Dolphins get right in London vs. lowly Jags, plus two major upsets
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 6 PICKS DOLPHINS THIS WEEK DOLPHINS (1-4) VS. JAGUARS (0-5)
Line: MIA by 3.
Cote’s pick: MIA 27-21. TV: 9:30 a.m., CBS. Poor England. First Brexit. Now this. The NFL sends over two teams that are a combined 1-9 this season and together have lost 24 games in row, with Jacksonville’s streak at 20 and Miami having lost its past four. The upside: Barring the 0.3 percent possibility of a tie, somebody gotta win. The other upside, more seriously: Fans at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for this morning kickoff in the
East will see the expected/ hoped-for return from injury of Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and his duel with No. 1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence. Rookie QBs are on an 0-6 run starting a game in London. Can T-Law end that slump? (Quick aside: Urban Meyer is still Jax’s coach despite that viral barroom video. Do you think Urban sent a thankyou note to Jon Gruden for his email scandal diverting attention?).
Dolphins have been awful lately, so I’d say a Jags win would not surprise. The law of averages alone will kick in at some point and gift Jacksonville its first win since Sept. 13, 2020. The odds of that increase if Miami is missing CB Xavien Howard and/or WR DeVante Parker, both of whom missed practice with injuries Wednesday. This is a plainly fetid matchup. The Dolphins have done little to inspire faith, but give them the edge here on an expected spark from Tagovailoa, the notion they can’t possibly be any worse than lately, and, mostly, that they’re playing the Jaguars.
GAME OF THE WEEK CARDINALS (5-0) AT BROWNS (3-2)
Line: CLE by 3.
Cote’s pick: CLE 27-23. TV: 4:05 p.m., Fox.
The Dolphins’ 1972 Perfectos are on high alert. The champagne is chilled. The annual toast when the NFL’s last unbeaten team loses is at hand. The Cardinals haven’t been 5-0 since 1974, when still in St. Louis. And they won’t get to 6-0. Game features a duel between Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, former Oklahoma teammates and No. 1 overall draft picks. Murray should win that stats battle. But Browns will take the game because Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and the NFL’s No. 1 running game will capitalize on a weak Zona run D giving up the fifth-most ground yards in the league. One key to the game that was uncertain when we made this pick on Thursday afternoon: Whether Cleveland would have pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney back from injury, a big factor. Our confidence in this pick will grow if Clowney is out there bothering Murray on Sunday.
UPSET OF THE WEEK COWBOYS (4-1) AT PATRIOTS (2-3)
Line: DAL by 3 1⁄2.
Cote’s pick: NE 24-23.
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. “AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Bill Belichaaawwwk!” New England is 0-3 at home. It has never been 0-4 under Bill Belichaaawwwk I mean
Belichick. Dallas’ offense has been almost unstoppable the past three weeks, but the Patriots defense is sneaky good, stout versus both pass (especially) and run. Boys have lost past five meetings with Pats, and New England is on a 13-2 run against the spread as a home underdog. It all adds up to liking the Patriots getting more than a field goal at one, and outright with a kind bounce or two. “Well, we’re 4-1 straight-up on Upset of the Week picks,” notes U-Bird. “Time for some magic in Foxborough. Foxboraawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 6
Packers (4-1, -4 1⁄2)
over @Bears (3-2),
23-20: It’s the 203rd meeting in NFL’s oldest rivalry, and hard to say who’s got home-field edge considering Packers have won 10 of past 11 trips to Soldier Field. Bears not getting much offense yet from Justin Fields, but like Chitown defense to keep it inside bet line presuming Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks (both questionable) play as expected.
@Lions (0-5, +3 1⁄2)
over Bengals (3-2),
27-24: Upset! Detroit coach Dan Campbell has gone from biting kneecaps off to fighting tears after the latest defeat. But after three close L’s, two of them two-point heartbreakers, winless Dan is due some luck and gets it here. Cincy is 2-17-1 in its past 20 road games. Otherwise, this upset pick is pure hunch, all gut feel.
@Colts (1-4, -9 1⁄2) over Texans (1-4), 24-16: Both teams blew big leads in losing last week, but Indy is the 1-4 team here better than its record, including one-score losses to the 4-1 Rams and Ravens. Colts also on a 5-1 run in this division series. Still, point spread feels fat.
Rams (4-1, -10) over @Giants (1-4), 34-17: NYG somehow has won seven of past nine meetings with Rams, but Biggies have a ton of injuries led by RB Saquon Barkley and WR Kenny Golladay both doubtful to play. With added rest/prep time after playing last Thursday, L.A. and Matthew Stafford should roll.
Chiefs (2-3, -6 1⁄2) over @Washington (2-3), 36-23: The only team giving up more points than Washington’s hugely disappointing defense? Kansas City. Hence the over/ under of 55 1⁄2 points. Chiefs are missing RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire to injury and WR Tyreek Hill is iffy, but still cannot fathom Patrick Mahomes not outscoring Taylor Heinicke. KC still has third-best Super Bowl odds after Bucs and Bills, and will reward the faith here.
@Panthers (3-2, +1) over Vikings (2-3),
24-20: Call it a miniupset, albeit with the home team plus one. Carolina expects to have RB Christian McCaffrey back from a hamstring — that’s big; Cats are 0-2 without him — and should bounce back
from consecutive onescore losses. Balancing McCaffrey’s return, Panthers’ defense is top three in league in fewest points and yards allowed.
@Ravens (4-1, -2 ⁄ )
1
2
over Chargers (4-1), 30-27: There was a strong push within the Game of the Week committee to anoint this battle of division leaders over Cardinals-Browns. I mean, Justin Herbert vs. Lamar Jackson is about as electric a young QB duel as it gets. Herbert should feast on a shaky Baltimore pass D, but Jackson and that
Crows ground game should do the same against an LAC run defense ranked last in the NFL. Like this as a strong venue call. BAL has won five straight at home, and, after winning last Monday, aims to be the 10th team in a row to win the week after an MNF triumph.
@Broncos (3-2, -3 1⁄2)
over Raiders (3-2), 19-13: The question this result might answer: How will the Raiders respond to turmoil? To coach Jon Gruden canceling himself — forced to resign over his racist/misogynist/homophobic email trail? It overshadows this matchup of division rivals each coming off consecutive losses. Vegas scandal aside, Denver is home and the better squad, especially defensively.
@Steelers (2-3, -5) over Seahawks (2-3), 23-20: Two huge factors steer this Sunday night pick: 1). Obviously, losing Russell Wilson to a finger injury is a huge blow. Someone else will start at QB for Seattle for the first time since 2012, and it will be journeyman Geno Smith, in his first start since ‘17. That alone swung this point spread from Hawks as a likely small road favorite. And
2). The Steelers’ really good rookie RB, Najee Harris, figures for a big night in facing the NFL’s second-worst run defense. Still, Smith and Seattle, with extra time after playing last Thursday, should keep it inside the bet line.
Bills (4-1, -5 1⁄2) over @Titans (3-2), 37-20: Monday night gets a battle of division leaders, and Buffalo gets the primetime stage to preen, one week after it earned the right by soundly beating Kansas City in AFC Championship Game rematch. I would factor a letdown as a possibility, except, just last season, Tennessee handled Josh Allen and humbled Buffalo 42-16. Think the Bills remember that? Buffs run-stopping will be up to the Derrick Henry challenge, and Titans’ D will be no match for a Bills’ O that has scored 35-plus four straight games.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday] .
Bye weeks:
Falcons (2-3; next @Dolphins):
Miami’s next foe beat Jets last week and has won two of past three, the loss by four points. Matt Ryan keeps ‘em in games.
49ers (2-3; next vs. Colts): San Fran has lost three straight, but team hopes QB Jimmy Garoppolo will return from his calf injury to face Indy after bye.
Jets (1-4; next @Patriots): NYJ has totaled only 40 points in its four losses, and rookie Zach Wilson has lowest passer rating (62.9) in league.
Saints (3-2; next @Seahawks): N’Awlins coming off win over Washington and catch a break after bye with Seattle minus injured Russell Wilson.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
We nailed the Bills’ upset win at Kansas City last week, but not much else went right where the bread is buttered -- against the spread. There were six games where we had the winner outright but were on the wrong side of the bet-line. Not good. Also saw our perfect season on Upset of the Week picks end, although we salvaged an ATS tie when Pack’s 3-point win over Bengals was the first betting push of the season. Time to get on the good foot and start slaying the evil point spread again! [Note: Thursday night pick was Buccaneers (-7) over @Eagles, 24-20.].
Week 5: 11-5, .688 overall; 5-10-1, .333 vs. spread.
Season: 51-29, .638 overall; 37-42-1, .469 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.