Scary road matchup for Dolphins; Lions finally roar
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 8 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK DOLPHINS (1-6) AT BILLS (4-2)
Line: BUF by 13 1⁄2.
Cote’s pick: BUF, 34-19.
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
There is little reason to believe Miami’s flight home Sunday evening will be anything but a somber wake following a seventh straight defeat. Games on Halloween don’t get much scarier. A few reasons: The Dolphins are coming off a heart-crushing last-second loss to Atlanta. The Bills are coming off a bye. Miami has endured a week of intensified Deshaun Watson trade reports that left poor Tua Tagovailoa, when asked if he felt wanted by the Fins, saying, “I don’t not feel wanted.” Buffalo won these AFC East rivals’ first meeting 35-0, a sixth consecutive Bills win over Miami. Buffalo is second in the NFL in scoring and tied for first in fewest points allowed. Miami ranks 29th in scoring and 31st on defense. Buffalo is on a 9-1 run at home. And Josh Allen has 19 touchdown passes in seven career starts vs. Fins. Need I go on? Honestly, the point spread is big but seems too small. Now, the ways Miami can win, or at least stay close (this won’t take long): Allen and Buffalo just have an off game. The Dolphins pack last year’s defense for the trip. And Tua plays as well as he has the past two weeks (minus the picks). Maybe the Dolphins will start surprising me and showing some life. Then again, I’ve been thinking that the past two months.
GAME OF THE WEEK BUCCANEERS (6-1) AT SAINTS (4-2)
Line: TBby5 1⁄2.
Cote’s pick: TB, 27-23.
TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.
OK, sure, the real Game of the Week was Thursday’s PackersCardinals duel. Fine. But we’re legally bound to have one here, so what better than champion Tampa, off four wins in a row, visiting a Saints squad that has won two in a row and given the Bucs fits lately? I mean, any possibility of a Tom Brady loss is a good thing, right? Prior to Tampa’s 30-20 playoff win last season, N’Awlins had won five in a row in this division rivalry — including two wins over Brady by a combined 72-26 last year. Saints are 15-5 in past 20 games and on a 7-3 run at home, and reacquiring RB Mark Ingram this week was smart. I can’t not trust Brady and that big offense to find a way to win, but watch the Fleur de Lis prove the bet line a bit too big.
UPSET OF THE WEEK EAGLES (2-5) AT LIONS (0-7)
Line: PHI by 3 1⁄2.
Cote’s pick: DET, 27-23.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” shout-croons the Upset Bird. “Finally! Detraaawwwk!” After seven consecutive losses for the NFL’s last winless team, coach Dan (Man) Campbell finally gets to bite somebody’s kneecap off. I’m not pretending Detroit isn’t a bad team. I’m saying Detroit is due some luck. A bounce. Lions have lost by two points to the Ravens and Vikings. Played the Rams tough last week. There is within this group the capability to coalesce and beat a subpar Philly limping on the flight off two straight losses. It isn’t so much a strong hunch as a persisting one.
“Now all we need is a decent game from Jared Goff,” notes U-Bird.
“Uh-oh. Gaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 8:
@Falcons (3-3, -3) over Panthers (3-4), 24-17: Birds have won past two and three of four while Cats reel with four straight losses. More pertinently, Atlanta has won (and covered) six games in a row in this AFC South scrum. Did I mention that Matt Ryan is waayy better than a struggling Sam Darnold sans Christian McCaffrey?
49ers (2-4, -3 1⁄2) over @Bears (3-4), 19-17: Six combined losses here in a row and two low-watt offenses, with SF’s Jimmy Garoppolo bad in his return from injury last week and Bears rookie Justin Fields really struggling. Chitown may be missing coach Matt Nagy to COVID protocol. More important, Bears will likely be without top defender Khalil Mack. Still saddling up home dogs with that extra half-point.
@Browns (4-3, -3 1⁄2) over Steelers (3-3), 23-20: Game of the Week committee gave this one a fleeting glance. Both rivals should be rested, with Browns having played last Thursday and Steelers off a bye. Baker Mayfield may be out again, but Case Keenum is a decent backup and Earthtones expect RB Nick Chubb back. With the lean to Mayfield not playing, like Pitt to cover.
Titans (5-2, +1 1⁄2) over @Colts (3-4), 30-23: AFC
South rivals have won five in a row between them, with Tennessee especially impressive in beating both Bills and Chiefs. Titans handled Colts 25-16 in Week 3, but these two have split 5-5 over past 10 meetings. If Titans bring the same defensive intensity that bothered and beat Patrick Mahomes, Carson
Wentz will struggle. Hardly feels like one, but: Upset!
Bengals (5-2, -10 1⁄2) over @Jets (1-5), 37-6: NYJ’s only remote chance here is a mental collapse by Cincy — a major letdown performance after last week’s huge statement-rout of Baltimore. But even that may not be enough, especially with Planes missing QB Zach Wilson and starting Mike White, a 2018 fifth-round pick who’d not thrown a pro pass until last week. Oh, and ask yourself:
How much fun will Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have against a Jets D that just got strafed for 54 points by Mac Jones and
Pats?
Rams (6-1, -14 1⁄2) @over Texans (1-6), 28-16: Houston’s six straight losses have included the past two by a combined 62-8 score. Matthew Stafford-toCooper Kupp will go wild in what figures as a rout. But! Texans QB Tyrod Taylor might start (or at least be ready to come in) for first time since Week 2, which gives HOU a shot at covering. Texans scored 58 in two games Taylor started; they’ve scored 39 in five games since. I will ride the Taylor factor and chance a big home dog cover.
@Chargers (4-2, -5) over Patriots (3-4), 27-23: The Upset Bird is circling this game like a vulture over carrion. Why? Pats have beaten Bolts six times in a row, including 45-0 last year, with Bill Belichick’s D limiting Justin Herbert to 49 percent accuracy and 3.9 yards per attempt with two picks. Like Chargers this time, coming off a bye, but lean to pesky Pats with the points.
@Seahawks (2-5, -3) over Jaguars (1-5), 24-17: With Jax off a bye and Hawks off a Monday night game, visitors have a prep/rest edge here. Despite that we see Seattle (0-3 at home) finally rewarding its “12th Man” fans — and avoiding its first four-game losing streak since 2009. The downturn from injured Russell Wilson has been extreme, but Geno Smith does enough here to cover a small number.
@Broncos (3-4, -3) over Washington (2-5), 27-16: A pair of slumping teams with seven consecutive losses between ‘em, and two meek offenses. The edge here is on defense. Denver’s is pretty good. Washington’s gives up the most points in the league. Broncos also enjoy home field and rest after playing last Thursday. The only concern here is Teddy Bridgewater (five picks in past three games) being stupid-sloppy again.
Cowboys (5-1, -1 1⁄2) over @Vikings (3-3), 37-31: Sunday night stage gets a near-pick ‘em game and an anticipated airshow shootout between Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. Our pick here assumes Prescott (calf strain) will be good to go as expected, with both teams coming off a bye. The Dak Attack has been all but unstoppable this season. And Cousins could roll a 300 against a 28th-ranked Boys pass D. To Jerry Jones’ chagrin Dallas is 1-7 in its past eight prime-time bows, but says here that’s a trend about to end.
@Chiefs (3-4, -10) over Giants (2-5), 34-21: The Monday night boothers will be treating this like a nationally televised autopsy: What is wrong with Kansas City!? Has the league solved Patrick Mahomes!? He has nine interceptions. If he has a couple more, NYG maybe has a shot. But with Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golloday iffy again, it will be tough for Daniel Jones to outscore KC. So make it a ninth straight primetime loss for Biggies.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of midafternoon Thursday] .
Bye weeks:
Raiders (5-2; next @Giants): Jon Gruden? Who? Las Vegas and hot Derek Carr are sailing at 5-2 and atop AFC West, riding a favorable stretch of schedule that continues next week at NYG.
Ravens (5-2; next vs. Vikings): Crows still a strong contender in AFC North, although last week’s spanking by divisionmate Cincinnati was humbling and a statement game for Bengals.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Our glass was half full last week. The empty half: That 6-7 mark straight-up was one of the very few outright losing weeks we’ve had in 31 years doing NFL picks in the Miami Herald. And it left us under the Mendoza line for the season at a cringe-worthy
.598. The full half: We were a nifty 8-4-1 against the spread. (Browns’ 3-point win pushed for the tie). Four games were four straight-up losses but were wins for us against the spread with covers by the Dolphins, Titans, Colts and Seahawks. Our season results thus far are way below standard, but we’re betting on ourselves. Now watch us rise like the sun!
[Note: Thursday night pick was @Cardinals (-6
over Packers, 27-23.].
Week 7: 6-7, .462 overall; 8-4-1, .667 vs. spread.
Season: 64-43, .598 overall; 50-55-2, .477 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
Greg Cote: 305-376-3492, @gregcote