WISCONSIN SENATORS’ TENURE IN YEARS

Gaylord Nelson

Kohl

Herb

Russ Feingold numbers that a serious challenger would find very scary.

In last month’s Marquette poll, Johnson was viewed favorably by 32% of registered voters, unfavorably by 29%, while the biggest group — 39% — had no opinion, mostly because they just didn’t know enough about him.

Baldwin was viewed favorably by 39%, unfavorably by 38%, with 23% having no opinion.

Of the two, Johnson’s political challenges are more obvious and concrete, partly because his election is closer at hand and the identity of his likely opponent is clearer: Feingold, the former Democratic senator defeated by Johnson in 2010, is expected to run with little competition for his party’s nomination.

Johnson’s name ID is lower than Baldwin’s, which suggests he has had some trouble defining himself to voters. He is also trying to do something no Republican has done in 35 years — win a U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin in a presidential year. The early polling is very sobering for the GOP incumbent. Johnson’s approval rating was only 32% in a March survey by Public Policy Polling. He trailed Feingold by 9 points in that poll, and his deficit was even worse (16 points) in last month’s Marquette poll.

So there’s little doubt that the2016wisconsinsenaterace will be a dogfight. But it’s very possible the 2018 race will be one, too.

That’s pretty notable in a state where U.S. senators have such a history of longevity. The last first-term senator in Wisconsin to lose a re-election bid was Democrat F. Ryan Duffy in 1938. Feingold served for 18 years, Kohl for 24, Proxmire for almost 32, Gaylord Nelson for18. Baldwinisonlythesixth senator to hold her seat since 1905.

But at this point, longevity is something neither of the state’s two first-term senators can take for granted.