Colombia’s new leader Petro will push Latin America further to the left — but not too far

The conventional wisdom is that Colombia’s leftist President-elect Gustavo Petro will help create a new bloc of leftist-ruled countries in Latin America, which would include Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia and, possibly, Brazil if the left wins that country’s elections in October.

That’s very possible, but there are several reasons why this new “pink tide” of democratically elected leftist governments would be weaker and more moderate than the anti-American leftist bloc once led by former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez in the early 2000s.

First, unlike what happened during the world commodity price boom in the first decade of this century, most Latin American economies are bankrupt. Declining growth rates in recent years and a devastating COVID-19 pandemic have left most of them broke, or financially hurting.

There is no money for ambitious regional infrastructure or economic projects, like the ones Chávez promised to finance during his years in power. Venezuela has become one of the region’s poorest countries after two decades of Chavista mismanagement. It is in no position to seek a regional leadership role.

Second, while Petro has promised to restore diplomatic ties with Venezuela, as his right-of-center rival

Rodolfo Hernández had also vowed to do if elected, Colombia’s presidentelect will probably want to keep a prudent distance from Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.

Petro will not have a majority in Congress and can’t afford to antagonize the large number of Colombian legislators who would immediately turn against him if he became a Venezuelan ally. Nearly half of Colombians voted against Petro in the June 19 elections out of fear that he would follow in the footsteps of Venezuela’s rulers.

“Petro will need a lot of political support from various sectors at home, and getting close to Venezuela would only become an additional obstacle to his domestic plans,” Sandra Borda, a Colombian political scientist, told me this week.

In addition, Venezuela has become a source of problems, rather than solutions, to its neighbors. More than 6 million Venezuelans have left their country in recent years, most of them fleeing to Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, overwhelming some of these countries’ schools and hospitals.

Third, a new or revamped Latin American leftist bloc cannot afford to resurrect the populist anti-American rhetoric of the early 2000s, because all of its member countries desperately need foreign investments.

The flow of foreign investments to Latin America plummeted by 45 percent in 2020, which was the sharpest drop in the developing world that year, according to United Nations data.

Fourth, some of the “pink bloc’s” leftist populist governments may be voted out of office as early as next year. Argentina will hold presidential elections in 2023, and virtually all polls show that the center-right opposition is likely to win.

In Peru, the current government is hanging by a thread. And while Mexico’s leftist populist Morena party still leads in the polls, it could be hurt by a declining economy if there is a U.S. recession next year.

Granted, Petro was until not too long ago a de facto Venezuelan ally, and many members of his coalition still identify with the pro-Cuba Jurassic left.

It can’t be ruled out that Petro will succumb to his populist instincts and start out printing money or using foreign reserves to give massive subsidies to the poor, and then blame “U.S. imperialism” for the country’s bankruptcy.

If he chooses that route, Petro could further follow the Chavista manual and present himself as the savior of the fatherland, convene a Constituent Assembly to change the Constitution, and try to stay in power indefinitely.

All of that is possible. But for the moment, he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

And Colombia’s government of outgoing President Iván Duque deserves credit for holding a peaceful election in a deeply polarized country and respecting its results. On that score, Colombia could teach a lesson in democracy to the United States, where former President Donald Trump still refuses to concede his indisputable loss in the 2020 elections.

The main thing to focus on during Petro’s presidency will be whether he meets his promise to abide by democratic norms, not seeking to cling to power beyond his term. That, much more than his possible role in any potential leftist bloc, will be the key to Colombia’s stability, investors’ confidence and long-term progress.