UM’s defensive changes ultimately depend on players

Notes on University of Miami coach Manny Diaz’s decision to make some defensive staff changes while taking over defensive play-calling duties and retaining Blake Baker as defensive coordinator:

For perspective on how much UM’s defense has fallen off from Diaz’s final season as defensive coordinator (2018) to now, consider:

UM permitted 21.0 points per game in 2018, which was 28th in the country; the Canes allowed 26.0 per game this past season, which was 46th.

Miami had 31 takeaways in 13 games in 2018, which was third in college football and led all of Power 5. This past season, UM had just 16 takeaways in 11 games this season, which tied for 42nd.

UM went from allowing 362.8 yards per game in 2018, which was 36th, to 408.4 in 2020, which was 67th.

Expect UM to blitz more with Diaz taking over defensive calls on game day.

Per Pro Football Focus, UM blitzed 43.5 percent of the time in 2018 with Diaz as defensive coordinator, compared with 35.5 percent this past season with Baker making game-day calls. With UM losing its top two pass rushers to the NFL (Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche), the Canes likely would need to blitz more anyway in 2021.

Also expect UM to use more man coverage instead of zone; man coverage often is the preference of players. Miami played man 55.7 percent of the time in pass coverage in 2018 compared with 35.7 percent this past season.

Diaz’s coaching should make ● a difference — and the UNC debacle falls on players and coaches — but if you’re going to compare Miami’s defensive performance in 2018 to 2020, this is where you should start:

1) UM didn’t have a linebacker in 2020 who was close to the quality of Shaq Quarterman and Mike Pinckney. PFF rated UM’s linebackers among the worst in the country this past season.

2) Though the defensive end play was very good in both 2018

(Joe Jackson, Jon Garvin primarily) and 2020 (Phillips,

Roche primarily), UM didn’t have a defensive tackle in 2020 who made anything close to the impact that Gerald Willis made in 2018, including 18 tackles for loss.

3) UM went from having one of the best safeties in the country in Jaquan Johnson in 2018 to an underachieving group that missed too many tackles and had too many breakdowns in coverage. In fact, the Canes’ No. 2 safety in 2018, Sheldrick Redwine, was better than any safety Miami had last season. One UM coach raved about Gurvan Hall’s ceiling a year ago, but he hasn’t met expectations.

4) Trajan Bandy (three interceptions in 2018) was better than any cornerback on UM’s roster in 2020.

So perhaps Diaz’s increased involvement will make a difference. But the view here is UM’s defensive deterioration is more of a recruiting issue than a gameday coaching issue. That, too, falls on coaches.

Diaz’s increased role can only help, but the 2021 personnel concerns me. On paper, the Canes likely won’t be as good at defensive end (with Phillips and Roche moving to the NFL). They should be better at cornerback with Tyriq Stevenson coming in from Georgia as a likely starter.

Whether they’re better at defensive tackle, linebacker and safety hinges entirely on: 1) Whether Jarid-Harrison Hunte takes another big jump at tackle, whether Nesta Silvera can make a Willis-type rise as a senior and whether elite incoming freshman

Leonard Taylor can contribute immediately. (Taylor won’t be enrolling early.)

2) Whether the young linebackers — primarily Corey Flagg and Sam Brooks and to an extent Tirek Austin-Cave and

Avery Huff — improve significantly, because it would be unrealistic to expect anything much better from Zach McCloud and

Bradley Jennings Jr.

and 3) Whether the two elite safety prospects of the past two classes (Avantae Williams — who missed the season with an undisclosed injury — and Class of 2021 gem James Williams) become instant impact players and if talented Bubba Bolden becomes much more consistent.

Those are a lot of ifs. What we do know is cornerback looks to be in better shape with Stevenson, who had a 92.9 passer rating in his coverage area in his first two seasons in Georgia — not bad for a young player in America’s toughest conference. A nickel package of Stevenson, Te’Cory Couch and either Al Blades Jr. or DJ Ivey should be good enough.

This much is also clear: The young defensive ends — Jahfari Harvey, Chantz Williams and

Cameron Williams, in particular — and Tennessee transfer

DeAndre Johnson (4.5 sacks last season in eight games) must generate a pass rush, or Diaz is going to be forced to blitz even more than he would typically like.

New defensive backs coach

Travaris Robinson coached teams with great pass defenses at UF in 2013 and 2014 (17th and 7seventh nationally in passing yards allowed per game those two years) but mediocre pass defenses at South Carolina (69th, 65th, 97th in passing yards permitted per game over the past three years).

Not only will DeMarcus Van Dyke get a chance to coach his own position (as UM’s cornerbacks coach, replacing Mike Rumph), but he now will be able to travel to schools as a recruiter.

UM people said Van Dyke made a very positive impact as UM’s assistant director of recruiting the past two years despite NCAA rules that prohibit non-coaches from leaving campus for recruiting purposes.

CHATTER

I asked a longtime GM where ●

to draw the line with Houston if Miami makes an offer for quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Would you offer Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s picks at 3 and 18? In a heartbeat, the veteran executive said.

What if Houston wanted even more than that, such as the 36th pick or another first-rounder in 2022? “Would still do it,” he said.

NFL Draft analyst Matt Miller

said new Houston GM Nick Caserio was a fan of Tagovailoa’s at Alabama.

Two NBA executives said they expect Heat wing Duncan Robinson to command $15 million to $20 million annually in restricted free agency next summer.

The Heat can match any offer for Robinson and his 2021-22 cap hit for the Heat would be only $4.7 million regardless of his salary.

The Marlins have six players on Baseball America’s new top 100 prospect list: Sixto Sanchez (6); JJ Bleday (43), Max Meyer (44), Jazz Chisholm (77), Edward Cabrera (81) and Trevor Rogers (89).