Forecasts show another ‘well above average’ hurricane season likely in ’21

Bellwether early forecasts show Florida is likely in for another active hurricane season, but probably not as dramatic as last year.

The 2020 hurricane season, in keeping with the nightmare year of coronavirus, saw an alltime record number of named storms: 30.

In 2021, a forecast from Colorado State University suggests 17 named storms could form, with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or higher. CSU Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach called it another “well-aboveaverage” season.

The definition of an average hurricane season is set to change this year since NOAA recalculates its 30-year average every decade. The agency has yet to release its new standard, but research from University of Miami’s Brian McNoldy suggests that the 1991-2020 average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes andthree major hurricanes, an uptick from the previous average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The CSU forecast is based on the 1981 to 2010 average but will update accordingly when NOAA sets its new standard.

Accuweather, a forprofit weather service, released similar predictions to CSU earlier this week. The service calls for 16 to 20 named storms this season and seven to 10 hurricanes (of which three to five are major).

Hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30, with a peak in August and September.

These early season predictions are the scientific community’s first stab at forecasting what the hurricane season could hold, and they generally get more accurate as they get updated later down the line. NOAA’s first official prediction isn’t due until later in May.

One of the hardest things to predict this early is which of a pair of weather patterns will appear, or if neither will.

El Niño is usually associated with a warmer patch of water in the Pacific Ocean that can slow down hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and its opposite, a La Niña, is marked by that same patch of water running colder than normal, which can whip up more hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

Last year a La Niña contributed to the super active season, and current predictions from global models suggest a weaker La Niña with water about a degree or two Fahrenheit above normal may remain for this season.

That may not seem like much, but Klotzbach said even a single degree “can make a difference in how the atmosphere responds, and how the atmosphere responds is critical.”

NOAA’s latest forecast suggests either a weaker La Niña or the presence of neither weather pattern for this hurricane season.

“The odds of El Niño for the 2021 hurricane season are fairly low, but it’s something we will monitor closely in the days to come,” Klotzbach said.

While forecasters sometimes predict how many storms will make landfall in a year, it’s challenging to predict where exactly they will hit this far out. That’s because the forces that steer a storm in a certain direction are more related to day-to-day weather changes, like wind speed and direction, than the global climate patterns that affect how likely it is for a storm to form in certain parts of the world.

However, “in general more active seasons do have more land-falling storms,” Klotzbach said.

Accuweather calls for three to five direct U.S. impacts this season and CSU suggests there’s a 69% chance of at least one major hurricane hitting the U.S. this year and a 58% likelihood of a major hurricane striking the Caribbean.

For Florida more specifically, CSU predicted that the Sunshine State has a 75% chance of seeing at least one hurricane passing within 50 miles of the state this year, up from an average annual chance of 58% due to the aboveaverage nature of the season.