Dolphins stink less than Texans (right?), plus 2 upsets
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 9 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK TEXANS (1-7) at DOLPHINS (1-7)
Line: MIA by 6 1⁄2.
Cote’s pick: MIA, 30-20.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
Welcome to the Deshaun Watson Bowl, where the quarterback who hasn’t played all season has somehow managed to unfortunately dominate the narrative around both of these teams. But enough about Watson (for now, at least). The Dolphins stink less than the Texans do. Miami’s offense is really bad, but Houston’s is worse. The Fins’ defense is less-stinky more often than the Texans’. So Miami, at home, is the obvious pick here. A major warning, though! Houston QB Tyrod Taylor, out since Week 2 with a hamstring, is finally back and will start — giving the Texans a much better upset shot than they would have had with rookie Davis Mills. The 2021 Dolphins are not good enough to be overconfident against anybody with the possible exception of FIU, and that includes the Taylor-led Texans. I still like Miami, because Tua Tagovailoa-to-DeVante Parker et al. have a chance to light up Houston for 30. And maybe the good Dolphins will show up on D as they occasionally do? If not — if Miami loses — well, the whole franchise will disappear into a giant sinkhole and never be heard from again.
GAME OF THE WEEK PACKERS (7-1) at CHIEFS (4-4)
Line:
Cote’s pick:
TV:
KCby7 1⁄2.
KC, 27-23.
4:25 p.m., Fox.
It was the Game of the Week mainly for the second duel between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Oops. Now Rodgers is out after testing positive for COVID because apparently Lyin’ Aaron wasn’t vaccinated even though he suggested he was. Nice teammate. So dumb. Anyway, it’s still the GOTW because we get the intrigue and mystery of the first career start for Jordan Love and what should still be a really good game. Mahomes and KC are off this year, and Gee Bees (4-1 on the road) might arguably be a better team even without their superstar QB. Especially with Pack having played last Thursday and Chiefs on Monday night. The question: Does wise old Andy Reid have enough on defense to make it a tough maiden start for the green Love? An outright upset would not shock, and love Pack getting this many points.
UPSET OF THE WEEK RAIDERS (5-2) at GIANTS (2-6)
Line: LV by 3.
Cote’s pick: NYG, 20-17.
TV: 1 p.m., CBS. “AAAWWWK!” trills the Upset Bird. “New Yaaawwwk!” This is a crazy hunch, admittedly, because a lot points to a Vegas win, including the Raiders coming off a bye and the Giants off a Monday night game. But NYG could finally have back WR Kenny Golloday and (if he clears COVID protocols) RB Saquon Barkley. More than that, I see an emotional toll for Las Vegas. First it was coach Jon Gruden forced to resign over his emails disgrace. But this is far worse: Leading receiver Henry Ruggs III was abruptly cut after a DUI arrest involving a fatality. Awful tragedy. Huge football loss. Major distraction. Biggies played Chiefs tough in a 20-17 loss last week. That same effort wins this game. “Please, Saquon, get cleared and finally play again,” pleads U-Bird. “Saquon Baaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 9: @Bengals (5-3, -2 1⁄2) over Browns (4-4), 24-20: Battle of Ohio used to be the Embarrassment Bowl; now it’s a solid matchup — and one of week’s toughest calls. Make it a venue pick, and expect a Cincy bounce-back effort, especially on defensive side, after last week’s unexpected loss at Jets.
@Cowboys (6-1, -10) over Broncos (4-4), 34-17: Dallas has won six in a row since opening loss and is 3-0 at home, with 121 points scored. Now Boys expect to have Dak Prescott back from calf injury, and hope Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are both healthy, too. Broncs don’t have the firepower to keep up. Dallas is only perfect team against the spread, 7-0, and see yet another cover.
@Saints (5-2, -6) over Falcons (3-4), 23-16: N’Awlins wins with running and defense,
so should be able to absorb the injury loss of Jameis Winston with a (likely) QB combo platter of Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill. Also, Saints on a 6-1 run in this division rivalry. WR Calvin Ridley recusing himself for mental health reasons is a huge loss for ATL. Defenses gameplanning to take away Kyle Pitts doesn’t leave Matt Ryan with much.
Patriots (4-4, -4) over @Panthers (4-4), 20-17: Road teams have won 52 percent thus far, an anomaly, and Patriots at 3-0 away are a small reason. Carolina could finally get RB Christian McCaffrey back from hamstring Sunday, but that was iffy as of Thursday. Likewise QB Sam Darnold’s availability after a concussion. Big upset shot if both play. As is, still hunch Cats with the points.
Bills (5-2, -14 1⁄2) over @Jaguars (1-6), 34-13: Easiest call of the week. Buffalo leads NFL in most points scored and fewest allowed. Only teams to lead in both for a season since the 1970 merger were the ‘72 perfect Dolphins and the ‘96 Packers.
@Ravens (5-2, -6) over Vikings (3-4), 30-17: Baltimore coming off a bye will be stoked to erase the taste of that Jets loss and will enjoy a big rest/prep edge after Vikes played last Sunday night. This could be a shootout if the good Kirk Cousins shows up, but watch for a fired-up effort from Crows’ D.
1⁄2) over
Chargers (4-3), 27-24: Upset! Birds ‘n Bolts could serve up a wild one, a point-fest. Philly has yet to win at home (0-3) and is due to end that trend. Phils’ unpredictability makes this a risk, but Justin Herbert has struggled past two games, and Eagles are a top-10 pass D in fewest yards and yards per attempts allowed.
Cardinals (7-1, even) over @49ers (3-4), 23-21: The rare pick-’em game opened with Arizona favored by 2 1⁄2 but swung even with money pouring in on Niners. Could have been that Kyler Murray is playing through an ankle sprain and had a rare off game vs. Packers last Thursday. But Green Bay was all over Murray’s pocket last week, while San Fran brings the thirdleast pressure of any defense. Cardbirds are 4-0 away and Niners on an 0-7 skid at home. Law of averages scares us on that, but Arizona is simply better on both sides of ball.
@Rams (7-1, -7 1⁄2) over Titans (6-2), 37-16: Sunday nighter was fighting for Game of the Week honors. But then stud-RB Derrick Henry was lost for season with a foot injury, gutting Tennessee. Both teams steam in on four-game win streaks, but Titans sans Henry are a different team. Put it this way: They emergency-signed 36-year-old Adrian Peterson! (Who was on call next, Frank Gore?). With Matthew Stafford-to-Cooper Kupp clicking, and now adding pass rusher Von Miller to Aaron Donald — Rams are legit Super Bowl challengers in a super
loaded NFC.
@Steelers (4-3, -6 1⁄2) over Bears (3-5), 23-13: Don’t like a lot of points with your football? Monday night’s got you covered. Pitt comes in off three straight wins and Chitown off three straight losses, and don’t see those trends reversing here. Ben Roethlisberger is a solid 16-6 under the Monday lights, and Bears defense just hasn’t been the same without Khalil Mack (sprained foot) healthy. Big night for Najee Harris.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of midafternoon Thursday.]
Bye weeks:
Buccaneers (6-2, next @Washington): Tom Terrific and Bucs still lead NFC South after surprise loss to Saints, with favorable matchup on deck.
Lions (0-8, next @Steelers):
Kneecap-bitin’ Dan Campbell coaches NFL’s last winless team, and 0-17 looms a frighteningly real possibility.
Seahawks (3-5, next @Packers): Expected return of QB Russell Wilson from a finger injury next week enlivens hopes for a second-half playoff run.
Washington (2-6, next vs. Buccaneers): A four-game losing streak has the No-Names reeling and (still) wondering what their QB solution is.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
A barely-above-water 8-7 mark overall last week left us still under the .600 Mendoza line for the season. Welcome to my world in 2021: An NFL where the Bengals rout the Ravens one week and lose to the lowly Jets the next. No excuses, though. Spun a solid 9-6 last week against the spread, at least. Nailed the Titans’ upset at Indy and rightly had four ’dogs-withpoints in covers by the Packers, Saints, Steelers and Patriots. Still plenty of time to turn a rough first half into a big season. And we shall! [Note: Thursday night pick was @Colts (-10 1⁄2) over Jets, 30-16.]
Week 8: 8-7, .533 overall; 9-6, .600 vs. spread.
Season: 72-50, .590 overall; 59-61-2, .492 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.