Rodgers tops Wilson in comeback bowl, plus 2 upsets

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 10 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

The Dolphins hosted the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night in NFL’s Week 10 prime-time kickoff — Miami a 7 1⁄2-point underdog. My pick was Ravens both winning and covering the point spread, 34-16.

GAME OF THE

WEEK

SEAHAWKS (3-5) at PACKERS (7-2)

Line: GB by 3.

Cote’s pick: GB 34-27.

TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS. Seattle gets back QB Russell Wilson after three games out injured. Green Bay gets back Aaron Rodgers from COVID quarantine after he lied about being vaccinated. Can Rodgers set aside the distraction? Can Wilson rally Seahawks into playoff chase? Ladies and gentlemen: your Game of the Week!

I give Seattle major upset shot, coming off a bye and with RB Chris Carson also expected back from injury. But Gee Bees are a different animal at Lambeau (3-0 this year), and Rodgers, amped on motivation, should slice apart ‘Hawks’ bottom-five pass defense.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

RAMS (7-2) at 49ERS (3-5)

Line: LAR by 4.

Cote’s pick: SF, 24-23.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.

“AAAWWWK!” trumpets Upset Bird. “San Francaaawwwk!” Monday night gets NFC West showdown made more interesting by San Fran’s desperation to climb into playoff hunt and with L.A.’s unexpected beating by Tennessee last week. I don’t always trust trends because I know law of averages is overdue. Example: Niners have lost eight straight home games. Crazy. Gotta end. Matthew Stafford, playing on tender ankle, faces NFL’s No. 4 pass defense. And SF is a Rams nemesis, having won four straight in rivalry and eight of past 11.

“Counting on 49ers defense,” notes U-Bird.

“’Cause not sure how much I really trust Jimmy Garoppolaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 10:

@Cowboys (6-2, -9 over Falcons (4-4),

31-23: Dallas should rebound after Dak Prescott showed rust in unexpected spanking by Denver last week, but Ezekiel Elliott (knee) is banged-up.

ATL’s season has awakened with three wins in past four games and Matt Ryan (still good) should score enough to stay inside fat betting line.

@Titans (7-2, -3) over Saints (5-3), 28-24: Tennessee’s five straight wins have been vs. 2020 playoff teams, and we’re feeling a stumble is due.

Could be why point spread favoring Titans at home is bare minimum. As Upset Bird caws in distance, make it a low-confidence Titans cover.

@Colts (4-5, -10 1⁄2)

over Jaguars (2-6), 34-16: OK, who was that team in the Jaguars uniforms beating Buffalo 9-6 last week? Feels like real Jags will reappear here, with Colts RB Jonathan Taylor having his way with Jax run D. Indy will limit RB James Robinson and force Trevor Lawrence to beat a Nags secondary that has seven picks in past four games.

@Patriots (5-4, -2 1⁄2)

over Browns (5-4), 23-20: A year ago Bill Belichick was the fallen king. Now? Three straight wins. Top-five defense. Getting just what he needs from rookie QB Mac

Jones. And in AFC playoff hunt.

A coin-flip game, but give me Coach G.O.A.T. against banged-up Brownies now likely also mis

1⁄2) sing star RB Nick Chubb to positive COVID test.

Bills (5-3, -12) over @Jets (2-6), 28-13: Mike White starts again at QB for Planes with Zach Wilson (knee) still limited. Expect big Buffalo bounceback effort after last week’s embarrassing 9-6 loss to Jaguars. Good day for Jets to remind us how bad they are.

@Steelers (5-3, -9) over Lions (0-8), 24-9: Detroit is off bye and Pitt off Monday nighter, but disparity in rest/prep won’t help winless Lions much. Motown has lost five straight in series -and nine straight trips to Steel City. Watch T.J.

Watt terrorize Jared Goff, and Najee Harris slice through Lions’ weak run defense.

Buccaneers (6-2, -9 1⁄2)

over @Washington (2-6), 27-20: Both teams off byes, but Washington is on 3-10 skid following week off, while Tampa is on 10-2 run on road. Still, Washers played Bucs tough in playoff loss last year, 31-23, and I’m leaning No-Name ‘dogs with points again. Tom Brady could be missing Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Gronk to injuries.

@Cardinals (8-1, -10

⁄2) over Panthers (4-5),

1

28-14: Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins remain questionable after sitting out Week 9 hurt. P.J. Walker starts at QB for Carolina, not huge dropoff, because Sam Darnold is that bad. Panthers have won five straight over Cards, but that trend ends. Pick presumes Murray plays; if not, Carolina cover may be the play.

Vikings (3-5, +3) over @Chargers (5-3), 34-30: Upset! (“Aawwk!”) See Viking Dalvin Cook using domestic abuse allegation that he disputes as fuel for big game vs. LAC’s NFLworst run defense. And Kirk Cousins has 11 TDs and 111.3 passer rating in four road games.

Also see Vikes’ pass rush bothering Justin Herbert. Minnesota’s five losses are all to good teams and by 18 combined points.

@Broncos (5-4, -2 1⁄2)

over Eagles (3-6), 23-20:

Denver faces letdown after stunning Cowboys (and bettors) last week. Philly is sneaky-good for its record and upset is in play. Lean on Denver’s D at home, but if Birds can force turnover or two from Teddy Bridgewater (never a remote possibility), the script flips.

Chiefs (5-4, -2 1⁄2) over @Raiders (5-3), 30-20:

Coach Jon Gruden resigns in email scandal, top receiver Henry Ruggs is cut after DUI fatality, now CB Damon Arnette is cut after waving gun in threatening video.

Meanwhile, the magic has left Kansas City, and what the hell is wrong with Patrick Mahomes!? You wanted a soap opera, Sunday night booth? You got one. Vegas a trendy upset pick, but I’m not buyin’. Watch Mahomes put on a show.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday] .

Bye weeks:

Bears (3-6; next vs. Ravens): Chitown is skidding downhill with four straight losses, and it doesn’t get easier with Lamar Jackson on deck.

Bengals (5-4; next @Raiders): Two straight L’s including last week’s spanking by rival Browns have Cincy scrambling to get back its misplaced mojo.

Giants (3-6; next @Buccaneers): NYG’s defense has been improved past few games, but can it stay that way facing Monday date with Tom Brady?

Texans (1-8; next @Titans): Five takeaways in Miami last week and you still lose. Season from hell continues. If it were possible, Houston would lose to bye week.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

This is our 31st year doing NFL picks in Miami Herald — since 1991 — and we’re peddling uphill to avoid one of our worst seasons ever. I mean, Jags beating BiIls? Cue John McEnroe: “You cannot be serious!?” Upsets galore have my overall record still just under Mendoza line of .600, and on wrong side of magic plus-.500 line against the spread. Last week I nailed my Upset of the Week pick with Giants beating Raiders (“Aawwk!’), and had Packers with points at Chiefs, but too little else went right. Example: A close-don’t-count almost in picking Eagles to upset

Chargers.

The good news: It’s only halftime of season. Lot of games left and lots of fight left in us to find our groove and ride it to strong second half!

Week 9: 8-6, .571 overall; 5-9, .357 vs. spread.

Season: 80-56, .588 overall; 64-70-2, .478 vs. spread.

Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.