Home teams have edge, but Boys get the upset on road
AFC SEMIFINALS:
@No. 1 seed CHIEFS (14-3, -9) over No. 4 JAGUARS (10-8), 30-20: [Saturday 4:30 p.m., NBC; weather 29-34 degrees, light rain and snow] — Natural to focus on the quarterback matchup between Trevor Lawrence, who is 37-0 in Saturday games dating to his high school days in Cartersville, Georgia, and Patrick Mahomes, who is, well ... Patrick Mahomes. But the coaching duel also is worth a mention. Andy Reid is 21-3 following bye weeks and should be expected similarly to parlay the Chiefs’ top-seed bye to good use. But Jax’s Doug Pederson is a really good coach who has won in the postseason and who knows his mentor, Reid, as well as anybody. The Jaguars figure to be high-level prepared. But the underdogs were only 4-5 on the road this season including a 27-17 loss at Arrowhead in Week 10, and KC’s sack-strong defense could rattle Lawrence in his first career playoff road game. We also wonder which is the real Jacksonville: The one that rallied to upset the Chargers 31-30 on WildCard Weekend? Or the
one that fell behind 27-0 and needed an epic Bolts choke job to miraculously advance? Mahomes and the Chiefs offer been-here, done-that playoff-proof vs. an opponent with the feel of a postseason interloper.
@No. 2 seed BILLS (14-3, -5 over No. 3 BENGALS (13-4), 27-23: [Sunday 3 p.m., CBS; weather 31-36 degrees, cloudy, light snow]
1⁄2)
— Fresh new game. Scoreboard will read 0-0. But this will feel eerily like a resumption of these teams’ Jan. 2 game that was delayed, postponed and then canceled over Damar Hamlin’s frightening cardiac arrest on the field. The Bills’ safety seemingly has fully recovered and is now Buffalo’s talisman on this playoff run. Both teams are somewhat lucky to be
here. Josh Allen’s turnovers invited Miami’s near-upset, and Cincy needed a 98-yard fumble return TD to top Baltimore. But this meeting is no fluke; Bills and Gals got here on the wing of a combined 15-game winning streak. I expect Allen to not be as careless/sloppy as he was last week. He better not be, because Joe Burrow would take advantage in a way Fins rookie Skylar Thompson could not. I also expect Buffs’ big pass rush to dominate Bengals’ depleted offensive line and bother Burrow. Buffalo is a strong home team, and Cincy has lost eight of past nine trips to Western New York as a dog. Give Bills small edge on both sides of ball along with the sway of a wintry home field. Bet
line does not show Cincy enough respect, though.
NFC SEMIFINALS
@No. 1 seed EAGLES (14-3, -7 1⁄2) over No. 6 GIANTS (10-7-1), 24-20: [Saturday, 8:15 p.m., Fox; weather 29-34 degrees, partly cloudy] — The topseed bye Philly earned was valuable as more healing time for QB Jalen Hurts and his sprained right shoulder. Eagles were 0-2 with him sidelined and need his running threat, not just his arm. To speculation NYG’s defense may target his shoulder, Hurts said, “There’s a bounty on me every week.” Giants entered the postseason on a 2-5-1 skid before then upsetting Vikings last week for GMen’s first playoff win in 11 years. Congrats, now leave. Just cannot see New York conjuring another upset. Hurts’ dual threat gives Philly a massive ground game vs. a beatable NYG run defense that ranked a lowly 27th this season. Birds also enjoy an 11-2 run over Biggies in this division rivalry including 48-22 and 22-16 wins this season. That dominance by Philly includes nine home wins in a row against New York. Leaning visitors with the points, though. Daniel Jones has had a careerrescuing season, Saquon Barkley has had a big year, and the usually underestimated Giants are on an 11-2 run covering the point spread as underdogs.
No. 5 seed COWBOYS (13-5, +3 1⁄2) over @No. 2 49ERS (14-4), 23-20. Upset!: [Sunday, 6:30 p.m., Fox; weather 45-50 degrees, mostly clear] — Resurgent Cowboy Dak Prescott off a five-TD performance vs. Niners rookie phenom Brock Purdy? Sure, the QB duel always tops the NFL marquee. But in this case Dallas kicker Brett Maher has the heat of the spotlight entering this game after missing four extra points in the playoff ouster of Tampa last week. (Boys signed kicker Tristan Vizcaino to the practice squad, though, oddly, he’s a a lousy 15-for-20 on career XPs.) Why the upset? The 49ers on an 11-game win streak are odds-on due a stumble, Dallas has won its past four trips to San Fran, and the Cowboys defense, after a downturn, has rediscovered its mojo. Cowboys also have revenge edge after losing at home to Niners in last year’s playoffs, 23-17. If Dallas’ blocking front gives its QB enough time in the pocket to avoid turnovers and we see the same Dak we saw in Tampa on Monday, we have the main ingredients for an upset. The Cowboys defense intercepting Purdy once or twice would be a delicious and perhaps essential side dish to our pick.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.]
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
Until that unwise Monday gamble on Tampa Bay at home we were 5-0 straight-up and 5-0 against the spread on Wild-Card Weekend, bull’s-eyeing outright upsets by the Jaguars and Giants and accurately calling both Dolphinswith-points and the 49ers’ cover. Kept muttering to myself, “Where you been all year?” with the dazzling playoff debut chasing a tough regular season for us. Nothing to do now but keep it rolling with a perfect quartet in the Divisional Round!
Wild-card round: 5-1, .833 overall; 5-1, .833 vs. spread.
Final Season: 162107-2, .602 overall; 121143-7, .459 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
Greg Cote: 305-376-3492, @gregcote