Cats look like Cup contenders
Aleksander Barkov doesn’t like to get too excited when things are going well, but he couldn’t wipe a grin off his face after the Panthers’ latest victory Monday in Sunrise.
It wasn’t about the spectacular play he made to create a game-winning, short-handed goal in Florida’s 6-3 win against the Chicago Blackhawks. It wasn’t about his increasing consideration as a candidate for the Hart Memorial Trophy or Joel Quenneville’s position as front-runner for the Jack Adams Award. He summed it up in three words.
“We’ve been winning,” the star center said Monday, “so this is a lot of fun.”
“Obviously, the last couple of years we haven’t been having any success and people don’t really talk about us that much,” he added. “This year is a whole lot different. We’ve been winning games. We’ve been playing really well — really good hockey — and, as you can see, everyone’s having fun on the ice and that’s when everyone starts to notice you.”
The 2020-21 NHL season is halfway over for the Panthers, and no team in the league has been a bigger surprise. The Panthers (19-5-4) jumped into sole possession of first place in the Central Division with their win Monday at the BB&T Center and moved into a tie for the league lead in points.
Florida looks like a Stanley Cup contender, with one of the best offenses in the league, an emerging Hart Trophy hopeful and the best coach in the league, and it comes after years of irrelevance. The Panthers haven’t made the traditional 16-team Stanley
Cup playoffs since 2016, but are providing reasons to believe they can keep up their play in the second half of the season.
OFFENSE BETTER THAN EVER
Since the start of the 2018-19 NHL season, the Panthers have had one of the four most prolific offenses in hockey. With 590 goals in the last twoplus seasons, only the Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs and Washington Capitals have scored more than Florida. Go back to the start of the 2016-17 NHL season — when Barkov and left wing Jonathan Huberdeau broke out, solidifying Florida’s offensive-minded identity — and the Panthers rank seventh in the league in goals, and four of those six teams
ahead of them have played in the Stanley Cup Finals since then.
This is all to say it’s not a surprise to see Florida once again solidly among the NHL’s top offenses. But even by the Panthers’ lofty offensive standards, this group has stood out.
Florida is tied for second in the NHL with 3.5 goals per game and its 34.1 shots per game — also second most in the league — suggest it’s far more sustainable than a year ago, when the Panthers finished the regular season sixth in scoring, then crashed out of the qualifying round of the expanded postseason, scoring just seven goals in four games.
In fact, this offense may even be underproducing right now given how well it is playing. Florida is just a middling team in Corsi — an advanced statistic that combines shots on goal, missed shots on goal and opponents’ blocked shots in 5-on-5 action — but the Panthers rank second in the league in expected goals in 5-on-5, while only actually having the seventh-most 5-on-5 goals. It’s a sharp shift from last season, whenthey had the fifth-most 5-on-5 goals despite ranking just 24th in expected goals.
Like Corsi, expected goals are a popular advanced stat, which is “based on where the shots are coming from, compared to the league-wide shooting percentage from that shot location,” according to Hockey-Reference.com. Collectively, they paint a promising picture for this offense.
“We’re just a different team this year,” defenseman MacKenzie Weegar said Monday. “The league’s starting to notice that, and we deserve all the credit that we’re getting right now.”
BARKOV HAS PLENTY OF HELP
Barkov is in the middle of Florida’s growth. The
25-year-old is clearly the Panthers’ most valuable player, and he’s playing more aggressively than ever. His total shots are up from 4.0 per game last year to 5.3 this season, his shots on goal are up from 2.6 to 3.6 and his Corsi for — which measures the team’s total chances when he’s on the ice — is up from 15.5 to 16.6.
Huberdeau and right wing Patric Horqvist are also producing at star-type levels, with 10-plus goals and 12-plus assists, and Florida is as deep as it has been in years. The Panthers’ fourth line has a
62.1 Corsi for percentage and their third line, which includes top rookie Eetu Luostarinen at center, is holding its own at 48.9 percent.
Meanwhile, the Panthers’ top two lines are solidly winning their minutes, and Florida is outscoring opponents 18-2 when Barkov, Huberdeau and Hornqvist all play together — typically as the top power-play grouping.
“It seems like everybody across the board is adding to the mix,” Quenneville said Saturday,
“and we’ve been pretty consistent.”
DEFENSE EVEN MORE IMPROVED
The Panthers’ grand plans were never supposed to be just about Barkov and Huberdeau, and for a time they weren’t. Aaron Ekblad, the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NHL Draft, was drafted the highest of the three and was the first of the trio to make an All-Star Game, going in 2015 and 2016.
The 25-year-old hasn’t been back since, although his drought probably would have ended had there been a game this year. He has always been Florida’s top defenseman and a productive statistical player, and now he’s doing it for a competent defense.
Last year, the Panthers allowed 3.25 goals per
game — tied for third most in the NHL. This year, Florida is allowing the 11th fewest. Solidly average is more than enough, considering where this team has been the last few years.
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, the Panthers have allowed the fifth-most goals in the league. Stretch it back to 2015-16 and they have still allowed the 10th most.
While Florida is allowing about as many shots as it did last year, the quality of shots has plummeted.
Last year, the Panthers gave up the fourth-most high-danger chances in the league. This year, they’re giving up the seventh fewest. Florida’s expected goals against is the sixth-best mark in the league. The Panthers are giving up basically nothing in front of the net or anywhere in the slot. The vast majority of shots they’re allowing are coming from far and outside, even on the penalty kill.
So much still hinges on Sergei Bobrovsky. The $10 million-a-year goaltender still ranks only 32nd in the league with a .905 save percentage, but he’s 7-0-1 with a .919 save percentage and 2.75 goals against in his past eight starts.
Right now, opponents are scoring on 18.9 percent of those high-danger chances — the most in the league. Last year, they scored on 11.6 percent of them. There’s still another level for this defense to get to and Bobrovsky is trying to take them there.
“He’s coming off a great trip and a good start to this homestand,” Quenneville said. “He is growing in his composure in the net and it feels good to be standing behind the bench or watching him play in front of him as players. We all like the progress.”
The first 30 hours of free agency brought Miami a backup quarterback (Jacoby Brissett), backup running back (Malcolm Brown) and a backup tight end
(Cethan Carter) but no new starter.
But at least the Dolphins have found a solid inside linebacker — Benardrick McKinney —to pair with Jerome Baker.
So what are the Dolphins getting in McKinney, who was acquired from Houston for
Shaq Lawson on Sunday?
Don’t put much stock in 2020 because he played in only four games (37 tackles) before a season-ending shoulder injury.
But this is notable: Entering the 2020 season, Pro Football Focus rated McKinney the 14thbest linebacker in football.
Between 2015 and 2019, McKinney’s run defense grade, via PFF, ranked fifth among the 66 linebackers with 2,000 or more defensive snaps.
“McKinney is a big, tough inside backer with some rush and he fits the mold of the type of big-body bangers that New
England had when [Brian]
Flores was there,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein said this week.
More good news: McKinney was a second-team All Pro in 2016 and made the Pro Bowl in 2018. He was 30th and 38th in the league in tackles in 2018 and 2019.
Here’s the bad news: In his career, McKinney has allowed 156 of 195 passes thrown in his coverage area (80 percent completion rate) to be caught for 1,532 yards, equating to a 9.8 average per catch.
In 2019, he permitted 34 of 39 passes to be caught for 317 yards, a 9.3 average. Not good. Last season, it was 5 for 9 for
53.
McKinney also had only 2.5 sacks in his past 34 games and 11.5 in his six-year career, but has decent quarterback pressure numbers.
The Dolphins are trying to rework McKinney’s contract. He’s due $7.75 million this year, $9.5 million in 2022, and $10.25 million in 2023.
With McKinney two years older than the 26-year-old Lawson, Overthecap’s Jason Fitzgerald pointed out that “trading younger for a little bit older, especially off injury, is always risky. I’d guess part of the thought process may be that a potential Pro Bowl linebacker is better than a second-tier edge.”
McKinney will team with Baker, who joined Tampa Pro
Bowler Devin White as the NFL’s only players with at least 100 tackles and at least five sacks in 2020. Baker had 112 and seven.
An agent who spoke to the Dolphins said Miami conveyed it’s looking for good values at positions of need, because of limited cap space.
With cap space precious, it’s surprising that the Dolphins gave three years and $8.2 million (with $2.7 million guaranteed) to Carter. Even more surprising: They tendered offensive lineman Adam Pankey at $2.2 million, dropping their cap space below $30 million. Signing a draft class will cost close to $12 million.
The Dolphins haven’t inquired about former FIU and Colts free agent receiver T.Y. Hilton, instead preferring younger players. He will be 32 in November. … Miami called former Bengals first-round receiver John Ross, but he agreed to terms with the Giants.
One reason the Dolphins felt comfortable moving on from Kyle Van Noy and Lawson is an eagerness to increase outside linebacker Andrew
Van Ginkel’s role.
PFF rated Van Ginkel 12th of 108 qualifying edge players and filled the stats column with 48 tackles, 5.5 sacks, seven tackles for loss, one fumble recovery (for a touchdown), two forced fumbles and 19 quarterback pressures. And he did it in 479 snaps, compared with 571 for Lawson and 811 for Van Noy.
But UM will need to add an edge player in the first two days of the draft. At least one among UM’s Jaelan Phillips and Greg Rousseau should be available with Miami’s pick at No. 18; Michigan’s Kwity Paye and Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari also would be options. And another free agent outside linebacker will be added.
CHATTER
One of the mild disappointments of Tyler Herro’s second season has been the dip in his three-point percentage, from 38.9 as a rookie to 34.0. That ranks 49th of 59 shooting guards, but ahead of two players often linked to the Heat — Bradley Beal (33.6) and Victor Oladipo (32.2).
“I’ve been in and out of the lineup for the whole year,” said Herro, who has missed seven games with a neck injury, three with a hip injury and one because of COVID protocols. “People know what I’m capable of. So once I’m in rhythm and playing how I can play, people know what I can do.”
Though a new Marlins TV deal hasn’t yet been finalized, there is a binding agreement and the opening weekend series against Tampa Bay will be televised . ... Fox Sports Florida and Fox Sports Sun will becomes
Bally Sports Florida and Bally Sports Sun around March 31, with new music and graphics on all Heat, Marlins and Panthers cablecasts.
The surprise of Marlins camp? Right-handed reliever Anthony Bender, who has never pitched above Double A. Entering Tuesday night, he had struck out six and hadn’t allowed a run, hit or walk in 31⁄3 innings this spring.
“His stuff has been as good as anyone in camp,” manager Don Mattingly said. “Power stuff. You’re like, ‘How does anyone let this get away?’ One good thing with Anthony is we know he will be with us no matter what. If he doesn’t break [camp] with us, we’re going to see this guy.”
Bender was a very early target of the Marlins in minor league free agency this past offseason. He kept sharp last season playing for the Milwaukee Milkmen in an independent league.
UM offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee split carries among Cam’Ron Harris, Jaylon Knighton and Don Chaney last season, but now is hoping one clear-cut lead back emerges who can carry it “20plus times a game,” adding:
“We have to be better in the run game. It’s kind of hard when you play three backs."
A six-pack of Hurricanes notes on Day 2 of spring practice Tuesday:
Two defensive backs considered among the best 40 players in their recruiting classes participated in their first two UM practices this week, and the early returns are encouraging.
Tyrique Stevenson, Rivals’ No. 35 overall player in the 2019 class, should raise the quality of the Canes’ cornerback room after transferring from Georgia.
And safety Avantae Williams, Rivals’ No. 40 overall player in the 2020 class, could eventually push veterans Bubba Bolden, Gurvan Hall and
Amari Carter after missing last season with a chronic footballrelated medical condition.
“With Avantae, you think about him being two practices into his college career,” coach
Manny Diaz said Tuesday. “When you asked the question, I thought about Jaelan Phillips this week a year ago, where we barely saw anything for four days and then had the season he had. I’m not saying Avantae is going to do the same thing that Jaelan did.
“It’s really, really early for Avantae. But certainly you see he plays 100 miles an hour. The pedal, when Avantae is on the field, is pushed down through the floorboard and that’s encouraging. He may not always be going in the right direction at full speed, but that’s why they call us coach and we’ll get him turned the right way. It’s fun to see him out there and I know he’s anticipating putting shoulder pads on on Thursday.”
As for Stevenson, he will be competing with Al Blades (not participating fully in spring ball as he works his way back from a COVID-related cardiac issue), Te’Cory Couch and DJ Ivey for two starting jobs. Stevenson will assuredly be in the rotation, and is a favorite to start.
Diaz sized up Stevenson’s skill set this way: “Long body, big strong individual. Good movement skills. With him, it was the competitive excellence. When you talk about going back to when he was in high school, we had 7-on-7 camps and the guy was the best player on the field and it was obvious. And he knows it. He’s got great self confidence.
“What’s been fun for me to watch in the first couple of days is him teaching some of the younger corners. That’s being a team guy. That’s been really encouraging to see.”
Bolden said Stevenson is a “great player, very footballminded, very football smart. Obviously, Georgia’s a big-time school. He knows a lot. Him coming here, it just gives extra depth, extra veteran experience, especially because he’s played against Alabama (UM’s opener Sept. 4 in Atlanta).
Receiver update: Jeremiah Payton is missing the start of spring practice with an undisclosed injury he sustained last season. Diaz said he hopes he can return later in spring ball, which concludes with the April 17 spring game . ...
Diaz, asked about players who are impressing, mentioned receiver Keyshawn Smith, who flashed as a freshman last season.
“First year on campus you’re learning what to do and the consistency of doing it over and over,” Diaz said. “He can run really fast and he has a knack of coming up with the football when it’s thrown to him. He made a really nice play down the field today.
“In the bowl game, he had a difficult catch. It was out of bounds. He’s got self-confidence in him; when the ball is in the air, it’s his.”
The feedback has been very positive about Diaz taking over defensive coordinator duties.
“He’s definitely more hands on,” linebacker Corey Flagg said. “He’s very serious about what he wants at practice. Great coach, he gives it to you black and white. He’s doing an incredible job being a head coach and defensive coordinator. He stands in the middle of the field. It’s playing out really good.”
Diaz said his increased involvement in the defense “feels fun. How you call the plays doesn’t have as much to do as executing the plays. It’s different in practice being in a different role. There’s a naturalness to it because I’ve done it before.”
Diaz, who made multiple defensive coaching changes on his staff, noted the “high energy” of those new assistants and said there’s a “renewed spirit on the defensive side of the ball.”
Several players have mentioned how they’ve picked the brain of Bob Shoop, who has been a defensive coordinator at nine college programs and is now working as an analyst for Diaz.
“Coach Shoop has given me his perspective on the game, little keys,” Flagg said. “He has been a great addition to the staff.”
A testament to the character of Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker and former UM star Shaq Quarterman: Even though he never played with Flagg, Quarterman texted Flagg recently just to check in on him and tell him to keep working. “Guys who set the foundation at the U are hands on a lot,” Flagg said.
Flagg is competing with Bradley Jennings Jr. for the middle linebacker job. Flagg has been boxing on weekends to stay in shape and has lowered his body fat from 22 percent to 13 percent.
Quick stuff: Others who have impressed Diaz: Flagg “has had two really good first days, redefined his body. Jahfari Harvey and Chantz Williams and Cam Williams [have flashed] at defensive end.”...
Harvey is the front-runner to start at one defensive end spot, with Tennessee transfer Deandre Johnson the frontrunner at the other spot.