Mahomes’ magic gives Chiefs edge in a truly Super matchup
GREG COTE’S NFL SUPER BOWL PICK
CHIEFS (16-3) vs. EAGLES (16-3)
Line: PHI by 1 1⁄2.
Cote’s pick: KC, 27-24. Upset!
TV: 6:30 p.m. Sunday, Fox.
Had a dream the other night that Super-mom Donna Kelce was forced to not only say which team she hoped won Sunday, but also which son was her favorite, Travis or Jason. (It’s true; I have weird dreams.) Brother vs. brother, a Super Bowl first, is just one element of intrigue here. If you were to call this the greatest SB matchup ever, you might be called a prisoner of the moment — but you might not be called wrong. You’d have an argument. Just one year ago the Rams and Bengals both were No. 4 seeds who’d had a combined 22-12 (.647) regular season record, worst ever for a Super Bowl matchup. Now, we have two No. 1 seeds in the title match for the first time in six years, and two 14-game winners during the regular season for the first time in an SB since 1998. No Cinderella here. Chiefs and Eagles both have been champions in the past five years. And Patrick Mahomes vs.
Jalen Hurts — in the first Super Bowl duel of Black QBs — lights up the marquee. I get why Philadelphia is a slight favorite. The Birds won their two playoff games in routs (by a combined 69-14 score), while Kansas City won two close ones (a combined 50-40). Philly also arrived in Glendale, Arizona, looking like the better all-round team thanks to a defense that produced 70 sacks — 15 more than any other team. So why am I picking KC in an upset? Patrick Mahomes is this game’s best player at the biggest position. His ankle is close enough to fully healed to afford him the mobility to dodge that big Philly pass rush, and that’s important. The time off also has helped KC’s receivers and secondary get healthier. Andy Reid has an unequaled record of success following bye weeks. Chiefs have won and covered over Eagles three straight times including a 12-point road win last year. Also, Chiefs are stout in the unaccustomed role of underdogs: 12-4-1 against the spread the past 17 times getting points. Finally, Hurts has not put up big passing numbers since his shoulder injury in mid-December, and KC’s run-defense is good enough (eighth-ranked) to force Hurts to the air. Mostly, though, our upset is pinned simply on this: Mahomes being the best player in this game, and showing the world why.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
We have enjoyed a strong playoff run including perfect marks in the AFC and NFC Championship
Games. Now we want a perfect ending in Sunday’s Super Bowl to cap what had been a rough regular season for us in our 32nd year (!) of NFL picks in the Miami Herald. Finish strong!
Championship round: 2-0, 1.000 overall; 2-0, 1.000 vs. spread.
Playoffs: 9-3, .750 overall; 8-4, .667 v s. spread.
Final 2022: 162-107-2, .602 overall; 121-143-7, .459 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.