Japan’s ruling coalition poised to keep power despite election losses
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling party may be on track for its worst election result in 12 years, but is expected to stay in power with help from its junior coalition partner, according to exit polling by broadcaster NHK from Sunday’s election.
The LDP alone is set to win 212-253 seats in the 465-seat body after the vote, the public broadcaster said, compared with 276 seats when parliament was dissolved in October. While the LDP’s singlehanded majority remains in the balance, Komeito was on track to stay at around the 29 seats it held when parliament was dissolved.
Polling by the Asahi and Yomiuri newspapers indicated the LDP was likely to keep its solo majority, which it has held for nine years.
Final results may not be available until Monday morning. Any major loss of seats would be a blow to Kishida, who took office this month and tried to win over voters with pledges to raise incomes, narrow disparities in society, and provide a massive stimulus package to help a COVIDbattered economy.
The coalition must also defend its majority in the upper house in an election next year.
“If the LDP loses its single-party majority, Kishida’s power will be weakened and that could present difficulties in managing policy,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, who added that could lead to stocks falling at the start of trading.
A weaker grip could also increase the chances Kishida might be dispatched through the “revolving door” of Japanese politics that claimed six premiers between 2007-12. His immediate predecessor, Yoshihide Suga, lasted only a year. In a potential blow to Kishida, his party No. 2 — Secretary General Akira Amari — was in danger of losing his seat, NHK reported.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan allied itself with smaller parties to field a unified candidate in many constituencies, but it was unclear whether this strategy had enabled it to increase its seat numbers substantially.
One of the biggest winners in the election may be the conservative-leaning opposition party, Ishin, which is set to more than triple its seat numbers and may become the thirdlargest party in parliament,
NHK said.
The ruling coalition will have to work on helping an economy that likely shrank over the summer due to a Covid surge and supply bottlenecks, according to estimates by several economists. Any setback at the polls could put pressure on the government, when the new parliament is expected to convene in November, to compile a bigger stimulus package to support growth. Kishida has pledged to draw up measures worth tens of trillions of yen soon after the vote.
The LDP has ruled Japan for all of four of the last 66 years. It has been in an alliance with Komeito for most of the time since
1999 and they suffered their greatest defeat in 2009 when they lost control of government.