Nicaragua is sliding toward dictatorship under Ortega
When diplomats sit down this week for the 51st General Assembly of the Organization of American States (OAS), they will be miles apart both literally and politically.
Among other topics, they must address the divisive subject of last Sunday’s elections in Nicaragua, which came nowhere near meeting international standards.
The OAS has been ineffective in halting Nicaragua’s slide into dictatorship. In 2018, Nicaragua expelled human rights investigators, then rejected OAS recommendations for restoring democracy. Last May, Nicaragua ignored an OAS deadline for electoral reforms. Last month, members formally expressed alarm over Nicaragua’s electoral process, but seven countries abstained, reflecting disagreement over whether the OAS should concern itself with democratic erosion that falls short of a military coup d’etat.
THE CONTRAS
Daniel Ortega was first elected in 1984 after toppling the Somoza dictatorship. The Reagan administration implemented a trade and financial embargo to destabilize what it saw as an emerging communist regime, and funded counterrevolutionary forces known as the Contras to attempt to force Ortega out.
In 1990, Ortega left office peaceably after losing an election scrutinized by international observers. However, when he was re-elected in 2006, he proceeded to systematically dismantle Nicaragua’s democratic government.
With his party controlling election authorities, Ortega strong-armed the courts into abolishing the two-term limit on the presidency in 2009. He claimed victory in shoddy elections in 2011 and 2016 that lacked transparency.
His Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) manufactured a supermajority in the legislature that reformed the constitution to give presidential decrees the force of law, put the president in charge of taxation and permit active-duty military and police officers to hold political office.
Ortega purportedly won 75% of last Sunday’s vote, largely by jailing seven opposition leaders, including the serious presidential contenders, and banning three opposition parties from participating. Government employees reported being coerced into voting lest they lose their jobs.
Such fears are not farfetched. In 2018, Nicaraguan police and FSLNaffiliated youth mobs crushed protests over pension cuts. Responding to calls for Ortega’s resignation, the regime killed at least 320 people and jailed many more, allegedly torturing some.
NO LONGER SAFE
Most of those imprisoned, killed or injured were students, urban workers and peasants, but even business leaders who had previously aligned themselves with Ortega’s crony capitalist regime were no longer safe. Some Catholic clergy became targets for regime harassment.
Nicaragua continues to hold at least 130 political prisoners, and more than 100,000 Nicaraguans have been driven into exile and thus could not cast a ballot.
For now, U.S. military intervention is off the table. Instead, the Treasury has sanctioned Ortega supporters, and the State Department has denied some government figures and their family members visas.
President Trump signed a bill curtailing loans to Nicaragua and the Biden administration has signed a law calling for review of Nicaragua’s participation in the Central American Free Trade Agreement.
In 2001, OAS members made democratic governance a right and identified conditions under which the organization can expel an undemocratic member. But that is unlikely to happen at this week’s meeting. In any case, it would just cut off a channel for multilateral communication.
UNDEMOCRATIC?
On the other hand, if the foreign ministers do nothing more than exhort Nicaragua to return to a democratic path, they risk rendering the OAS irrelevant and tempting the U.S. to resume a unilateral role in policing politics in the region.
The foreign ministers should begin by calling Nicaragua’s election what it was, an undemocratic process, and listing the Ortega regime as a de facto government, not a legitimately elected one. They should establish a timetable for implementing measures that would curtail Nicaragua’s participation in certain OAS activities. Nicaragua should have no voice on human rights until its political prisoners are freed.
Shelley A. McConnell, associate professor of government at St. Lawrence University, served as senior associate director of the Americas Program at The Carter Center. She observed Nicaraguan elections in 1990, 1996, 2001 and 2006 with the UN and The Carter Center.