Heat’s tough task starts from within
Here’s what to know about the Heat’s situation entering NBA free agency, including what it might take to keep P.J. Tucker and how it could impact Caleb Martin.
Just last month, the Heat was one victory from reaching the NBA Finals for the second time in the past three seasons. This week, the Heat’s front office will be making critical decisions about next season’s roster.
Life moves fast in the NBA, as free agent negotiations across the league are allowed to begin Thursday at 6 p.m. Signings aren’t allowed to become official until July 6.
Entering free agency, the Heat’s salarycap breakdown for next season includes 10 players: Jimmy Butler ($37.7 million), Bam Adebayo ($30.4 million), Kyle Lowry ($28.3 million), Duncan Robinson ($16.9 million), Tyler Herro ($5.7 million), Nikola Jovic (projected $2.2 million), Max Strus ($1.8 million), Gabe Vincent ($1.8 million), Omer Yurtseven ($1.8 million) and Haywood Highsmith ($1.8 million).
Not including cap holds, the Heat has about $128.4 million committed to salaries for next season with the latest 2022-23 projections setting the salary cap at $123.7 million, luxury-tax threshold at $150.3 million and potential hard-cap apron at $157 million.
That leaves six players from the Heat’s season-ending roster who will become free agents this summer: Dewayne Dedmon, Udonis Haslem, Markieff Morris, Victor
Oladipo and P.J. Tucker will be unrestricted free agents, and Caleb Martin will be a restricted free agent.
The Heat will operate as an over-the-cap team in free agency this offseason since it does not hold cap space.
OPERATING ABOVE THE CAP
By entering free agency over the cap, the Heat has the opportunity to bring back most of last season’s roster by leveraging the Bird
rights of its own free agents to re-sign them.
The Heat holds full Bird rights for Haslem and Oladipo, so it can exceed the salary cap to re-sign them up to their maximum salary despite being over the cap.
The Heat holds Dedmon’s early Bird rights, so it can exceed the salary cap to re-sign him to a contract with a starting salary of up to about $11 million but for no less than two seasons.
The Heat does not hold any form of Bird rights for Morris, Tucker and Martin. That means Miami is limited to either the non-Bird exception, the biannual exception, one of the midlevel exceptions or a minimum contract to re-sign them this summer.
As an over-the-cap team, the Heat has a few exceptions to choose from: the $10.5 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception and the $4.1 biannual exception, or the $6.5 million taxpayer midlevel exception. These exceptions can’t be combined, but each one can be split to sign multiple players.
The Heat would be able to use both the $10.5 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception and $4.1 biannual exception in one scenario, but using either of those exceptions would hard cap the Heat at about $157 million.
A league source told the Miami Herald that the
Heat is looking to avoid the hard cap this year because it would limit the team’s flexibility in the trade market during the NBA’s 202223 calendar.
Or the Heat could opt to use the $6.5 million taxpayer midlevel exception instead, which would not hard cap the Heat. But using this exception will prohibit Miami from using the $10.5 million nontaxpayer midlevel exception and $4.1 million biannual exception during the 2022-23 NBA calendar.
The Heat could also choose to allow most of its own free agents to sign elsewhere and bring in new faces. Miami doesn’t have cap space or the luxury of Bird rights to add outside free agents, but it has a midlevel exception, a biannual exception if it uses the non-taxpayer midlevel, and minimums to bring in outside talent.
THE TUCKER CONUNDRUM
How the Tucker situation plays out will likely dictate how the Heat proceeds in free agency.
The Heat’s love for Tucker has been welldocumented and the organization wants him back. But it appears the front office has drawn a line as to how far it’s willing to go to make it happen.
Tucker, who turned 37 in June, allowed Wednesday’s deadline to pass without opting in to his $7.4 million player option with the Heat for next season. By not opting in, Tucker will become an unrestricted free agent.
According to multiple sources close to the situation, the Heat is willing to offer Tucker a fully guaranteed contract for the maximum-allowable three years using the non-Bird exception. The deal would include a starting salary of $8.4 million and be worth about $26.5 million through three seasons.
But the Heat is not currently willing to use the $10.5 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception to resign Tucker, according to sources, which would allow Miami to offer him a threeyear contract worth about $33 million.
Tucker’s preference is to re-sign with the Heat if all things are equal, but it looks like money will be the driving force behind his free agent decision.
Tucker, like most players, is looking for the most guaranteed money possible at this late stage of his career.
Tucker and his camp believe there will be teams willing to offer him a contract in the $30 million
range over three years using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
Keith Pompey from The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that the Philadelphia 76ers intend to use the $10.5 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception to offer Tucker a three-year contract worth around $30 million. Pompey added that Tucker “will choose the Sixers’ three-year, $30 million offer over opportunities to remain in Miami or go back to Milwaukee after free agency begins at 6 p.m.”
If Tucker does choose to sign elsewhere, the Heat’s free agent options to replace him in the starting lineup are limited. Among the top forwards in this year’s free agent class are Otto Porter Jr., Kyle Anderson, T.J. Warren, Thaddeus Young, Chris Boucher and Bobby Portis.
HEAT’S OTHER FREE AGENTS
The Heat can exceed the salary cap to re-sign Dedmon to a contract with a starting salary of up to about $11 million because it holds his early
Bird rights. The Heat can also sign him using the non-Bird exception with a starting salary of up to
$3.1 million or just bring him back on a minimum contract worth about $2.6 million.
Whether Dedmon returns will likely depend on how much confidence the front office and coaching staff has in Yurtseven potentially stepping into the backup center role. One league source believes Dedmon’s return to the Heat in free agency is
unlikely.
If Haslem wants to continue his playing career, he will likely be back on the Heat’s roster next season on another minimum contract. Haslem, 42, is still undecided on whether he wants to return for a 20th NBA season and will take some time this offseason to make that decision.
Morris might have to settle for a minimum contract or something close to it this summer after appearing in just 17 regularseason games last season because of a neck injury stemming from Nikola Jokic’s shove. It would not be a surprise if Morris signed elsewhere in free agency.
Oladipo’s market is expected to be in the range of the $6.5 million taxpayer midlevel exception. Bleacher Report’s Jake Fischer reported Wednesday that Oladipo “is not expected to return to the Heat and is said to have interest from Washington, Denver and Detroit.”
A league source said an Oladipo return to the Heat remains a possibility if his market remains in the $4 million to $6 million range, with Bird rights allowing Miami to make that signing without having to use its midlevel exception on him.
There’s mutual interest between Martin and the Heat in getting a deal done, according to a league source, but outside factors will determine if that actually happens. What will be left to offer Martin if the Heat needs to use its midlevel exception to bring back Tucker? What will Martin’s market be? Martin and his camp are aware that Tucker’s situation has the potential to impact his future with the Heat, for better or worse.
As it stands at the moment, the Heat holds the right to match outside offers up to the $10.5 million midlevel exception to re-sign him Martin since he’s a restricted free agent.
ONE MORE THING
In a surprise, Dallas point guard Jalen Brunson, who is considered among the top free agents in a weak class, will grant a meeting to the Heat when free agency opens on Thursday night, according to Yahoo’s Chris Haynes.
Brunson also will meet with the Knicks, who are widely considered the heavy favorite to sign him, and the Mavericks.