winning receiver DeVonta Smith, but they also might explore trading down if other teams want to move up — and overpay — to choose a quarterback with the third overall pick in the NFL Draft.
Having the third overall pick in a draft with three highly regarded quarterbacks gives the Dolphins delicious options.
Either keep the pick and add an elite offensive talent (receivers DeVonta Smith or Ja’Marr Chase or left tackle Penei Sewell) or trade down to pick up more assets.
So what could Miami realistically get in such a trade-down? We’ll get to that in a minute.
First, here’s one dynamic that could potentially help the Dolphins in the draft: In recent days, Atlanta Falcons coach Arthur Blank wouldn’t rule out making a change at quarterback, depending on what the team’s new coach wants to do. Matt Ryan, a four-time Pro Bowler, will turn 36 in May.
“Matt’s been a franchise leader for us,” Blank said. “A great quarterback. One of the leading quarterbacks in the last 13 years in the NFL. So I hope he’s gonna be part of our plans going forward. But that will be a decision that I won’t make.”
If there’s any question about the Falcons possibly taking a quarterback at No. 4, that could be the impetus for a QB-needy team to try to jump the Falcons and attempt to obtain Miami’s pick at No. 3.
At least one of the top quarterbacks (Ohio State’s Justin Fields or BYU’s Zach Wilson) should be on the board at No. 3. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence almost assuredly will go first to Jacksonville.
So what could Miami get in a slight-trade down?
Let’s hypothetically say Philadelphia, which picks sixth, fell in love with Wilson or Fields (whichever is there at 3), decided he’s better than Jalen Hurts and disappointing Carson Wentz, and asked Miami about the third pick.
If that happens, there’s a real-life template already established for what the Dolphins should receive in return.
In 2018, the Jets picked sixth and craved quarterback Sam Darnold but knew he likely wouldn’t drop to sixth.
So they called the Colts and acquired that third overall pick for a bundle: the Jets’ first-round selection (6th), two secondround picks (37th and 49th), and a second-round selection in 2019.
That would be the exact scenario — jumping from sixth to third — that would be in play in this hypothetical.
But the Eagles have only one pick in the first, second and third rounds, none in the fourth and two in the fifth. So a trade with Miami couldn’t involve that exact compensation from the Darnold deal.
Keep in mind that Eagles
owner Jeffrey Lurie, who dismissed coach Doug Pederson this week, said Wentz is “very fixable” and said he fully expects him to “realize his potential,” although he didn’t say that would necessarily be for Philadelphia.
What if the Bengals, picking fifth, coveted Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell and approached the Dolphins about the third pick?
Keep in mind that in 2012, Minnesota traded the third pick to Cleveland for their first (4th), a fourth (118th), a fifth (139th), and a seventh-rounder (211th) that year. But that was jumping from fourth to third. Going fifth to third should command a secondround pick instead of a fourth.
And in 2017, San Francisco traded the second overall pick to Chicago in exchange for Chicago’s first-, third-, and fourth-round selections (3rd, 67th, and 111th) as well as a third-round selection in
2018. So in that deal, the Bears gave up a fortune to move up one spot for Mitch Trubisky.
Dropping from third to fifth could leave Miami with an opportunity to draft a top receiver at No. 5 — Smith or Chase.
What could the Dolphins get if the Carolina Panthers prefer Wilson to Teddy Bridegwater and want to move from 8 to 3?
As perspective, Pro Football Focus projected that if Carolina jumped four spots from 8 to 4, the Panthers could give the Falcons their picks at 8, 39 and 110, plus a 2022 third-rounder in exchange for the fourth and 214th overall picks.
And PFF projected that if New England jumped from 15 to 4, the Patriots could give the Falcons picks 15, 46, 77 and 97 for picks 4 and 178.
The Dolphins, of course, would be in position to get slightly more than Atlanta in those hypothetical Carolina/New
England scenarios by virtue of picking one spot ahead of the Falcons.
And one more scenario: What if Denver’s yet-to-behired new general manager decides he prefers Wilson or Fields to Broncos quarterback Drew Lock and wants to move up from 9 to 3?
Consider that in 2014, Cleveland traded the fourth pick to Buffalo in exchange for the Bills’ 2014 first round selection (9th) and their firstand fourth-round selections in 2015 (19th and 115th).
So that big a jump (9th to 3rd) presumably would net the Dolphins a 2022 firstrounder. But it likely would eliminate the chances of Miami landing Smith or Chase.
ESPN’s mock drafts have Smith off the board at 3 and Chase by 7.
Notably, ESPN’s Todd McShay has not only Smith, Lawrence, Wilson and Sewell going ahead of Chase, but also has Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons and Northwestern guard/tackle/center Rashawn Slater off the board in the top six, too. What’s more, McShay has Fields falling 15th to New England, though McShay later said he likely would go much higher.
If Miami traded down to Denver’s range at 9, options in that range would include Alabama receiver Jaylan Waddle, Miami Hurricanes defensive end Greg Rousseau, UF tight end Kyle Pitts (there would be overlap with Mike Gesicki) and Notre Dame inside linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. It’s difficult to envision Miami using another first-rounder on a cornerback (Alabama’s Patrick Surtain or Virginia Tech’s Caleb Farley) in such a scenario.
But if the Dolphins believe Smith — the dynamic Heisman Trophy winningreceiver — is someone they desperately need, then trading down at all would be risky.