Four upsets on the menu (will Dolphins be one?)
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 12 PICKS
THANKSGIVING DAY GAMES
One outright upset and one dog-with-points cover flavor our three Thanksgiving Day picks. Our selections, in Thursday sequence: @Lions (+3 1⁄2) over Bears, 20-16, in an outright upset; @Cowboys (-7) over Raiders, 31-17; and Bills (-4 1⁄2) over @Saints, 27-24, but the home dogs covering.
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
PANTHERS (5-6) at DOLPHINS (4-7)
Line: CAR by 2.
Cote’s pick: MIA, 23-20.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
Plenty of good seats are still available on the Dolphins bandwagon. That’s why Miami is a slight home underdog to a fellow losing-record team despite three wins in a row. That betting line cannot possibly reflect faith in Carolina, which has lost six of eight since a 3-0 start and whose recycled quarterback, Cam Newton, is a poor facsimile of his former self. No, the home dog status plainly reflects persisting doubts about the Dolphins and, by extension, about Tua Tagovailoa. I remain in Tua’s corner. I also think that if the Fins defense that dominated Lamar Jackson two weeks ago shows up again, Newton will struggle. His run ability and fantasystud Christian McCaffrey pose a large challenge, but the Miami defense we have seen the past few weeks can rise to it. Same goes for the Tagovailoa we have seen lately. You know what all of that spells? That’s right. Upset!
GAME OF THE
WEEK
RAMS (7-3) at PACKERS (8-3)
Line: Even.
Cote’s pick: GB, 31-23.
TV: 4:25 p.m. Fox.
Short work on this one for the Game of the Week committee, mainly because the holiday-minded panelists were eager to gavel-pound and repair to
the Swill ‘N Quill Pub to start jack-hammering Wild Turkey. I mean, what’s not to love? Two powers that could meet again for NFC championship. Aaron Donald chasing Aaron Rodgers. A rare deadeven, pick-em game? Packers and Rams both have cooled a bit lately, but that’s only further incentive to return to form in a measuring-stick game. LAR is off a bye but also in a two-game offensive funk. Gee Bees are 4-0 at home and on a 10-1 run there, so go with Lambeau. In Aaron We Trust. (Rodgers, that is).
UPSET OF THE
WEEK
CHARGERS (6-4) at BRONCOS (5-5)
Line: LAC by 2 1⁄2.
Cote’s pick: DEN, 23-20.
TV: 4:05 p.m., CBS. “AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “Happy Thanksgaaawwwk!” Denver’s superior defense plus the home field vs. LAC’s much better offense makes for a tasty matchup in the dense AFC West. As we’re after our fourth consecutive Upset of the Week bull’s-eye, one reason we see this one is the rest/prep edge, with Broncos off a bye week and Bolts off a Sunday night game. Denver also is on a
7-1 run at home vs. Chargers. L.A. lives and dies with Justin Herbert, and DEN’s top-10 pass D should make it tough.
“Hmm. Wasn’t aware of that 7-1 series streak at home,” notes U-Bird.
“Denver Braaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 12:
@Bengals (6-4, -4 1⁄2)
over Steelers (5-4-1), 24-21: Seems weird picking Cincy to beat Pittsburgh in this big AFC North matchup. I feel dirty. But Gals handled their rivals 24-10 in September, and I like them again at home. Cincy’s tough run defense will be up to the Najee Harris challenge. Bet line seems fat, though. Steelers expect to have some injured defensive starters back, notably T.J. Watt, and should stay close.
Buccaneers (7-3, -3) over @Colts (6-5),
30-24: Big test for Tampa Bay, on a short week after playing Monday, and a contrasting matchup of MVP candidates in Indy’s 22-year-old running beast Jonathan Taylor and Tom Brady, who’s old enough to be his dad. Give Colts an XL-size upset shot, but if anybody can limit Taylor and force the game into Carson Wentz’s hands, it is Tampa’s league-best run
defense.
@Patriots (7-4, -6 1⁄2)
over Titans (8-3), 28-16:
Point spread seems too big at first blush, right? It is big for a reason. This will be a game Ryan Tannehill really misses Derrick Henry. New England has won five in a row, and its defense, especially in the air, is great. While Mac Jones steams toward rookie of the year honors. Mike Vrabel is 2-0 vs. Bill Belichick. Call this Revenge of the Mentor.
Eagles (5-6, -3 1⁄2) over @Giants (3-7), 24-20:
NYG lost big Monday night and fired offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. Philly has won three of past four, is finding a groove with Jalen Hurts and has been a pretty good (4-2) road team. Birds also have owned Biggies, on an 8-1 run in this NFC East rivalry.
Falcons (4-6, -1) over @Jaguars (2-8), 27-18:
Atlanta has rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday and hopes to have RB Cordarrelle Patterson back from an ankle injury (a boon for Matt Ryan). Near pick-em game is a coin flip, but the thing I trust most here is that turnovers by Trevor Lawrence’s Jags will shape the result.
@Texans (2-8, -2 1⁄2)
over Jets (2-8), 27-20:
The inherent volatility of bad teams means no result here would surprise, and Houston stunning the Titans last week doesn’t change that. But NYJ is
0-5 on the road and now missing top RB Michael Carter. Planes get back rookie QB Zach Wilson ... but is that a good thing? Texans are 2-2 with Tyrod Taylor, and Jets D has been whipped for 114 points across three straight losses.
@49ers (5-5, -3) over Vikings (5-5), 26-23:
Both teams are hot(ish) and have climbed back onto periphery of NFC wild-card hunt. Minny’s win-path is usually a hot Kirk Cousins prevailing in a shootout, but San Fran — with NFL’s No. 3 pass defense — is suited to not let that happen.
@Ravens (7-3, -3 1⁄2)
over Browns (6-5), 27-17:
Big AFC North duel on the Sunday night platter. Oddly, Browns play rival Ravens two times in row, but separated by bye week. Cleveland and Baker Mayfield are struggling to score lately, topping 17 points only once in past six games. Baltimore expects to have Lamar Jackson back after he sat out last week ill. Ravens are a strong home team (4-1) and should take care of business.
Seahawks (3-7, +1) over @Washington (4-6), 19-17: Monday night stage hosts an upset! Sort of. (“Aawwk?”) I’m getting beat up this year continuing to trust Seattle, and see a breakthrough. Well, I guess I haven’t learned my lesson. Seahawks have lost five of past six, Pete Carroll seems out of answers, and Russell Wilson hasn’t looked himself since returning from his finger injury. And still I am riding with the rise of Russ and a big defensive showing here.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of late-afternoon Wednesday] .
Bye weeks:
Cardinals (9-2; next @Bears): Arizona rode a 7-0 start to NFL’s best record, and now hopes to have QB Kyler Murray back from ankle injury after the break next Sunday in Chicago.
Chiefs (7-4; next vs. Broncos): Kansas City leads AFC West, and last week’s defensive domination of Dallas was fourth straight win for Patrick Mahomes and the surging Chiefs.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
In a little pre-holiday gift we enjoyed our best week of picks in a while both ways, going 10-5 straight-up and 9-6 against the evil betting line last week. We bull’seyed another Upset of the Week special with Washington winning at Panthers, and nailed a trio of ‘dogs-with-points on covers by the Colts, Bears and Steelers. Cowboys-Chiefs hurt us, though. Wrote in the prediction that “my gut said Chiefs” and I hoped it didn’t come back to bite me — because I so rarely change my mind on a pick. Well, it came back to bite me. Still, a bounteous week to lift a tough season thus far. Now let’s do it again and call it momentum!
Week 11: 10-5, .667 overall; 9-6, .600 vs. spread.
Season: 99-65-1, .604 overall; 80-83-2, .491 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.