U.S. warns Europe that Russian troops might invade Ukraine

The U.S. is raising the alarm with European Union allies that Russia may be weighing an invasion of Ukraine as tensions flare between Moscow and the bloc over migrants and energy supplies.

With Washington closely monitoring a buildup of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border, U.S. officials have briefed EU counterparts on their concerns over a possible military operation, according to multiple people familiar with the matter.

The assessments are believed to be based on information the U.S. hasn’t yet shared with European governments, which would have to happen before any decision is made on a collective response, the people said. They’re backed up by publicly-available evidence, according to officials familiar with the administration’s thinking.

Russia says military deployments on its territory are an internal matter and it denies any aggressive intentions, while accusing the U.S. of provocation by sailing warships in the

Black Sea close to its territory this week.

Similar tensions erupted in the spring when the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization accused Russia of massing as many as 100,000 troops, tanks and warplanes near the border with Ukraine. The crisis eased after U.S. President Joe Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin and offered a summit that took place in June.

White House officials didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Russia’s latest movement of troops and tanks toward Ukraine spurred CIA Director Bill Burns to visit Moscow this month, where he spoke by phone with Putin. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also asked Putin in a call Wednesday to use his influence with Russia’s ally Belarus to defuse a crisis over thousands of Middle East migrants seeking to cross the border with Poland into the EU.

Merkel and Putin spoke again on Thursday about Ukraine and Belarus, the Kremlin said in a statement. The Russian leader criticized Ukraine’s alleged use of combat drones in violation of a previous agreement and American military activity in the

Black Sea, according to the statement.

The U.S. warning over Ukraine comes on top of the more recent standoff between Poland and Belarus, a close Russian ally. And it is playing out amid uncertainty over increased Russian gas supplies to Europe despite Putin’s pledge to ramp up deliveries from this week to ease an energy crunch. He’s pushing for European regulators to give swift approval to operate the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, a project the U.S. and Ukraine opposed as a security risk.

Russia doesn’t intend to start a war with Ukraine now, though Moscow should show it’s ready to use force if necessary, one person close to the Kremlin said. An offensive is unlikely as Russian troops would face public resistance in Kyiv and other cities, but there is a plan to respond to provocations from Ukraine, another official said.

With the West preparing fresh sanctions against Belarus over what it sees as a manufactured migration crisis, President Alexander Lukashenko threatened Thursday to shut down a key pipeline carrying Russian gas to the EU if Poland closes their border. “I would recommend the leadership of Poland, Lithuanians and other emptyheaded people to think before speaking,” he said.

Vice President Kamala Harris and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed Ukraine during talks Wednesday in Paris.