For Democrats, the future goes from bad to worse

Democrats better hope things are darkest before the dawn because they now face a series of challenges that combine to offer a bleak near-term future for their party.

Two trends were preparing to collide in Virginia — Democrats’ growing strength in the commonwealth and in a handful of increasingly influential suburbs, and the midterm dynamic, which favors the party not controlling the

White House. I suggested that the outcome would likely tell us something about 2022.

Well, the results from Virginia and, even more, from New Jersey, delivered nothing but bad news for Democrats.

The results confirm that the midterm dynamic was much stronger this year than were the fundamental trends in both states. That’s great news for Republicans heading into

2022.

Now, the combination of Biden’s weak job approval rating and Democratic infighting on Capitol Hill, with progressives and moderates slugging it out daily over the infrastructure bill, gave Republicans the ideal political environment for this year’s elections.

But that should be no consolation to Democrats, who now have plenty of reasons to worry about the midterms, even after the passage of the infrastructure bill.

The early signs about redistricting are not good for House Democrats, and party moderates could well find themselves poorly positioned to run for reelection next year, especially if Biden’s job approval numbers remain low.

Republicans used “Defund the police” in 2020 to gain a dozen House seats, even while Trump was losing the White House, and it appears the GOP found another effective issue in “critical race theory” this year.

That the GOP could create hot-button issues from ideas advocated by only the most extreme elements of the Democratic Party should have Democratic strategists worried — and looking for answers.

Republicans have apparently done a much better job demonizing Reps. Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib than Democrats have in painting Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar as the face of the GOP. Unfortunately for Democrats, they probably won’t have Speaker Nancy Pelosi to guide their efforts since she is likely to retire next year.

If Republicans capture the House and/or the Senate next year, Biden can wave goodbye to the rest of his agenda. Indeed, if Republicans capture both chambers in a midterm partisan wave, they would be able to work together to pass legislation that puts Biden in an awkward position.

Over the slightly longer term, things get even worse for Democrats.

The Senate class up for election in 2024 represents a potential disaster for Democrats, with at least 10 Democratic-held seats in competitive states, including in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.

Of course, the stronger Republicans look and the better they do next year, the greater the chance that Trump runs again in 2024 and that congressional Republicans misinterpret their mandate, moving far to the right and giving Democrats just the opening they need to flip the narrative.

But until that happens, it’s difficult to see much good news for Democrats.