Pats upset Bills, Giants no gimme for Dolphins
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 13 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
GIANTS (4-7) at DOLPHINS (5-7)
Line:
Cote’s pick:
MIA by 4.
MIA, 2318.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox. We interrupt this little Dolphins victory parade with a buzzkill warning: Miami even with four straight wins is not good enough to take any team lightly, and Sunday’s visit by the Giants feels like a challenging afternoon. NYG quietly has won three of its past five games, with an improving defense that now gets back top safety Logan Ryan off the COVID list. Also expect a full dose of Saquon Barkley, who seems the healthiest he has been all year. Biggies QB Daniel Jones (strained neck) is iffy to play, with Mike Glennon on call, but I anticipate Jones getting the green light. Bottom line: Miami wins if we get the Fins defense and the Tua Tagovailoa we have seen during this streak. The concern: Isn’t Miami due a stumble? A regression toward the mean? Fins’ defense has been lightsout good on this fourgame run, and Tagovailoa has topped 80 percent accuracy each of the past two games — only the fourth QB ever to do that. The Giants, on a 12-3 run against the spread as road dogs, are poised to end Miami’s party if the Fins don’t bring the same intensity we have been seeing.
GAME OF THE
WEEK
PATRIOTS (8-4) at BILLS (7-4)
Line: BUF by 2 1⁄2.
Cote’s pick: NE, 27-24.
TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
The AFC East lead at stake on a Monday night. Bill Belichick’s scorchin’hot Pats (six wins in a row) vs. a Bills team home and with extra prep time after playing on Thanksgiving.
The NFL’s two top-ranked defenses. Hell, the two best teams, based on points-differential. Josh Allen vs. rookie phenom Mac Jones. Dee-licious! It was supposed to be Buffalo’s turn at division supremacy when Tom Brady bolted for Tampa. Now, here’s New England and Coach G.O.A.T. back to lay claim again. (Patriots are pedigreed Alabama while the Bills are upstart Georgia). Games of the Week have rarely been easier calls. Why I like the upset: Streaking Pats are 5-0 on the road (Jones aims to be only third rookie to start 6-0 away), while Buffs are in a 3-3 lull and haven’t won consecutive games since October 10. And Bills are now without injured star CB Tre’Davious White, which is an XXL-big loss. And you’re going to give Belichick points!?
UPSET OF THE WEEK
49ERS (6-5) at SEAHAWKS (3-8)
Line: SF by 3.
Cote’s pick: SEA,
23-20.
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.
“AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Seahaaawwwk!” I self-analyze and recognize I can be stubborn with some pick tendencies. I am not bragging. It is a weakness, and yet I keep doing it. Example: Expecting teams I’m used to being good (like Seattle) to magically be good again. And Russell Wilson to be who I’m used to. And the Seahawks’ major home-field edge to return. So here we go again as I risk my fourgame winning steak of Upset of the Week bull’seyes on 3-8 Seattle. Why? 1) Hawks on a 9-1 run at home over Niners and
14-2 streak overall in this division series; 2) San Fran offensive sparkplug Deebo Samuel is out injured; and 3) Law of averages/plain gut feeling. “The gut knows,” nods the U-Bird.
“Russell Wilsaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 13:
Buccaneers (8-3, -11) over @Falcons (5-6), 31-23: Tampa thumped Falcons 48-25 in September, though it was close in fourth quarter. And Bucs have won by more than a touchdown only once in past 13 trips to Atlanta. Matt Ryan (so much better
when Cordarrelle Patterson is healthy, as now) should be able to do enough vs. TB’s battered secondary to keep this inside the bet-line.
Cardinals (9-2, -7 1⁄2)
over @Bears (4-7), 27-16:
Arizona is 6-0 on the road, all by 10-plus points. Last team to start 7-0 away, all by double-digits: The 1984 49ers. Cardinals a good bet to match that presuming Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins both return from injuries off a bye week as team hopes. For Bears, Justin Fields (cracked ribs) might yield to Andy Dalton again; either way, Zona’s pass rush should dominate.
@Bengals (7-4, -3) over Chargers (6-5), 30-24: First career meeting between super sophs Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert spices this stout AFC matchup. Cincy cannot afford to follow big division win over Steelers with a letdown, because L.A. brings some desperation after four losses in past six games. Look for a ton o’ Joe Mixon vs. Bolts’ league-worst run D.
Vikings (5-6, -7) over @Lions (0-10-1), 24-21:
Both teams missing their top backs in Dalvin Cook and D’Andre Swift, but Kirk Cousins has lots more weapons left than does Jared Goff. See it close, though. Vikes beat Lions only 19-17 in first meeting, and Detroit (7-4 against
spread) has turned losing close into an art form.
Eagles (5-7, -7) over @Jets (3-8), 26-20: NYJ has lost eight in a row to Philly in this occasional series, and has yet to win back-to-back games this season. Why start now? Eagles have 200-plus rushing yards past three games; no team has done that four straight since the 1978 Patriots. And run defense is not the Jets’ forte’. Come to think of it, the Jets have no forte’. Even so, the bet line is a bit of a fatty.
Colts (6-6, -9 1⁄2) over @Texans (2-9), 30-13:
Indy’s biggest threat here isa laissez-faire approach, with lousy Texans sandwiched in between last week’s battle with champion Bucs and next week’s visit by streaking Patriots. Even if so, Colts won first meeting 31-3 and should roll again. RB Jonathan Taylor will hit fantasy jackpot again and be first RB since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2004 with a TD run in 10 straight games.
Washington (5-6, +2
1⁄2) over @Raiders (6-5), 25-23: Upset! (“Aawwk!”)
Washington No-Names have won three straight, all as betting underdogs. Let’s make it four. Vegas has a rest edge after playing on Thanksgiving while WAS played Monday night. Still, D.C. gang has beaten Raiders four of past five, and Washington’s
defense — like Miami’s, like KC’s — has gone from really bad to quite great in past four games.
@Rams (7-4, -13) over Jaguars (2-9), 38-10:
Both teams here have lost three games in a row. One of those slumps is surprising, and about to end. Jax is bad generally and worse (0-4) on the road. LAR’s defense has sagged during the recent skid, but the perfect cure for that is the Jags’ 31st-ranked offense and Trevor Lawrence in the midst of a thoroughly bad rookie season.
Ravens (8-3, -4) over @Steelers (5-5-1), 23-20:
Pittsburgh got routed/ embarrassed at Cincy last week, and a fired-up bounce-back effort at home is likely. Ben Roethlisberger is banged-up, fading fast and now facing Baltimore’s NFL-high blitz rate, but Steelers have a path if a ton of Najee Harris limits Lamar Jackson’s impact. I’m riding Pitt’s 3-0-1 run at home to a cover, at least.
@Chiefs (7-4, -9 1⁄2)
over Broncos (6-5), 28-17: Remember when KC was 3-4 and Patrick Mahomes seemed mortal and the sky was falling?
Hahahahaha! Now look. Four wins in a row, Mahomes is Mahomes, sky still where it should be. Denver quietly has won three of past four, too, though, so Sunday night stage gets a good one. But:
Chiefs have beaten Broncos 11 times in a row. And bye weeks are to KC what spinach was to Popeye. Andy Reid is 19-3 after byes, and Mahomes is 7-1.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday].
Bye weeks:
Browns (6-6; next vs. Ravens): Cleveland just lost to Baltimore, now faces Ravens again after bye in a scheduling quirk. Will
Good Baker or Bad Baker show up?
Packers (9-3; next vs. Bears): Big win over Rams fortified GeeBees’ comfy lead in NFC North heading into visit by division rival Chitown.
Panthers (5-7; next vs. Falcons): Loss in Miami continued skid for a Carolina team once 3-0. Quick aside: The Cam Newton reunion — it ain’t workin’.
Titans (8-4; next vs. Jaguars): Rout-loss to Patriots was latest reminder how much Tennessee — and Ryan Tannehill — miss injured Derrick Henry.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Been a tough year overall for us thus far, but that’s across the prognostication kingdom. Example: My .609 mark straight-up would be fourth-best on ESPN’s 11-person NFL experts panel. Underdogs are 100-78-1 against the spread (56.2 percent), another sign of a turbulent season to predict. We’ve accumulated some momentum lately, though, both straight-up and against the spread, finally creeping back up to .500 ATS. Last week we nailed a fourth consecutive Upset of the Week pick with Broncos beating Chargers
(“Aawwk!”), had a second outright mini-upset with Dolphins beating Panthers, and also had Lions-withpoints on a Thanksgiving Day cover. Let’s keep it a green-light go on the mo’!
[Note: Thursday night pick was Cowboys (-4 1⁄2) over @Saints, 27-24].
Week 12: 10-5, .667;
9-6, .600 vs. spread.
Season: 109-70-1, .609 overall; 89-89-2, .500 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.