Dolphins slipping fast in playoff race
The night began with NBC’s Cris Collinsworth speaking of the Dolphins as Super Bowl contenders.
It ended with this sobering conclusion: The Dolphins — per the standings and the eye test — seem closer to either missing the playoffs or just barely making it than playing into February.
The Dolphins’ 23-17 loss to the Chargers on Sunday night left them long shots to win the AFC East and facing the likelihood
Exploring the Dolphins’ various playoff scenarios, both for a wild card and the AFC East title. Their fortunes are becoming increasingly precarious with four games remaining due to the past two losses.
of opening the playoffs on the road against a very good team — if they make it at all.
Miami (8-5) stands sixth in the conference, one game ahead of the Chargers (7-6), who surpassed the 7-6 Jets for the seventh and final playoff seed. (The Chargers have a slightly better conference record than the
Jets.) But the Chargers own the tiebreaker with Miami and have an easier remaining schedule.
And the fifth-seeded Bengals (9-4) not only have a better record than Miami, but also own the tiebreaker against the Dolphins. Miami owns the tiebreaker with Baltimore (9-4), meaning Dolphins fans are best served by rooting for the Bengals to win the AFC North and the Ravens to fall to a wild-card slot.
But here’s the good news: Even with a loss at Buffalo, the Dolphins can make the playoffs by beating the Patriots and Jets, regardless of the result of a home game against the Green Bay Packers.
The Dolphins, beyond the Saturday night game at Buffalo on a short week, play host to the Packers on Christmas, then play at New England on Jan. 1 and close at home against the Jets, who have a defense far
like delivered packages being stolen off your front porch.
Tagovailoa was mostly horrible, helplessly inaccurate, struggling all night. He would finish 10-for-28 for 145 yards. He missed all three attempts on the opening series and it was a harbinger. In the first half he’d been 3-for-15 for 25 yards, worst one-half accuracy by any NFL QB this season.
Coach Mike McDaniel admitted the Chargers’ game plan was better than Miami’s, especially on defense, with an unexpectedly high amount of press coverage to disrupt the Dolphins’ routes.
“If we’re not executing it,” said McDaniel, “then I need to have plays that guys will execute appropriately. Collectively, we weren’t good enough.”
Tagovailoa did not play the defense-surprised-us excuse card, saying, ‘It really just goes back to the details of how we play our offense. It’s very disappointing to go out and do what we did.”
Miami would have been shut out in the first half by the NFL’s third-worst defense (in most points allowed) — one depleted this night by injuries — if Tyreek Hill had not scooped up a teammate’s fumble and dashed 57 yards for the score, speed and alertness turning a mistake into seven points.
Big-play Hill also scored on a 60-yard touchdown pass, the lone highlight from Tua’s arm on a night of futility.
Hill’s 81 yards on four catches gave him 1,460 receiving yards for the year, which leads the NFL and on Sunday broke the Dolphins’ season record that Mark Clayton had held since 1984.
(This was Hill playing on a tender ankle, by the
way.)
Tagovailoa’s futility contrasted with a powerful show by Chargers counterpart Justin Herbert, against whom Tua always will be compared after being drafted fifth overall by Miami in 2020 — one spot ahead of Herbert.
Herbert was better than Tagovailoa their first two years, although Tua won their previous head-tohead matchup in 2020.
Tua had been better this season, though, leading the league with a
112.0 passer rating entering this game and leading all players in Pro Bowl voting.
Sunday there was no comparison. Tagovailoa vs. Herbert 2.0 was a rout.
While Tua struggled, Herbert completed 39 of 51 passes for 367 yards and a touchdown.
Miami’s offense and Tagovailoa also were largely ineffective in last week’s loss in San Francisco,
but understandably, against the 49ers’ topranked defense.
“There’s areas of work that you thought maybe you had down that, ‘Hey, reality check. Here’s what the deal is,’ ” Tagovailoa had said.
So, another reality check? Something worse? Whatever suddenly ails the Fins’ offense, traveling to Buffalo in winter, with snow expected next Saturday night, isn’t the friendliest venue, or spot on the calendar, to find a remedy.
Miami has a monumental decision to make after this season: Spend big to re-sign Tagovailoa long-term and commit to him as their QB of the future. Or decide instead they can do better, by draft or trade.
That decision seemed foregone a couple of games ago on the wing of a five-game winning streak that saw Tagovailoa in superb form.
That decision, right
now, still should be foregone. Belief in Tua should be strong enough to withstand last week and Sunday night.
Has there entered any doubt, though? Even a little?
The onus is on Miami to not blow what should be a playoff season. And that means the onus is on Tua Tagovailoa to finish strong
Starting on a short week. In Buffalo. Surrounded by snow.
“We still control our own destiny,” said tackle Terron Armstead. “Nothing’s changed.”
Except two straight losses, and one of the worst games from Tua in his young career.
We’ll find out everything we need to know about this team — and this quarterback — over the next month.